| Structural Time Series Model | |||||
| t | Observed | Level | Slope | Seasonal | Stand. Residuals |
| 1 | 26.663 | 26.663 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | 23.598 | 23.9099438738312 | -0.145493257123716 | -0.311943873831157 | -2.54827016721848 |
| 3 | 26.931 | 26.2824281244376 | -0.084237285576964 | 0.648571875562398 | 3.66394576954026 |
| 4 | 24.74 | 25.2731615062567 | -0.0909120375656528 | -0.533161506256743 | -1.38755908543247 |
| 5 | 25.806 | 25.6860147144119 | -0.0884658297090331 | 0.11998528558811 | 0.755002555175256 |
| 6 | 24.364 | 24.7199386390508 | -0.0932054364562692 | -0.355938639050803 | -1.31484596466244 |
| 7 | 24.477 | 24.5182431443476 | -0.0938227616853697 | -0.0412431443476008 | -0.162528094685261 |
| 8 | 23.901 | 24.0737587113632 | -0.0958225648758893 | -0.172758711363243 | -0.525323112945343 |
| 9 | 23.175 | 23.3883111514334 | -0.0991597518498382 | -0.213311151433393 | -0.883309728849696 |
| 10 | 23.227 | 23.2761208335481 | -0.0992330079741225 | -0.0491208335480953 | -0.0195207436348514 |
| 11 | 21.672 | 22.0540991462679 | -0.105508905657252 | -0.382099146267907 | -1.68200141554214 |
| 12 | 21.87 | 21.8890127328217 | -0.105840078957494 | -0.0190127328217284 | -0.0892495400159447 |
| 13 | 21.439 | 20.7219995326941 | -0.0654872244683674 | 0.717000467305861 | -1.82329726117872 |
| 14 | 21.089 | 21.6298616164651 | -0.0502732722926187 | -0.540861616465087 | 1.32923153904092 |
| 15 | 23.709 | 22.5857868910534 | -0.0327980640884143 | 1.12321310894661 | 1.44640939894623 |
| 16 | 21.669 | 22.4089181401892 | -0.0339794816142006 | -0.739918140189217 | -0.215340831054975 |
| 17 | 21.752 | 21.6565302693959 | -0.0367412075342453 | 0.0954697306040833 | -1.07618171581404 |
| 18 | 20.761 | 21.1444793610909 | -0.0382576366627719 | -0.383479361090862 | -0.711658461962803 |
| 19 | 23.479 | 22.7819689893373 | -0.0324613240488757 | 0.697031010662741 | 2.50834649171618 |
| 20 | 23.824 | 23.685371740031 | -0.0290308900327141 | 0.13862825996901 | 1.4007251565312 |
| 21 | 23.105 | 23.4570699713445 | -0.0297880726024792 | -0.352069971344499 | -0.298272125066381 |
| 22 | 23.11 | 23.0145753879037 | -0.0314406315362483 | 0.0954246120962642 | -0.61792524657582 |
| 23 | 21.759 | 22.2530775559152 | -0.0340597636106526 | -0.494077555915199 | -1.09304716999594 |
| 24 | 22.073 | 21.8758488632407 | -0.0337565157927306 | 0.197151136759326 | -0.513521033435505 |
| 25 | 21.937 | 21.6699704121934 | -0.031632302407181 | 0.267029587806628 | -0.268776697169747 |
| 26 | 20.035 | 21.0538910289568 | -0.0355333274263994 | -1.01889102895675 | -0.846915714290156 |
| 27 | 23.59 | 22.0136127298633 | -0.0232521787322599 | 1.57638727013673 | 1.44049430061271 |
| 28 | 21.672 | 22.1690919260737 | -0.021760298270274 | -0.497091926073721 | 0.266043019209728 |
| 29 | 22.222 | 22.0443040443842 | -0.0222167237328828 | 0.177695955615769 | -0.154272609370708 |
| 30 | 22.123 | 22.6879281477508 | -0.0202416491755771 | -0.564928147750761 | 0.996937062909403 |
| 31 | 23.95 | 23.3203059407243 | -0.0183806862783216 | 0.629694059275687 | 0.976828444103452 |
| 32 | 23.504 | 23.3707076241397 | -0.018166924323485 | 0.133292375860282 | 0.102939118357758 |
| 33 | 22.238 | 22.7302453565663 | -0.0202758606041104 | -0.492245356566294 | -0.931455465010255 |
| 34 | 23.142 | 22.7809217428225 | -0.0200354712681359 | 0.361078257177458 | 0.106224896432298 |
| 35 | 21.059 | 21.8003530294649 | -0.0220450309434394 | -0.7413530294649 | -1.4369839588066 |
| 36 | 21.573 | 21.3729944545975 | -0.0213141203184007 | 0.200005545402458 | -0.607368326279433 |
| 37 | 21.548 | 21.1917605869436 | -0.020490105996537 | 0.356239413056381 | -0.24319351480577 |
| 38 | 20 | 21.2499855181023 | -0.0201793243006635 | -1.24998551810229 | 0.115858167193076 |
| 39 | 22.424 | 20.961027785881 | -0.0226100915519565 | 1.46297221411898 | -0.392231668660288 |
| 40 | 20.615 | 21.03113073835 | -0.0218969533997793 | -0.416130738350035 | 0.137667049326038 |
| 41 | 21.761 | 21.5741868566081 | -0.0191776581688502 | 0.186813143391928 | 0.845176061523454 |
| 42 | 22.874 | 23.1006342252421 | -0.0143099955143369 | -0.226634225242116 | 2.31412555037998 |
| 43 | 24.104 | 23.4799591583622 | -0.0132403149742738 | 0.62404084163776 | 0.589239528844275 |
| 44 | 23.748 | 23.5188578266169 | -0.0130913892711896 | 0.229142173383089 | 0.07804098169099 |
| 45 | 23.262 | 23.71032125325 | -0.0124692551632673 | -0.448321253250009 | 0.306203122849912 |
| 46 | 22.907 | 22.683669167411 | -0.0152408267948709 | 0.223330832588993 | -1.51793330332986 |
| 47 | 21.519 | 22.2329742089913 | -0.0157714185522318 | -0.713974208991317 | -0.65121012348277 |
| 48 | 22.025 | 21.8660911067217 | -0.0152620554508388 | 0.158908893278343 | -0.526188974311128 |
| 49 | 22.604 | 22.1089314718717 | -0.0158323564532377 | 0.495068528128342 | 0.388611942204619 |
| 50 | 20.894 | 22.0634771703886 | -0.0159214802556514 | -1.16947717038861 | -0.04382807882465 |
| 51 | 24.677 | 22.9124313275807 | -0.00990120457494944 | 1.76456867241932 | 1.2697814251387 |
| 52 | 23.673 | 23.9472157706962 | -0.00275739607071673 | -0.274215770696249 | 1.5498775026161 |
| 53 | 25.32 | 25.1752257245628 | 0.00328205261534027 | 0.144774275437234 | 1.83934626952875 |
| 54 | 23.583 | 24.3443657127639 | 0.000468639132286069 | -0.761365712763945 | -1.24868916601695 |
| 55 | 24.671 | 24.1308202968079 | -0.000121263362369449 | 0.540179703192067 | -0.320395485109731 |
| 56 | 24.454 | 24.2096239014603 | 9.20224075463165e-05 | 0.244376098539736 | 0.118150972352006 |
| 57 | 24.122 | 24.2534177093065 | 0.000209486167202335 | -0.131417709306532 | 0.0654181803928903 |
| 58 | 24.252 | 23.9749431976835 | -0.000396904420185131 | 0.277056802316478 | -0.416981700729233 |
| 59 | 22.084 | 23.0188126841712 | -0.00115569525595647 | -0.934812684171176 | -1.42912510387513 |
| 60 | 22.991 | 22.8688146317383 | -0.00102042858324709 | 0.122185368261716 | -0.222935329606623 |
| 61 | 23.287 | 22.8186061034081 | -0.000982496134162667 | 0.468393896591907 | -0.0737330109052842 |
| 62 | 23.049 | 24.0491187469611 | 0.00225664043368671 | -1.0001187469611 | 1.82621206354383 |
| 63 | 25.076 | 23.8188849845659 | 0.000947829594652218 | 1.25711501543412 | -0.34272786785131 |
| 64 | 24.037 | 24.3997340166044 | 0.00445052718185956 | -0.362734016604409 | 0.860346876203648 |
| 65 | 24.43 | 24.1884646810169 | 0.00341171700990598 | 0.241535318983064 | -0.322112305072158 |
| 66 | 24.667 | 25.0546578139837 | 0.00645361408643148 | -0.387657813983669 | 1.29123434046948 |
| 67 | 26.451 | 25.7496312910625 | 0.00839974281878145 | 0.701368708937545 | 1.03082521919458 |
| 68 | 25.618 | 25.5236949850868 | 0.0077938110338585 | 0.0943050149132203 | -0.350831481938617 |
| 69 | 25.014 | 25.1616135192621 | 0.00691482047146723 | -0.147613519262052 | -0.553632614076038 |
| 70 | 25.11 | 24.7050123287359 | 0.00609601742871217 | 0.404987671264056 | -0.693380063964807 |
| 71 | 22.964 | 24.0539351337177 | 0.0056899705948064 | -1.08993513371767 | -0.982644406054295 |
| 72 | 23.981 | 23.8947140958179 | 0.00576155594863512 | 0.0862859041820949 | -0.246838356882303 |
| 73 | 23.798 | 23.701265564031 | 0.00575799303308691 | 0.0967344359690209 | -0.297960586677533 |
| 74 | 22.27 | 23.3304970291994 | 0.0048384061259421 | -1.06049702919939 | -0.559053816946609 |
| 75 | 24.775 | 23.5456962857657 | 0.00583751133477488 | 1.22930371423431 | 0.310959291759101 |
| 76 | 22.646 | 23.1418000378463 | 0.00363890716641139 | -0.495800037846343 | -0.608137306812811 |
| 77 | 23.988 | 23.7585994319623 | 0.00647591523283267 | 0.229400568037693 | 0.915020373500993 |
| 78 | 24.737 | 24.9190513131512 | 0.010618177629562 | -0.182051313151153 | 1.7265217357741 |
| 79 | 26.276 | 25.4087276640587 | 0.0119948593754931 | 0.867272335941268 | 0.717215048222216 |
| 80 | 25.816 | 25.5936796228385 | 0.0124251131642108 | 0.222320377161543 | 0.258940990301349 |
| 81 | 25.21 | 25.3413865536301 | 0.0118618286145222 | -0.131386553630085 | -0.39618774388645 |
| 82 | 25.199 | 24.8130830673561 | 0.0110575054200884 | 0.385916932643858 | -0.807916806960052 |
| 83 | 23.162 | 24.3484172295557 | 0.010786560167109 | -1.1864172295557 | -0.711296855086969 |
| 84 | 24.707 | 24.4708833406098 | 0.01077948479453 | 0.236116659390209 | 0.167064541936411 |
| 85 | 24.364 | 24.24830163735 | 0.0106659047068575 | 0.115698362650052 | -0.348632059018508 |
| 86 | 22.644 | 23.857386592273 | 0.00973223264762702 | -1.21338659227298 | -0.596746782442913 |
| 87 | 25.565 | 24.1144606832406 | 0.0107567227389941 | 1.45053931675942 | 0.366327510616854 |
| 88 | 24.062 | 24.6006629979826 | 0.0130456616302528 | -0.538662997982631 | 0.706059499255806 |
| 89 | 25.431 | 25.3050598137222 | 0.0160846552291618 | 0.125940186277837 | 1.03131762203851 |
| 90 | 24.635 | 25.0948259109506 | 0.0152748268811678 | -0.459825910950576 | -0.338505290974979 |
| 91 | 27.009 | 25.8858427588907 | 0.0175123810459419 | 1.12315724110929 | 1.16128955286676 |
| 92 | 26.606 | 26.2262632488699 | 0.0182877473804285 | 0.379736751130108 | 0.483410739184194 |
| 93 | 26.268 | 26.257426032615 | 0.0183127334548275 | 0.0105739673850437 | 0.0192668863493533 |
| 94 | 26.462 | 26.046379579517 | 0.0180117915649247 | 0.41562042048302 | -0.343012308870505 |
| 95 | 25.246 | 26.3388623215074 | 0.0181722910162109 | -1.0928623215074 | 0.410359363520408 |
| 96 | 25.18 | 25.2847320261391 | 0.0179381423460061 | -0.104732026139075 | -1.60335113117077 |
| 97 | 24.657 | 24.6270847200076 | 0.0174102305849696 | 0.0299152799924235 | -1.00864248791852 |
| 98 | 23.304 | 24.5790713168279 | 0.0172638690016743 | -1.27507131682786 | -0.0972795389921929 |
| 99 | 26.982 | 25.3771719509797 | 0.0201554408929024 | 1.60482804902034 | 1.15807983408682 |
| 100 | 26.199 | 26.5257778675821 | 0.0250807062710898 | -0.326777867582075 | 1.67676476154501 |
| 101 | 27.21 | 26.9611871600997 | 0.0267847270467564 | 0.248812839900257 | 0.611978537530466 |
| 102 | 26.122 | 26.8792323760079 | 0.0264027480912995 | -0.757232376007852 | -0.162596899513283 |
| 103 | 26.706 | 26.0178003612309 | 0.0238624963377148 | 0.688199638769057 | -1.32890562515921 |
| 104 | 26.878 | 26.3405909853844 | 0.0245569729802115 | 0.537409014615588 | 0.447464660446187 |
| 105 | 26.152 | 26.17919213881 | 0.0242213809727881 | -0.0271921388100193 | -0.278239456751393 |
| 106 | 26.379 | 26.0334388659153 | 0.0240163048379558 | 0.345561134084705 | -0.254180436494197 |
| 107 | 24.712 | 25.6204488508184 | 0.0237408524645672 | -0.908448850818366 | -0.653313126500992 |
| 108 | 25.688 | 25.5878789883918 | 0.0237164787296887 | 0.100121011608176 | -0.0841687544091445 |
| 109 | 24.99 | 25.1458651893477 | 0.0232626917027503 | -0.155865189347671 | -0.695079440936951 |
| 110 | 24.239 | 25.5938791409412 | 0.0241817030870885 | -1.35487914094121 | 0.631887311171903 |
| 111 | 26.721 | 25.5114467386389 | 0.023822172757097 | 1.20955326136112 | -0.158289654750847 |
| 112 | 23.475 | 24.3479231721384 | 0.0190789158603346 | -0.872923172138427 | -1.76523767286483 |
| 113 | 24.767 | 24.381471636534 | 0.0191355518479084 | 0.385528363466003 | 0.0215784844809203 |
| 114 | 26.219 | 26.1048510719195 | 0.0249506500288086 | 0.11414892808048 | 2.54771368311839 |
| 115 | 28.361 | 27.3752386297808 | 0.0284524135637301 | 0.985761370219194 | 1.86383684927162 |
| 116 | 28.599 | 27.897052699391 | 0.0295633870016155 | 0.701947300608991 | 0.738412247911416 |
| 117 | 27.914 | 27.9242303765134 | 0.0295593118153331 | -0.0102303765133958 | -0.00356922758420598 |
| 118 | 27.784 | 27.5064718429499 | 0.0290451074775921 | 0.277528157050088 | -0.668872777558689 |
| 119 | 25.693 | 26.8268157667837 | 0.0285567942443948 | -1.13381576678367 | -1.05940023878019 |
| 120 | 26.881 | 26.6968910611075 | 0.0284619839818686 | 0.184108938892534 | -0.236823750154117 |
| 121 | 26.217 | 26.5346131187004 | 0.0282513071243827 | -0.317613118700387 | -0.284614424072266 |
| 122 | 24.218 | 25.757081375403 | 0.0265603033283388 | -1.53908137540298 | -1.19924249738494 |
| 123 | 27.914 | 26.1671894927912 | 0.0277543020789024 | 1.74681050720885 | 0.569925993657667 |
| 124 | 26.975 | 27.460631292409 | 0.0324203639583525 | -0.485631292408961 | 1.88264534817608 |
| 125 | 28.527 | 28.3904294613171 | 0.0357294209798031 | 0.136570538682921 | 1.33824688115121 |
| 126 | 27.139 | 27.7147217970959 | 0.0333881100235869 | -0.575721797095925 | -1.06332261405036 |
| 127 | 28.982 | 28.0049776774729 | 0.0340929516283749 | 0.977022322527148 | 0.384337720768079 |
| 128 | 28.169 | 27.628874263857 | 0.0331963318244407 | 0.540125736142991 | -0.613846255332192 |
| 129 | 28.056 | 27.8292313651363 | 0.0334705687487349 | 0.226768634863676 | 0.250057988148892 |
| 130 | 29.136 | 28.4446612509366 | 0.0341250595459903 | 0.691338749063383 | 0.87014409643674 |
| 131 | 26.291 | 27.6949273568523 | 0.0335356930381984 | -1.40392735685234 | -1.17165063373207 |
| 132 | 26.987 | 26.9551662575831 | 0.0329728509477219 | 0.03183374241687 | -1.15533771415238 |
| 133 | 26.589 | 26.7480136005867 | 0.0326860723340205 | -0.159013600586663 | -0.358271692393963 |
| 134 | 24.848 | 26.6025328963947 | 0.0323227236502204 | -1.75453289639472 | -0.265261785165476 |
| 135 | 27.543 | 26.2932385981878 | 0.0313309115282377 | 1.24976140181218 | -0.507961246183277 |
| 136 | 26.896 | 27.2306643555124 | 0.0344350277190345 | -0.334664355512427 | 1.34837248909122 |
| 137 | 28.878 | 28.2383718157817 | 0.0378181858871647 | 0.639628184218336 | 1.45148096883421 |
| 138 | 27.39 | 28.1310379676912 | 0.0373595414983241 | -0.74103796769124 | -0.216908432769433 |
| 139 | 28.065 | 27.3122049858656 | 0.0350777919865725 | 0.752795014134416 | -1.28082855018742 |
| 140 | 28.141 | 27.5542888083796 | 0.0355175386307825 | 0.586711191620382 | 0.309729266235997 |
| 141 | 29.048 | 28.5851892700132 | 0.0371035819588214 | 0.462810729986758 | 1.48884091627786 |
| 142 | 28.484 | 27.8817396514617 | 0.0362740060592594 | 0.602260348538309 | -1.10720146646902 |
| 143 | 26.634 | 27.8096398102291 | 0.0361857794128094 | -1.17563981022908 | -0.161975612083597 |
| 144 | 27.735 | 27.6818673945963 | 0.0360495299165969 | 0.0531326054037447 | -0.24492547979944 |
| 145 | 27.132 | 27.3545852263745 | 0.0355927840488247 | -0.222585226374506 | -0.542079914484309 |
| 146 | 24.924 | 26.8201725730314 | 0.0344614747764748 | -1.89617257303136 | -0.848919978980887 |
| 147 | 28.963 | 27.6664514044892 | 0.0366768759884062 | 1.29654859551079 | 1.20778960779495 |
| 148 | 26.589 | 27.35576456993 | 0.0355645675981317 | -0.766764569930009 | -0.517123097980941 |
| 149 | 27.931 | 27.246037341841 | 0.0350878865921968 | 0.684962658159047 | -0.216693894082161 |
| 150 | 28.009 | 28.1804407938568 | 0.0378088533581626 | -0.17144079385683 | 1.34370463076893 |
| 151 | 29.229 | 28.5159079979993 | 0.0385768135209909 | 0.713092002000697 | 0.445201669692726 |
| 152 | 28.759 | 28.4664335039882 | 0.0383948399444255 | 0.292566496011784 | -0.131724555260434 |
| 153 | 28.405 | 27.9469191468645 | 0.0375243481337329 | 0.458080853135484 | -0.834401836458154 |
| 154 | 27.945 | 27.4708879299071 | 0.0369449331848008 | 0.474112070092938 | -0.767767709464731 |
| 155 | 25.912 | 27.1349804002523 | 0.0366193825580154 | -1.22298040025235 | -0.557223704298971 |
| 156 | 26.619 | 26.6236298883876 | 0.0361184261661485 | -0.00462988838763216 | -0.818487814399214 |
| 157 | 26.076 | 26.2800215327418 | 0.0356242542482915 | -0.204021532741826 | -0.566544390503058 |
| 158 | 25.286 | 27.073679876714 | 0.0370902296800454 | -1.78767987671398 | 1.12927727485079 |
| 159 | 27.66 | 26.5231272063774 | 0.0355736378251314 | 1.13687279362259 | -0.874682338456415 |
| 160 | 25.951 | 26.6499328473361 | 0.0358480546098511 | -0.698932847336072 | 0.135866009766722 |
| 161 | 26.398 | 26.1769694074365 | 0.0342699355335864 | 0.221030592563489 | -0.758923920146858 |
| 162 | 25.565 | 25.9072672625579 | 0.0333905125967024 | -0.342267262557935 | -0.454125284544251 |
| 163 | 28.865 | 27.4992176162415 | 0.0372757672056334 | 1.36578238375847 | 2.33070222760887 |
| 164 | 30 | 29.048818602863 | 0.0403192233603706 | 0.951181397136995 | 2.262091407464 |
| 165 | 29.261 | 28.8307973909661 | 0.0399222851381971 | 0.430202609033902 | -0.386331072930841 |
| 166 | 29.012 | 28.5304913674538 | 0.0395333145715492 | 0.481508632546165 | -0.508610238969805 |
| 167 | 26.992 | 28.1869436279181 | 0.0391779379170135 | -1.19494362791812 | -0.572471109939581 |
| 168 | 27.897 | 27.9277773856086 | 0.0388849631527044 | -0.0307773856085538 | -0.445594988204972 |
