Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast
time	Y[t]	F[t]	95% LB	95% UB	p-value (H0: Y[t] = F[t])	P(F[t]>Y[t-1])	P(F[t]>Y[t-s])	P(F[t]>Y[72])
60	9.451	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
61	10.041	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
62	9.411	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
63	10.405	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
64	8.467	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
65	8.464	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
66	8.102	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
67	7.627	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
68	7.513	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
69	7.51	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
70	8.291	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
71	8.064	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
72	9.383	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
73	9.706	10.212	9.4238	11.0003	0.1042	0.9804	0.6647	0.9804
74	8.579	9.0258	8.1478	9.9037	0.1593	0.0644	0.1949	0.2126
75	9.474	9.6774	8.7822	10.5726	0.328	0.9919	0.0556	0.7404
76	8.318	8.2862	7.3876	9.1849	0.4724	0.0048	0.3467	0.0084
77	8.213	8.2033	7.3039	9.1027	0.4915	0.4013	0.285	0.0051
78	8.059	7.9646	7.065	8.8641	0.4185	0.2942	0.3823	0.001
79	9.111	7.7904	6.8908	8.6899	0.002	0.2792	0.6391	3e-04
80	7.708	7.5331	6.6336	8.4327	0.3516	3e-04	0.5175	0
81	7.68	7.5186	6.619	8.4182	0.3626	0.3399	0.5075	0
82	8.014	8.3744	7.4748	9.2739	0.2162	0.9349	0.5721	0.014
83	8.007	8.0682	7.1687	8.9677	0.4469	0.547	0.5037	0.0021
84	8.718	9.1868	8.2876	10.086	0.1534	0.9949	0.3344	0.3344
85	9.486	9.8458	8.8211	10.8705	0.2456	0.9845	0.6054	0.812
86	9.113	9.195	8.1421	10.2478	0.4394	0.294	0.8742	0.3632
87	9.025	10.1583	9.0997	11.2169	0.0179	0.9735	0.8974	0.9244
88	8.476	8.4461	7.3864	9.5058	0.478	0.1422	0.5936	0.0416
89	7.952	8.4207	7.3608	9.4807	0.193	0.4593	0.6496	0.0376
90	7.759	8.0823	7.0223	9.1423	0.275	0.5952	0.5172	0.0081
91	7.835	7.7019	6.6419	8.762	0.4028	0.458	0.0046	9e-04
92	7.6	7.5773	6.5173	8.6373	0.4833	0.3169	0.4045	4e-04
93	7.651	7.5556	6.4956	8.6157	0.43	0.4673	0.4091	4e-04
94	8.319	8.3013	7.2412	9.3613	0.4869	0.8854	0.7024	0.0227
95	8.812	8.0938	7.0338	9.1538	0.0921	0.3386	0.5638	0.0086
96	8.63	9.4297	8.3697	10.4898	0.0696	0.8733	0.9059	0.5344

Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast Performance
time	% S.E.	PE	MAPE	Sq.E	MSE	RMSE
73	0.0394	-0.0496	0	0.2561	0	0
74	0.0496	-0.0495	0.0495	0.1996	0.2278	0.4773
75	0.0472	-0.021	0.04	0.0414	0.1657	0.407
76	0.0553	0.0038	0.031	0.001	0.1245	0.3529
77	0.0559	0.0012	0.025	1e-04	0.0996	0.3156
78	0.0576	0.0119	0.0228	0.0089	0.0845	0.2907
79	0.0589	0.1695	0.0438	1.7441	0.3216	0.5671
80	0.0609	0.0232	0.0412	0.0306	0.2852	0.5341
81	0.061	0.0215	0.039	0.026	0.2564	0.5064
82	0.0548	-0.043	0.0394	0.1299	0.2438	0.4937
83	0.0569	-0.0076	0.0365	0.0037	0.2219	0.4711
84	0.0499	-0.051	0.0377	0.2197	0.2218	0.4709
85	0.0531	-0.0365	0.0376	0.1295	0.2147	0.4633
86	0.0584	-0.0089	0.0356	0.0067	0.1998	0.447
87	0.0532	-0.1116	0.0407	1.2844	0.2721	0.5216
88	0.064	0.0035	0.0383	9e-04	0.2552	0.5051
89	0.0642	-0.0557	0.0394	0.2197	0.2531	0.5031
90	0.0669	-0.04	0.0394	0.1045	0.2448	0.4948
91	0.0702	0.0173	0.0382	0.0177	0.2329	0.4826
92	0.0714	0.003	0.0365	5e-04	0.2213	0.4704
93	0.0716	0.0126	0.0353	0.0091	0.2112	0.4595
94	0.0652	0.0021	0.0338	3e-04	0.2016	0.449
95	0.0668	0.0887	0.0362	0.5158	0.2152	0.4639
96	0.0574	-0.0848	0.0382	0.6396	0.2329	0.4826