| Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast | ||||||||
| time | Y[t] | F[t] | 95% LB | 95% UB | p-value (H0: Y[t] = F[t]) | P(F[t]>Y[t-1]) | P(F[t]>Y[t-s]) | P(F[t]>Y[60]) |
| 48 | 872705 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 49 | 628151 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 50 | 953712 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 51 | 1160384 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 52 | 1400618 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 53 | 1661511 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 54 | 1495347 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 55 | 2918786 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 56 | 2775677 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 57 | 1407026 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 58 | 1370199 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 59 | 964526 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 60 | 850851 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 61 | 683118 | 666757.6486 | 482033.9792 | 851481.318 | 0.4311 | 0.0254 | 0.659 | 0.0254 |
| 62 | 847224 | 907834.3747 | 723076.7477 | 1092592.0017 | 0.2601 | 0.9914 | 0.3132 | 0.7272 |
| 63 | 1073256 | 1132803.2748 | 937298.2253 | 1328308.3242 | 0.2753 | 0.9979 | 0.3911 | 0.9976 |
| 64 | 1514326 | 1517698.3824 | 1314593.7088 | 1720803.056 | 0.487 | 1 | 0.8707 | 1 |
| 65 | 1503734 | 1612174.2309 | 1406912.5773 | 1817435.8846 | 0.1502 | 0.8249 | 0.3188 | 1 |
| 66 | 1507712 | 1518723.8305 | 1309845.9428 | 1727601.7182 | 0.4589 | 0.5559 | 0.5868 | 1 |
| 67 | 2865698 | 2968152.9066 | 2757337.2162 | 3178968.5971 | 0.1704 | 1 | 0.6769 | 1 |
| 68 | 2788128 | 2668530.6591 | 2456387.7612 | 2880673.5571 | 0.1346 | 0.0343 | 0.1611 | 1 |
| 69 | 1391596 | 1379824.171 | 1166535.6434 | 1593112.6987 | 0.4569 | 0 | 0.4013 | 1 |
| 70 | 1366378 | 1352947.2325 | 1139053.9222 | 1566840.5428 | 0.451 | 0.3616 | 0.4372 | 1 |
| 71 | 946295 | 954032.0229 | 739779.799 | 1168284.2468 | 0.4718 | 1e-04 | 0.4618 | 0.8274 |
| 72 | 859626 | 855852.2319 | 641187.8392 | 1070516.6246 | 0.4863 | 0.2045 | 0.5182 | 0.5182 |
| Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast Performance | ||||||
| time | % S.E. | PE | MAPE | Sq.E | MSE | RMSE |
| 61 | 0.1414 | 0.0245 | 0 | 267661097.7395 | 0 | 0 |
| 62 | 0.1038 | -0.0668 | 0.0457 | 3673617516.9937 | 1970639307.3666 | 44391.8834 |
| 63 | 0.0881 | -0.0526 | 0.048 | 3545877933.3065 | 2495718849.3465 | 49957.1701 |
| 64 | 0.0683 | -0.0022 | 0.0365 | 11372963.2096 | 1874632377.8123 | 43297.025 |
| 65 | 0.065 | -0.0673 | 0.0427 | 11759283687.1039 | 3851562639.6706 | 62060.9591 |
| 66 | 0.0702 | -0.0073 | 0.0368 | 121260411.2102 | 3229845601.5939 | 56831.7306 |
| 67 | 0.0362 | -0.0345 | 0.0364 | 10497007894.4792 | 4268011643.4346 | 65330.021 |
| 68 | 0.0406 | 0.0448 | 0.0375 | 14303523945.1165 | 5522450681.1449 | 74313.1932 |
| 69 | 0.0789 | 0.0085 | 0.0343 | 138575957.8471 | 4924242378.5562 | 70172.9462 |
| 70 | 0.0807 | 0.0099 | 0.0318 | 180385515.1279 | 4449856692.2134 | 66707.2462 |
| 71 | 0.1146 | -0.0081 | 0.0297 | 59861523.9631 | 4050766222.3725 | 63645.63 |
| 72 | 0.128 | 0.0044 | 0.0276 | 14241325.5914 | 3714389147.6407 | 60945.7886 |
