| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.933720312558662 |
| beta | 0.158629503540377 |
| gamma | 1 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 13 | 564 | 552.688301282051 | 11.3116987179485 |
| 14 | 586 | 587.00889071552 | -1.00889071552047 |
| 15 | 604 | 605.426063089066 | -1.42606308906556 |
| 16 | 601 | 602.200824301645 | -1.20082430164484 |
| 17 | 545 | 546.133034745739 | -1.13303474573854 |
| 18 | 537 | 538.585721565729 | -1.58572156572882 |
| 19 | 552 | 554.464188755308 | -2.46418875530776 |
| 20 | 563 | 561.824095182283 | 1.17590481771663 |
| 21 | 575 | 571.465334086761 | 3.53466591323945 |
| 22 | 580 | 583.582535264474 | -3.58253526447356 |
| 23 | 575 | 575.398631810933 | -0.398631810933239 |
| 24 | 558 | 573.670226766136 | -15.6702267661356 |
| 25 | 564 | 573.319487618236 | -9.3194876182356 |
| 26 | 581 | 582.660193870031 | -1.66019387003109 |
| 27 | 597 | 595.44559244264 | 1.55440755736015 |
| 28 | 587 | 590.463673800954 | -3.46367380095364 |
| 29 | 536 | 527.397810891782 | 8.60218910821777 |
| 30 | 524 | 525.462710569782 | -1.46271056978173 |
| 31 | 537 | 537.968271479589 | -0.968271479589475 |
| 32 | 536 | 543.758239571812 | -7.75823957181171 |
| 33 | 533 | 540.682567323272 | -7.68256732327245 |
| 34 | 528 | 535.661579983682 | -7.66157998368169 |
| 35 | 516 | 517.083143507878 | -1.08314350787782 |
| 36 | 502 | 506.80513835565 | -4.80513835565023 |
| 37 | 506 | 511.731305844929 | -5.73130584492895 |
| 38 | 518 | 520.172519443126 | -2.17251944312579 |
| 39 | 534 | 527.859222138869 | 6.14077786113126 |
| 40 | 528 | 522.673016828055 | 5.32698317194513 |
| 41 | 478 | 465.762846939601 | 12.2371530603986 |
| 42 | 469 | 464.241039141491 | 4.75896085850928 |
| 43 | 490 | 481.196550093488 | 8.80344990651213 |
| 44 | 493 | 495.71575802763 | -2.71575802762999 |
| 45 | 508 | 498.155460940617 | 9.8445390593829 |
| 46 | 517 | 512.899409766555 | 4.10059023344525 |
| 47 | 514 | 510.879857914082 | 3.12014208591802 |
| 48 | 510 | 510.042716027551 | -0.0427160275510232 |
| 49 | 527 | 525.822519663482 | 1.1774803365181 |
| 50 | 542 | 548.442033217303 | -6.44203321730345 |
| 51 | 565 | 559.5523760867 | 5.44762391330005 |
| 52 | 555 | 560.421523054159 | -5.42152305415925 |
| 53 | 499 | 499.09773939255 | -0.097739392550011 |
| 54 | 511 | 488.900430766924 | 22.0995692330761 |
| 55 | 526 | 528.221192945023 | -2.22119294502284 |
| 56 | 532 | 535.955962416838 | -3.95596241683825 |
| 57 | 549 | 542.159444268932 | 6.84055573106752 |
| 58 | 561 | 557.362159351808 | 3.63784064819242 |
| 59 | 557 | 558.421358229552 | -1.42135822955174 |
| 60 | 566 | 556.037238219143 | 9.96276178085679 |
| 61 | 588 | 585.625347417707 | 2.37465258229315 |
| 62 | 620 | 613.420099373745 | 6.57990062625458 |
| 63 | 626 | 643.968513884895 | -17.9685138848948 |
| 64 | 620 | 625.276023372816 | -5.27602337281564 |
| 65 | 573 | 567.485394895403 | 5.51460510459697 |
| 66 | 573 | 567.875393179127 | 5.12460682087271 |
| 67 | 574 | 591.095775239499 | -17.0957752394993 |
| 68 | 580 | 583.985167183731 | -3.98516718373071 |
| 69 | 590 | 590.030946198752 | -0.0309461987523036 |
| 70 | 593 | 596.741525236056 | -3.74152523605596 |
| 71 | 597 | 587.618338883281 | 9.38166111671853 |
| 72 | 595 | 594.719049679483 | 0.280950320516922 |
| 73 | 612 | 611.973386426058 | 0.026613573941745 |
| 74 | 628 | 634.715937085943 | -6.7159370859431 |
| 75 | 629 | 646.114863664084 | -17.1148636640841 |
| 76 | 621 | 624.079303965113 | -3.07930396511279 |
| 77 | 569 | 564.398970850883 | 4.60102914911715 |
| 78 | 567 | 559.118755250688 | 7.88124474931192 |
| 79 | 573 | 579.057266720709 | -6.05726672070853 |
| 80 | 584 | 580.374441050533 | 3.62555894946672 |
| 81 | 589 | 592.167797126251 | -3.16779712625123 |
| 82 | 591 | 593.618085137415 | -2.6180851374146 |
| 83 | 595 | 584.494663728154 | 10.5053362718456 |
| 84 | 594 | 590.288799796273 | 3.71120020372666 |
| 85 | 611 | 609.484665881828 | 1.51533411817161 |
| 86 | 613 | 632.14636643043 | -19.1463664304302 |
| 87 | 611 | 628.384366087942 | -17.3843660879422 |
| 88 | 594 | 604.122376556496 | -10.1223765564957 |
| 89 | 543 | 534.426582274519 | 8.57341772548091 |
| 90 | 537 | 529.712999613783 | 7.28700038621696 |
| 91 | 544 | 544.724917385117 | -0.724917385116555 |
| 92 | 555 | 549.004697845536 | 5.99530215446396 |
| 93 | 561 | 560.253374265329 | 0.746625734670829 |
| 94 | 562 | 563.667764697974 | -1.66776469797401 |
| 95 | 555 | 554.71494187334 | 0.285058126660374 |
| 96 | 547 | 547.415549716361 | -0.415549716361284 |
| 97 | 565 | 558.901074555301 | 6.09892544469881 |
| 98 | 578 | 581.440448003952 | -3.44044800395227 |
| 99 | 580 | 591.753790552366 | -11.7537905523661 |
| 100 | 569 | 573.358105178358 | -4.35810517835762 |
| 101 | 507 | 511.265057036796 | -4.26505703679572 |
| 102 | 501 | 493.558465575832 | 7.44153442416825 |
| 103 | 509 | 507.286335618588 | 1.71366438141206 |
| 104 | 510 | 513.752363541969 | -3.75236354196898 |
| 105 | 517 | 513.571664699373 | 3.42833530062683 |
| 106 | 519 | 517.747298607453 | 1.25270139254746 |
| 107 | 512 | 510.50067516166 | 1.49932483833993 |
| 108 | 509 | 503.318352640889 | 5.68164735911103 |
| 109 | 519 | 520.861541767797 | -1.86154176779678 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 110 | 534.089539448644 | 520.198509910216 | 547.980568987072 |
| 111 | 546.327617278158 | 525.863113632282 | 566.792120924034 |
| 112 | 540.401113066679 | 513.742097154506 | 567.060128978853 |
| 113 | 484.033231233527 | 451.213286182831 | 516.853176284222 |
| 114 | 473.366388600243 | 434.29466823448 | 512.438108966006 |
| 115 | 480.945567314613 | 435.475564249652 | 526.415570379574 |
| 116 | 486.374666919782 | 434.332561236163 | 538.416772603401 |
| 117 | 491.654785695766 | 432.85304660749 | 550.456524784041 |
| 118 | 493.458548139924 | 427.703100625043 | 559.213995654804 |
| 119 | 485.846488657808 | 412.940725717506 | 558.752251598111 |
| 120 | 478.107236301905 | 397.854353938872 | 558.360118664938 |
| 121 | 489.569672306621 | 401.774058050688 | 577.365286562555 |
