| Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast | ||||||||
| time | Y[t] | F[t] | 95% LB | 95% UB | p-value (H0: Y[t] = F[t]) | P(F[t]>Y[t-1]) | P(F[t]>Y[t-s]) | P(F[t]>Y[66]) |
| 54 | 1495347 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 55 | 2918786 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 56 | 2775677 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 57 | 1407026 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 58 | 1370199 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 59 | 964526 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 60 | 850851 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 61 | 683118 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 62 | 847224 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 63 | 1073256 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 64 | 1514326 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 65 | 1503734 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 66 | 1507712 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 67 | 2865698 | 2901953.7363 | 2713195.0731 | 3090712.3995 | 0.3533 | 1 | 0.4306 | 1 |
| 68 | 2788128 | 2729584.0849 | 2536383.5384 | 2922784.6313 | 0.2763 | 0.0837 | 0.32 | 1 |
| 69 | 1391596 | 1405798.114 | 1212597.5675 | 1598998.6605 | 0.4427 | 0 | 0.495 | 0.1506 |
| 70 | 1366378 | 1358130.8618 | 1164930.3153 | 1551331.4082 | 0.4667 | 0.3671 | 0.4513 | 0.0646 |
| 71 | 946295 | 951601.8925 | 758401.3461 | 1144802.439 | 0.4785 | 0 | 0.4478 | 0 |
| 72 | 859626 | 861061.8906 | 667861.3441 | 1054262.437 | 0.4942 | 0.1936 | 0.5413 | 0 |
| Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast Performance | ||||||
| time | % S.E. | PE | MAPE | Sq.E | MSE | RMSE |
| 67 | 0.0332 | -0.0125 | 0 | 1314478416.0565 | 0 | 0 |
| 68 | 0.0361 | 0.0214 | 0.017 | 3427389997.1706 | 2370934206.6136 | 48692.2397 |
| 69 | 0.0701 | -0.0101 | 0.0147 | 201700042.3165 | 1647856151.8479 | 40593.7945 |
| 70 | 0.0726 | 0.0061 | 0.0125 | 68015288.9876 | 1252895936.1328 | 35396.2701 |
| 71 | 0.1036 | -0.0056 | 0.0111 | 28163108.4309 | 1007949370.5924 | 31748.2184 |
| 72 | 0.1145 | -0.0017 | 0.0096 | 2061781.7679 | 840301439.1217 | 28987.9533 |
