| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.0105300001854458 |
| beta | 0.669962231605911 |
| gamma | 0.230183992456836 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 13 | 652586 | 636418.067307692 | 16167.9326923079 |
| 14 | 913831 | 896192.363358118 | 17638.6366418815 |
| 15 | 1108544 | 1102247.2895874 | 6296.71041260357 |
| 16 | 1555827 | 1548352.33174958 | 7474.6682504178 |
| 17 | 1699283 | 1690465.5510349 | 8817.44896509731 |
| 18 | 1509458 | 1506785.40594664 | 2672.59405335644 |
| 19 | 3268975 | 2977855.78489077 | 291119.215109231 |
| 20 | 2425016 | 2665014.057907 | -239998.057906998 |
| 21 | 1312703 | 1330826.92605923 | -18123.9260592286 |
| 22 | 1365498 | 1308398.97828921 | 57099.02171079 |
| 23 | 934453 | 952598.069779977 | -18145.0697799765 |
| 24 | 775019 | 899782.207905648 | -124763.207905648 |
| 25 | 651142 | 675561.942234234 | -24419.9422342341 |
| 26 | 843192 | 935001.614313837 | -91809.614313837 |
| 27 | 1146766 | 1136306.48532356 | 10459.5146764361 |
| 28 | 1652601 | 1581738.69477943 | 70862.3052205718 |
| 29 | 1465906 | 1724287.43985791 | -258381.439857911 |
| 30 | 1652734 | 1533971.35068583 | 118762.64931417 |
| 31 | 2922334 | 3070356.99921284 | -148022.999212835 |
| 32 | 2702805 | 2627221.92874222 | 75583.0712577822 |
| 33 | 1458956 | 1344416.46037666 | 114539.539623336 |
| 34 | 1410363 | 1338978.65791867 | 71384.3420813349 |
| 35 | 1019279 | 964751.755333143 | 54527.2446668567 |
| 36 | 936574 | 887491.63827008 | 49082.3617299197 |
| 37 | 708917 | 688256.46196955 | 20660.5380304503 |
| 38 | 885295 | 933440.476482092 | -48145.476482092 |
| 39 | 1099663 | 1159424.32816195 | -59761.3281619453 |
| 40 | 1576220 | 1618305.43853757 | -42085.4385375711 |
| 41 | 1487870 | 1684310.40220131 | -196440.402201312 |
| 42 | 1488635 | 1580616.08870402 | -91981.0887040203 |
| 43 | 2882530 | 3052603.87095771 | -170073.870957712 |
| 44 | 2677026 | 2658594.00170896 | 18431.9982910408 |
| 45 | 1404398 | 1382085.1236357 | 22312.8763643024 |
| 46 | 1344370 | 1363222.1680807 | -18852.1680807022 |
| 47 | 936865 | 980944.136344332 | -44079.1363443315 |
| 48 | 872705 | 897448.364451774 | -24743.3644517744 |
| 49 | 628151 | 686484.423503429 | -58333.4235034289 |
| 50 | 953712 | 910130.063399032 | 43581.9366009682 |
| 51 | 1160384 | 1130045.9865214 | 30338.0134786034 |
| 52 | 1400618 | 1590149.14032963 | -189531.140329626 |
| 53 | 1661511 | 1614652.83871973 | 46858.1612802658 |
| 54 | 1495347 | 1534235.77597549 | -38888.7759754935 |
| 55 | 2918786 | 2986294.39397479 | -67508.3939747885 |
| 56 | 2775677 | 2634320.43200135 | 141356.56799865 |
| 57 | 1407026 | 1358878.82211121 | 48147.1778887874 |
| 58 | 1370199 | 1329983.36121324 | 40215.6387867576 |
| 59 | 964526 | 942069.537452604 | 22456.4625473956 |
| 60 | 850851 | 863635.614841921 | -12784.6148419211 |
| 61 | 683118 | 645188.798904281 | 37929.2010957191 |
| 62 | 847224 | 893781.123067611 | -46557.123067611 |
| 63 | 1073256 | 1109816.32025077 | -36560.3202507675 |
| 64 | 1514326 | 1518750.53056872 | -4424.53056871518 |
| 65 | 1503734 | 1599962.26613267 | -96228.2661326681 |
| 66 | 1507712 | 1498418.13596715 | 9293.8640328527 |
| 67 | 2865698 | 2944714.99113487 | -79016.9911348717 |
| 68 | 2788128 | 2640359.05260156 | 147768.947398436 |
| 69 | 1391596 | 1343968.91022251 | 47627.0897774922 |
| 70 | 1366378 | 1313471.14544594 | 52906.8545540588 |
| 71 | 946295 | 921945.3214322 | 24349.6785677993 |
| 72 | 859626 | 835817.371189578 | 23808.6288104225 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 73 | 629877.173186943 | 446566.48697834 | 813187.859395546 |
| 74 | 859130.609839542 | 675791.583994535 | 1042469.63568455 |
| 75 | 1078564.49881338 | 895169.84602395 | 1261959.15160281 |
| 76 | 1496092.43584574 | 1312605.77898822 | 1679579.09270325 |
| 77 | 1557362.23652193 | 1373738.1453428 | 1740986.32770106 |
| 78 | 1482464.69636225 | 1298648.74420848 | 1666280.64851602 |
| 79 | 2910083.997262 | 2726012.84198816 | 3094155.15253584 |
| 80 | 2660304.35370586 | 2475905.84661075 | 2844702.86080098 |
| 81 | 1340598.85886064 | 1155792.18512839 | 1525405.53259288 |
| 82 | 1311515.08550638 | 1126210.9391425 | 1496819.23187027 |
| 83 | 913267.708003892 | 727368.503663158 | 1099166.91234463 |
| 84 | 826928.088856204 | 640328.21226144 | 1013527.96545097 |
