| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.213256903449989 |
| beta | FALSE |
| gamma | FALSE |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 2 | 100.7 | 101.5 | -0.799999999999997 |
| 3 | 110.6 | 101.32939447724 | 9.27060552275998 |
| 4 | 96.8 | 103.30641510413 | -6.50641510413018 |
| 5 | 100 | 101.918877166463 | -1.91887716646315 |
| 6 | 104.8 | 101.509663363842 | 3.29033663615768 |
| 7 | 86.8 | 102.211350366177 | -15.4113503661774 |
| 8 | 92 | 98.9247735091035 | -6.92477350910352 |
| 9 | 100.2 | 97.4480177534596 | 2.75198224654042 |
| 10 | 106.6 | 98.0348969657061 | 8.56510303429386 |
| 11 | 102.1 | 99.8614643165297 | 2.23853568347025 |
| 12 | 93.7 | 100.338847504649 | -6.63884750464891 |
| 13 | 97.6 | 98.9230674433308 | -1.3230674433308 |
| 14 | 96.9 | 98.6409141773106 | -1.74091417731057 |
| 15 | 105.6 | 98.2696522106851 | 7.33034778931486 |
| 16 | 102.8 | 99.8328994814459 | 2.9671005185541 |
| 17 | 101.7 | 100.465654150258 | 1.23434584974241 |
| 18 | 104.2 | 100.72888692396 | 3.47111307604 |
| 19 | 92.7 | 101.469125750081 | -8.76912575008106 |
| 20 | 91.9 | 99.5990491466552 | -7.69904914665521 |
| 21 | 106.5 | 97.9571737661303 | 8.54282623386975 |
| 22 | 112.3 | 99.7789904354766 | 12.5210095645234 |
| 23 | 102.8 | 102.449182163275 | 0.350817836725412 |
| 24 | 96.5 | 102.52399648881 | -6.02399648880967 |
| 25 | 101 | 101.239337651213 | -0.239337651212509 |
| 26 | 98.9 | 101.188297244836 | -2.28829724483593 |
| 27 | 105.1 | 100.700302060229 | 4.3996979397709 |
| 28 | 103 | 101.63856801898 | 1.36143198102008 |
| 29 | 99 | 101.92890278751 | -2.92890278751005 |
| 30 | 104.3 | 101.30429404854 | 2.99570595146038 |
| 31 | 94.6 | 101.943149023395 | -7.34314902339477 |
| 32 | 90.4 | 100.377171801094 | -9.97717180109377 |
| 33 | 108.9 | 98.249471037604 | 10.650528962396 |
| 34 | 111.4 | 100.520769864229 | 10.879230135771 |
| 35 | 100.8 | 102.840840794903 | -2.0408407949033 |
| 36 | 102.5 | 102.405617406548 | 0.0943825934521954 |
| 37 | 98.2 | 102.425745146167 | -4.225745146167 |
| 38 | 98.7 | 101.524575821527 | -2.82457582152661 |
| 39 | 113.3 | 100.922215528268 | 12.3777844717319 |
| 40 | 104.6 | 103.561863516281 | 1.03813648371896 |
| 41 | 99.3 | 103.783253288157 | -4.4832532881574 |
| 42 | 111.8 | 102.827168574543 | 8.97283142545703 |
| 43 | 97.3 | 104.740686819515 | -7.44068681951468 |
| 44 | 97.7 | 103.153908988844 | -5.45390898884382 |
| 45 | 115.6 | 101.990825246185 | 13.6091747538151 |
| 46 | 111.9 | 104.893075712693 | 7.00692428730672 |
| 47 | 107 | 106.387350688913 | 0.612649311087154 |
| 48 | 107.1 | 106.518002383896 | 0.581997616103934 |
| 49 | 100.6 | 106.642117393322 | -6.04211739332166 |
| 50 | 99.2 | 105.353594147741 | -6.15359414774055 |
| 51 | 108.4 | 104.041297714705 | 4.35870228529458 |
| 52 | 103 | 104.970821067128 | -1.97082106712773 |
| 53 | 99.8 | 104.550529869098 | -4.75052986909807 |
| 54 | 115 | 103.537446579468 | 11.4625534205325 |
| 55 | 90.8 | 105.98191522756 | -15.1819152275604 |
| 56 | 95.9 | 102.744266997691 | -6.8442669976906 |
| 57 | 114.4 | 101.284679811378 | 13.1153201886219 |
| 58 | 108.2 | 104.081612382559 | 4.11838761744123 |
| 59 | 112.6 | 104.959886973061 | 7.64011302693892 |
| 60 | 109.1 | 106.589193819194 | 2.510806180806 |
| 61 | 105 | 107.124640570476 | -2.12464057047578 |
| 62 | 105 | 106.671546301472 | -1.67154630147189 |
| 63 | 118.5 | 106.315077513247 | 12.1849224867533 |
| 64 | 103.7 | 108.91359635155 | -5.21359635154987 |
| 65 | 112.5 | 107.80176093778 | 4.69823906221981 |
| 66 | 116.6 | 108.803692851857 | 7.79630714814303 |
| 67 | 96.6 | 110.466309172615 | -13.866309172615 |
| 68 | 101.9 | 107.509223016183 | -5.60922301618291 |
| 69 | 116.5 | 106.313017484991 | 10.1869825150087 |
| 70 | 119.3 | 108.485461831641 | 10.8145381683587 |
| 71 | 115.4 | 110.791736753667 | 4.60826324633284 |
| 72 | 108.5 | 111.774480703863 | -3.27448070386251 |
| 73 | 111.5 | 111.07617508855 | 0.423824911449955 |
| 74 | 108.8 | 111.166558676771 | -2.36655867677084 |
| 75 | 121.8 | 110.66187370153 | 11.13812629847 |
| 76 | 109.6 | 113.037156026177 | -3.43715602617659 |
| 77 | 112.2 | 112.30415877536 | -0.104158775359693 |
| 78 | 119.6 | 112.281946197459 | 7.31805380254065 |
| 79 | 104.1 | 113.84257169067 | -9.74257169066959 |
| 80 | 105.3 | 111.764901020278 | -6.46490102027786 |
| 81 | 115 | 110.386216247583 | 4.61378375241728 |
| 82 | 124.1 | 111.370137483811 | 12.7298625161889 |
| 83 | 116.8 | 114.084868545358 | 2.71513145464236 |
| 84 | 107.5 | 114.663889071834 | -7.16388907183433 |
| 85 | 115.6 | 113.136140271716 | 2.46385972828426 |
| 86 | 116.2 | 113.661575367905 | 2.53842463209524 |
| 87 | 116.3 | 114.202911944587 | 2.09708805541342 |
| 88 | 119 | 114.650130449546 | 4.349869550454 |
| 89 | 111.9 | 115.577770160287 | -3.67777016028721 |
| 90 | 118.6 | 114.793460284304 | 3.8065397156964 |
| 91 | 106.9 | 115.605231156932 | -8.7052311569324 |
| 92 | 103.2 | 113.748780516589 | -10.5487805165886 |
| 93 | 118.6 | 111.499180248447 | 7.10081975155262 |
| 94 | 118.7 | 113.01347908062 | 5.68652091938 |
| 95 | 102.8 | 114.226168923291 | -11.4261689232906 |
| 96 | 100.6 | 111.789459520413 | -11.1894595204131 |
| 97 | 94.9 | 109.403230031811 | -14.5032300318108 |
| 98 | 94.5 | 106.310316105204 | -11.810316105204 |
| 99 | 102.9 | 103.791684663843 | -0.891684663842625 |
| 100 | 95.3 | 103.601526753578 | -8.3015267535777 |
| 101 | 92.5 | 101.831168864202 | -9.33116886420248 |
| 102 | 102.7 | 99.8412326866537 | 2.85876731334629 |
| 103 | 91.5 | 100.450884551582 | -8.95088455158199 |
| 104 | 89.5 | 98.5420466289733 | -9.04204662897327 |
| 105 | 104.2 | 96.613767764028 | 7.58623223597199 |
| 106 | 105.2 | 98.2315841595239 | 6.96841584047611 |
| 107 | 99 | 99.7176469436157 | -0.717646943615676 |
| 108 | 95.5 | 99.5646037786499 | -4.06460377864985 |
| 109 | 90.5 | 98.6977989630639 | -8.19779896306386 |
| 110 | 96.1 | 96.9495617410953 | -0.849561741095343 |
| 111 | 113 | 96.7683868348998 | 16.2316131651002 |
| 112 | 101.9 | 100.229890396487 | 1.6701096035129 |
| 113 | 101.4 | 100.586052798954 | 0.81394720104565 |
| 114 | 113.6 | 100.759632658621 | 12.8403673413789 |
| 115 | 96.6 | 103.497929637004 | -6.89792963700397 |
| 116 | 97.8 | 102.026898522401 | -4.22689852240059 |
| 117 | 114.9 | 101.125483232316 | 13.7745167676839 |
| 118 | 112.5 | 104.062994024712 | 8.43700597528768 |
| 119 | 108.4 | 105.862243793391 | 2.53775620660878 |
| 120 | 107 | 106.403437823724 | 0.596562176276393 |
| 121 | 103.5 | 106.530658826152 | -3.03065882615169 |
| 122 | 107.5 | 105.884349909473 | 1.6156500905268 |
| 123 | 122.3 | 106.228898444838 | 16.0711015551624 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 124 | 109.656171797522 | 95.1205937236524 | 124.191749871391 |
| 125 | 109.656171797522 | 94.7937404126484 | 124.518603182395 |
| 126 | 109.656171797522 | 94.4739221816518 | 124.838421413392 |
| 127 | 109.656171797522 | 94.1607034236035 | 125.15164017144 |
| 128 | 109.656171797522 | 93.8536917119271 | 125.458651883117 |
| 129 | 109.656171797522 | 93.5525320355259 | 125.759811559518 |
| 130 | 109.656171797522 | 93.256901987172 | 126.055441607872 |
| 131 | 109.656171797522 | 92.9665077193815 | 126.345835875662 |
| 132 | 109.656171797522 | 92.6810805232551 | 126.631263071789 |
| 133 | 109.656171797522 | 92.4003739168615 | 126.911969678182 |
| 134 | 109.656171797522 | 92.1241611533681 | 127.188182441676 |
| 135 | 109.656171797522 | 91.8522330772489 | 127.460110517795 |
