| ARIMA Parameter Estimation and Backward Selection | ||||
| Iteration | ar1 | ma1 | sar1 | sma1 |
| Estimates ( 1 ) | 0.9357 | -0.8125 | 0.392 | -0.8776 |
| (p-val) | (0 ) | (0 ) | (0 ) | (0 ) |
| Estimates ( 2 ) | 0.9518 | -0.8288 | 0 | -0.5436 |
| (p-val) | (0 ) | (0 ) | (NA ) | (0 ) |
| Estimates ( 3 ) | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| (p-val) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) |
| Estimates ( 4 ) | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| (p-val) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) |
| Estimates ( 5 ) | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| (p-val) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) |
| Estimates ( 6 ) | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| (p-val) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) |
| Estimates ( 7 ) | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| (p-val) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) |
| Estimated ARIMA Residuals |
| Value |
| -13056.4522737042 |
| 136057.678950088 |
| 8516.17177346181 |
| 52090.0206378783 |
| 50342.1985390949 |
| 40668.5030595184 |
| 28356.4022588335 |
| -36182.9422590039 |
| -67508.2577355029 |
| -48540.0281856933 |
| 31248.6717036706 |
| 28895.7333847505 |
| 76000.287272498 |
| 32471.6834263973 |
| -78920.1993499883 |
| -106932.6194818 |
| -75196.4932864015 |
| -33490.5849698421 |
| 51520.6485217457 |
| -7763.46997312628 |
| -11421.1424296288 |
| 33840.8477708085 |
| 59034.7666764397 |
| -19552.5816541873 |
| -38337.8112897057 |
| -19522.1545246061 |
| -79800.2367146586 |
| -34156.6745468722 |
| -79980.4911829013 |
| 18173.9179471509 |
| 16004.7349986231 |
| 115625.17063697 |
| 960.128145623028 |
| -60144.284909074 |
| -222052.651349645 |
| -155903.294381489 |
| -21508.1051100921 |
| -59217.3908269369 |
| -60473.8627846329 |
| -90949.3861444994 |
| 80094.4058080343 |
| -51297.8798923059 |
| 74144.0459254381 |
| 193501.597975771 |
| -139438.976437371 |
| -19960.2987826408 |
| 57684.3254981607 |
| -143136.548488348 |
| 319163.817386523 |
| -229504.743563307 |
| -214214.413960464 |
| -168326.175462681 |
| -130967.204166532 |
| -228626.121146766 |
| -98948.0479407119 |
| -98441.582518425 |
| 69574.7120837452 |
| 3340.998807359 |
| -34358.4225572672 |
| 212042.287513694 |
| -107019.470088783 |
| 26170.4961125073 |
| 90570.0328701657 |
| 82296.2627719322 |
| 83880.1955792632 |
| 170395.87415504 |
| -168953.154771427 |
| -114040.266082248 |
| 61058.6034929853 |
| 276874.824741477 |
| -132673.652613887 |
| 131280.308920334 |
| -57800.5881398433 |
| -118688.185079877 |
| 27598.8378001248 |
| -9972.47477313409 |
| -51414.7564119333 |
| 9523.44969199469 |
| -32721.2102189495 |
| -171482.191411255 |
| -22452.6473723317 |
| -76641.6916239074 |
| 29098.4357198671 |
| -61167.5170202092 |
| -22129.9013750078 |
| 41058.9775248538 |
| -43684.3977292978 |
| -17676.0246711135 |
| -22501.7071754594 |
| 27379.5410074872 |
| -320.676305691589 |
| -65135.0304530386 |
| -132313.733833658 |
| -46511.799821846 |
| 53174.0353556732 |
| 28228.641635536 |
| -22436.4716780178 |
| 44350.9824762353 |
| 151500.59591357 |
| -115273.046147698 |
| 29600.4789729812 |
| 16185.7788940102 |
| -103437.292773059 |
| 86970.7409949462 |
| -131209.982951012 |
| 8067.38377109442 |
| 35977.8195228367 |
| 25709.320275586 |
| 19340.2192394713 |
| 25978.5316500052 |
| -31871.9814004459 |
| 88602.6113769982 |
| 12839.3613720779 |
| 75172.0046376649 |
| 1973.52038286528 |
| -83380.7661876033 |
| 56156.4494336414 |
| 46240.7492210611 |
| 53287.1967346657 |
| 67041.1986946841 |
| 1135.42730975719 |
| 139555.109139115 |
| -41699.8943415323 |
| 40211.529546775 |
| -12569.5707536795 |
| 23504.8153644608 |
| -57253.6455622817 |
| 51012.0714929989 |
| -49628.8290348449 |
| 57094.7206014521 |
| -8022.71470379592 |
| 37958.8161953771 |
| 13603.8859199242 |
| -36799.2468731374 |
| 53340.9543154803 |
| 68991.5636293915 |
| -30430.244194791 |
| 79710.9058769931 |
| -39791.4841212732 |
| 14832.7126972866 |
| -20299.8697661671 |
| -18408.0842059925 |
| 75589.8148210969 |
| 136009.677740612 |
| 38167.2432715221 |
| 117529.319089409 |
| -15741.7444782381 |
| 25764.8177133278 |
| 34719.3800376744 |
| 32023.7414276627 |
| 68125.6090459169 |
| 48124.0163644445 |
| 27985.4048856282 |
| -139781.161067222 |
| 2279.93174279923 |
| -79599.1223057203 |
| -22825.2286526572 |
| -52919.3495196592 |
| -74213.6307703062 |
| -50002.1835070927 |
| -37370.3037288217 |
| -37575.8991733853 |
| -114380.606719831 |
| 82013.3247072901 |
| -72550.699825546 |
| -62148.4743594296 |
| -121645.424108756 |
| 25403.0609294192 |
| 34299.9212176062 |
| 48965.6774897281 |
| -46329.7755160184 |
| 47351.5769511977 |
| -46879.7408218744 |
| 36411.1438666025 |
| 74502.2809755765 |
| 87383.2802611104 |
| 26235.6170743229 |
| 43280.9429371225 |
| -127999.066443401 |
| 48766.079588569 |
| 73881.1984360899 |
| -143532.00185717 |
| -97887.6341508462 |
| -11181.3546613086 |
| -125729.03528115 |
| -131512.427493356 |
| 72769.1336776737 |
| 69103.799619582 |
| -145501.297119575 |
| -186945.423773133 |
| 45150.6812759888 |
| -7820.43976643423 |
| -15585.1280837641 |
| 148365.928433005 |
| 112264.512491118 |
| 28737.9302560081 |
| -8898.12066982704 |
| 169047.657014527 |
| -106704.828820119 |
| -1953.68641876296 |
| -5262.98174271657 |
| -167793.312710583 |
| -78736.938389052 |
| 38519.1355146464 |
| -58434.2896495098 |
| 68786.223923623 |
| -17643.6847236187 |
| -51195.9464377459 |
| -9777.45156160033 |
| -100268.750976111 |
| 6266.39720789632 |
| 234743.45286824 |
| -156038.473672548 |
| -235268.967100043 |
| -60717.843777009 |
| 59570.7156426713 |
| 89526.762259111 |
| -2396.84192790752 |
| 51145.019268289 |
| -19644.9997934698 |
| 58702.2557656673 |
| 14311.3111340605 |
| -33588.8519651581 |
| 71683.6505799005 |
| -159970.476311903 |
| 1656.28920582696 |
| -65610.0458048172 |
| -40516.4801762376 |
| 30898.943592265 |
| 5943.6009818652 |
| -77673.3133917464 |
| 146518.681829276 |
| -51223.4544227896 |
| 20008.5856297382 |
| -23690.014119882 |
| 153557.511968536 |
| -101381.429167831 |
| 1931.9760175888 |
| -97973.3102777271 |
| -75321.7542625035 |
| 129666.912757219 |
| 81031.4503276655 |
| 67873.1438542881 |
| 38021.1315109704 |
| 86276.5875977767 |
| -58436.4116460555 |
| 12321.7336502982 |
| -33698.1871393018 |
| 269468.557051028 |
| 28122.6397291218 |
| -305872.829994777 |
| 5749.8088421556 |
| 16845.1787613899 |
| 115379.57356233 |
| 124488.58296716 |
| -60048.6745769053 |
| 17161.6825940089 |
| 48364.9934621389 |
| 123467.193816315 |
| -298832.070563612 |
| 6112.12522321426 |
| 112547.421175335 |
| 193615.644137503 |
| -9650.72308167436 |
| 27711.7531522518 |
| 21451.7763945977 |
| -10883.527868143 |
| 105949.8544106 |
| -40719.6930545845 |
| 78251.8118891052 |
| 70259.4882131602 |
| -125581.558376548 |
| 20095.5310892095 |
| -106679.443474642 |
| -127110.891820949 |
| 83466.7083801718 |
| 44836.0045210325 |
| 52288.9311721714 |
| 46599.7457781648 |
| -140432.044500866 |
| 30111.4578074525 |
| 58043.5829371846 |
| -115764.258290839 |
| 37432.296524056 |
| 98015.0771370817 |
| 162835.619732252 |
| -62213.7779715256 |
| -86210.567362111 |
| -176436.134030323 |
| 63125.3387431115 |
| 58691.9842096806 |
| -30900.4111171688 |
| 41860.890612981 |
| -23719.7368291461 |
| 4036.1118928982 |
| -172711.737919261 |
| 40588.1138377847 |
| -162255.970350158 |
| 10283.1174771379 |
| 22610.9262076355 |
