Structural Time Series Model | |||||
t | Observed | Level | Slope | Seasonal | Stand. Residuals |
1 | 655362 | 655362 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
2 | 873127 | 804406.27082184 | 154723.669794088 | 68720.7291781608 | 0.792697781355015 |
3 | 1107897 | 1106300.63779241 | 252402.523621385 | 1596.36220758613 | 0.434957337664635 |
4 | 1555964 | 1514241.73456812 | 361658.415683747 | 41722.265431877 | 0.490125218979175 |
5 | 1671159 | 1734860.3484634 | 263973.661423062 | -63701.3484633971 | -0.413797651276434 |
6 | 1493308 | 1606381.34090501 | -4624.90868183602 | -113073.340905014 | -1.14966330889672 |
7 | 2957796 | 2589589.23106764 | 673905.400698789 | 368206.768932362 | 2.90713342934293 |
8 | 2638691 | 2870691.93282949 | 403718.869626325 | -232000.93282949 | -1.15615648965043 |
9 | 1305669 | 1764653.85286917 | -634755.495990557 | -458984.852869167 | -4.44410988498884 |
10 | 1280496 | 1125357.48639597 | -637878.215997786 | 155138.513604034 | -0.01336368479863 |
11 | 921900 | 813555.879866967 | -413672.625327484 | 108344.120133033 | 0.959470784768413 |
12 | 867888 | 776975.148368877 | -154394.44314903 | 90912.8516311225 | 1.10956307063684 |
13 | 652586 | 674263.043046014 | -118967.081856123 | -21677.0430460145 | 0.152133840352901 |
14 | 913831 | 817118.296697759 | 61258.5819697072 | 96712.703302241 | 0.783697784612829 |
15 | 1108544 | 1100837.19713463 | 209625.372515429 | 7706.80286536579 | 0.630196214222267 |
16 | 1555827 | 1402058.78521333 | 270175.012414445 | 153768.214786668 | 0.263216866430601 |
17 | 1699283 | 1685824.30765041 | 279252.433134291 | 13458.692349591 | 0.0389643055071494 |
18 | 1509458 | 2025952.93801437 | 319595.258612637 | -516494.938014374 | 0.172020783856121 |
19 | 3268975 | 2693984.92649585 | 549922.935140939 | 574990.073504147 | 0.986118300164544 |
20 | 2425016 | 2455590.5361521 | 27803.9183158126 | -30574.5361520982 | -2.23553728266769 |
21 | 1312703 | 1887240.74215641 | -367364.789519021 | -574537.742156406 | -1.69095075764836 |
22 | 1365498 | 1322291.48772811 | -498337.761627801 | 43206.5122718875 | -0.560523218582173 |
23 | 934453 | 883149.573808813 | -459116.920830713 | 51303.4261911875 | 0.167847623450604 |
24 | 775019 | 614397.046628973 | -333135.170257117 | 160621.953371027 | 0.539354990090705 |
25 | 651142 | 633505.356696755 | -99975.5012616488 | 17636.6433032455 | 1.00094352121685 |
26 | 843192 | 752375.1180169 | 45074.4121396481 | 90816.8819830997 | 0.621717163576967 |
27 | 1146766 | 1071980.14154978 | 225370.486780355 | 74785.8584502215 | 0.769405262070407 |
28 | 1652601 | 1471062.66649309 | 338941.272519458 | 181538.333506915 | 0.488287356705312 |
29 | 1465906 | 1626318.19936717 | 218206.615183485 | -160412.199367165 | -0.518534295037367 |
30 | 1652734 | 2205887.0513771 | 455393.024153812 | -553153.051377103 | 1.0132020947951 |
31 | 2922334 | 2258299.17734798 | 191716.792069279 | 664034.822652022 | -1.12747130476655 |
32 | 2702805 | 2485325.18805572 | 214831.173995149 | 217479.811944281 | 0.0989511868773216 |
33 | 1458956 | 2139065.60149733 | -152861.88521153 | -680109.601497335 | -1.5735927474402 |
34 | 1410363 | 1487508.58642034 | -479723.845052112 | -77145.5864203429 | -1.39878280228736 |
35 | 1019279 | 985788.82587627 | -494133.654961134 | 33490.1741237305 | -0.0616691418951351 |
36 | 936574 | 774886.570754049 | -308681.244396847 | 161687.429245951 | 0.794213859239763 |
37 | 708917 | 691302.90488883 | -161180.411133051 | 17614.0951111694 | 0.632314912301203 |
38 | 885295 | 800990.648054111 | 16266.1649895629 | 84304.351945889 | 0.759309259015327 |
39 | 1099663 | 1017114.00519355 | 146601.339091628 | 82548.9948064467 | 0.557010142357878 |
40 | 1576220 | 1322724.97615436 | 250074.738471735 | 253495.023845638 | 0.443697340126068 |
41 | 1487870 | 1748618.92954088 | 364798.30245255 | -260748.929540878 | 0.492143384365773 |
42 | 1488635 | 2010215.70543693 | 297435.387940513 | -521580.705436931 | -0.288124877467391 |
43 | 2882530 | 2267215.03927763 | 271094.349150533 | 615314.960722373 | -0.11261605030622 |
44 | 2677026 | 2324713.86849076 | 132015.68068011 | 352312.131509244 | -0.595133412978445 |
45 | 1404398 | 2019831.92800452 | -152644.416904091 | -615433.928004518 | -1.21828652838469 |
46 | 1344370 | 1491863.0834769 | -397249.206807545 | -147493.083476903 | -1.04681170718278 |
47 | 936865 | 991231.037070715 | -464609.891981849 | -54366.0370707145 | -0.288320096332715 |
48 | 872705 | 704400.33965669 | -348773.930264242 | 168304.66034331 | 0.496064585459861 |
49 | 628151 | 609708.893552758 | -183123.028457616 | 18442.1064472416 | 0.709492583984835 |
50 | 953712 | 811251.902063032 | 67500.559349857 | 142460.097936968 | 1.07209030823566 |
51 | 1160384 | 1091172.37080518 | 205525.394094505 | 69211.6291948168 | 0.59021365831878 |
52 | 1400618 | 1248644.17487681 | 174338.290685415 | 151973.825123185 | -0.133612392527775 |
53 | 1661511 | 1797784.55866425 | 417973.358493617 | -136273.558664253 | 1.04435180806752 |
54 | 1495347 | 2109124.0009938 | 348610.228706169 | -613777.000993805 | -0.296843977879981 |
55 | 2918786 | 2296705.3753003 | 243985.537439226 | 622080.624699698 | -0.447395909859179 |
56 | 2775677 | 2327785.78883516 | 105763.616429052 | 447891.211164841 | -0.591320956680307 |
57 | 1407026 | 1999944.58436112 | -175778.823400642 | -592918.584361117 | -1.20487951665132 |
58 | 1370199 | 1527005.29415138 | -368766.836215521 | -156806.294151378 | -0.825997988236893 |
59 | 964526 | 1068224.38309736 | -427227.5392875 | -103698.383097364 | -0.250262249191393 |
60 | 850851 | 726189.274193135 | -371883.92026069 | 124661.725806865 | 0.236982799865999 |
61 | 683118 | 681906.495440095 | -158988.6635028 | 1211.50455990517 | 0.9114208249958 |
62 | 847224 | 711405.30237175 | -36586.6819049854 | 135818.69762825 | 0.523566375043524 |
63 | 1073256 | 929423.34310922 | 128451.265812737 | 143832.65689078 | 0.705916124871533 |
64 | 1514326 | 1412776.70478592 | 358337.189786735 | 101549.295214078 | 0.984508139920895 |
65 | 1503734 | 1684675.44722675 | 302288.604466766 | -180941.447226755 | -0.240149735816621 |
66 | 1507712 | 2069108.47664385 | 355589.32001536 | -561396.476643855 | 0.228154245929312 |
67 | 2865698 | 2249922.90292816 | 242260.613353481 | 615775.097071841 | -0.484722179507064 |
68 | 2788128 | 2252724.52923045 | 87120.4015586367 | 535403.47076955 | -0.663634965771039 |
69 | 1391596 | 1969764.57136734 | -152592.210377666 | -578168.571367338 | -1.0257973777182 |
70 | 1366378 | 1535961.71043965 | -334761.549864196 | -169583.710439654 | -0.779759949922907 |
71 | 946295 | 1084296.50474302 | -410508.113419663 | -138001.504743016 | -0.324294377810214 |
72 | 859626 | 782388.239879233 | -340116.397576585 | 77237.760120767 | 0.301390835194068 |