| Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast | ||||||||
| time | Y[t] | F[t] | 95% LB | 95% UB | p-value (H0: Y[t] = F[t]) | P(F[t]>Y[t-1]) | P(F[t]>Y[t-s]) | P(F[t]>Y[60]) |
| 48 | 872705 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 49 | 628151 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 50 | 953712 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 51 | 1160384 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 52 | 1400618 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 53 | 1661511 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 54 | 1495347 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 55 | 2918786 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 56 | 2775677 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 57 | 1407026 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 58 | 1370199 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 59 | 964526 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 60 | 850851 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 61 | 683118 | 649618.7548 | 467273.804 | 831963.7057 | 0.3594 | 0.0153 | 0.5912 | 0.0153 |
| 62 | 847224 | 901721.9542 | 712927.2371 | 1090516.6713 | 0.2858 | 0.9884 | 0.2947 | 0.7013 |
| 63 | 1073256 | 1145059.1981 | 955535.743 | 1334582.6533 | 0.2289 | 0.999 | 0.437 | 0.9988 |
| 64 | 1514326 | 1522963.6201 | 1333356.4146 | 1712570.8257 | 0.4644 | 1 | 0.897 | 1 |
| 65 | 1503734 | 1560251.5892 | 1370634.7403 | 1749868.4381 | 0.2795 | 0.6825 | 0.1476 | 1 |
| 66 | 1507712 | 1552114.473 | 1362496.5135 | 1741732.4326 | 0.3231 | 0.6915 | 0.7213 | 1 |
| 67 | 2865698 | 2913973.4641 | 2724355.3767 | 3103591.5515 | 0.3089 | 1 | 0.4802 | 1 |
| 68 | 2788128 | 2732226.8114 | 2542608.7092 | 2921844.9135 | 0.2817 | 0.0838 | 0.3267 | 1 |
| 69 | 1391596 | 1425685.7222 | 1236067.6184 | 1615303.8261 | 0.3623 | 0 | 0.5765 | 1 |
| 70 | 1366378 | 1380616.315 | 1190998.211 | 1570234.4191 | 0.4415 | 0.4548 | 0.5429 | 1 |
| 71 | 946295 | 980000.9625 | 790382.8585 | 1169619.0666 | 0.3638 | 0 | 0.5635 | 0.9091 |
| 72 | 859626 | 886072.4567 | 696454.3526 | 1075690.5607 | 0.3923 | 0.2668 | 0.6421 | 0.6421 |
| Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast Performance | ||||||
| time | % S.E. | PE | MAPE | Sq.E | MSE | RMSE |
| 61 | 0.1432 | 0.0516 | 0 | 1122199426.703 | 0 | 0 |
| 62 | 0.1068 | -0.0604 | 0.056 | 2970027009.5806 | 2046113218.1418 | 45233.983 |
| 63 | 0.0844 | -0.0627 | 0.0582 | 5155699260.1359 | 3082641898.8065 | 55521.5445 |
| 64 | 0.0635 | -0.0057 | 0.0451 | 74608481.4101 | 2330633544.4574 | 48276.6356 |
| 65 | 0.062 | -0.0362 | 0.0433 | 3194237886.8779 | 2503354412.9415 | 50033.5329 |
| 66 | 0.0623 | -0.0286 | 0.0409 | 1971579612.3948 | 2414725279.5171 | 49139.8543 |
| 67 | 0.0332 | -0.0166 | 0.0374 | 2330520435.25 | 2402696016.0503 | 49017.3032 |
| 68 | 0.0354 | 0.0205 | 0.0353 | 3124942887.8966 | 2492976875.0311 | 49929.7194 |
| 69 | 0.0679 | -0.0239 | 0.034 | 1162109162.387 | 2345102684.7373 | 48426.2603 |
| 70 | 0.0701 | -0.0103 | 0.0316 | 202729614.8077 | 2130865377.7444 | 46161.2974 |
| 71 | 0.0987 | -0.0344 | 0.0319 | 1136091910.8459 | 2040431426.2081 | 45171.1349 |
| 72 | 0.1092 | -0.0298 | 0.0317 | 699415069.9256 | 1928680063.1846 | 43916.7401 |
