Seasonal Decomposition by Loess - Parameters | |||
Component | Window | Degree | Jump |
Seasonal | 1231 | 0 | 124 |
Trend | 19 | 1 | 2 |
Low-pass | 13 | 1 | 2 |
Seasonal Decomposition by Loess - Time Series Components | |||||
t | Observed | Fitted | Seasonal | Trend | Remainder |
1 | 101.5 | 103.844003052029 | -3.36305594607018 | 102.519052894042 | 2.34400305202851 |
2 | 100.7 | 102.613731370649 | -3.22353761600566 | 102.009806245357 | 1.91373137064872 |
3 | 110.6 | 112.538004737002 | 7.16143566632576 | 101.500559596672 | 1.938004737002 |
4 | 96.8 | 93.381911171414 | -0.836815305776498 | 101.054904134363 | -3.41808882858602 |
5 | 100 | 101.211637909913 | -1.82088658196619 | 100.609248672053 | 1.21163790991339 |
6 | 104.8 | 103.161107180509 | 6.22657176721205 | 100.212321052278 | -1.63889281949054 |
7 | 86.8 | 82.9305783055471 | -9.1459717380513 | 99.8153934325042 | -3.86942169445287 |
8 | 92 | 92.9738906891238 | -8.42239679669553 | 99.4485061075717 | 0.97389068912382 |
9 | 100.2 | 94.8672019456966 | 6.45117927166415 | 99.0816187826392 | -5.33279805430338 |
10 | 106.6 | 106.269023003844 | 7.91044708560312 | 99.0205299105526 | -0.330976996155712 |
11 | 102.1 | 103.660842207551 | 1.57971675398323 | 98.959441038466 | 1.56084220755082 |
12 | 93.7 | 90.7000776072938 | -2.51668662086836 | 99.2166090135746 | -2.99992239270624 |
13 | 97.6 | 99.0892789573869 | -3.36305594607018 | 99.4737769886833 | 1.48927895738687 |
14 | 96.9 | 97.2364384019576 | -3.22353761600566 | 99.787099214048 | 0.336438401957608 |
15 | 105.6 | 103.938142894261 | 7.16143566632576 | 100.100421439413 | -1.66185710573856 |
16 | 102.8 | 106.044442821558 | -0.836815305776498 | 100.392372484219 | 3.24444282155766 |
17 | 101.7 | 104.536563052941 | -1.82088658196619 | 100.684323529025 | 2.83656305294132 |
18 | 104.2 | 101.274826341541 | 6.22657176721205 | 100.898601891247 | -2.9251736584588 |
19 | 92.7 | 93.4330914845827 | -9.1459717380513 | 101.112880253469 | 0.733091484582658 |
20 | 91.9 | 91.01047977438 | -8.42239679669553 | 101.211917022316 | -0.88952022562006 |
21 | 106.5 | 105.237866937173 | 6.45117927166415 | 101.310953791163 | -1.26213306282668 |
22 | 112.3 | 115.373700618033 | 7.91044708560312 | 101.315852296364 | 3.07370061803303 |
23 | 102.8 | 102.699532444452 | 1.57971675398323 | 101.320750801565 | -0.10046755554842 |
24 | 96.5 | 94.2125742204952 | -2.51668662086836 | 101.304112400373 | -2.28742577950484 |
25 | 101 | 104.075581946889 | -3.36305594607018 | 101.287473999181 | 3.07558194688895 |
26 | 98.9 | 99.738785930955 | -3.22353761600566 | 101.284751685051 | 0.838785930955083 |
27 | 105.1 | 101.756534962754 | 7.16143566632576 | 101.28202937092 | -3.34346503724569 |
28 | 103 | 105.553150237059 | -0.836815305776498 | 101.283665068718 | 2.55315023705897 |
29 | 99 | 98.535585815451 | -1.82088658196619 | 101.285300766515 | -0.464414184548929 |
30 | 104.3 | 101.026824790725 | 6.22657176721205 | 101.346603442063 | -3.2731752092746 |
31 | 94.6 | 96.9380656204413 | -9.1459717380513 | 101.40790611761 | 2.33806562044133 |
32 | 90.4 | 87.6469047357679 | -8.42239679669553 | 101.575492060928 | -2.75309526423214 |
33 | 108.9 | 109.605742724091 | 6.45117927166415 | 101.743078004245 | 0.705742724090499 |
34 | 111.4 | 112.869281327449 | 7.91044708560312 | 102.020271586948 | 1.46928132744907 |
35 | 100.8 | 97.7228180763665 | 1.57971675398323 | 102.29746516965 | -3.07718192363353 |
36 | 102.5 | 104.866381763956 | -2.51668662086836 | 102.650304856913 | 2.36638176395556 |
37 | 98.2 | 96.7599114018948 | -3.36305594607018 | 103.003144544175 | -1.44008859810516 |
38 | 98.7 | 97.202089143207 | -3.22353761600566 | 103.421448472799 | -1.49791085679311 |
39 | 113.3 | 115.598811932252 | 7.16143566632576 | 103.839752401422 | 2.29881193225204 |
40 | 104.6 | 105.791858802807 | -0.836815305776498 | 104.244956502969 | 1.19185880280705 |
41 | 99.3 | 95.7707259774495 | -1.82088658196619 | 104.650160604517 | -3.52927402255048 |
42 | 111.8 | 112.416221759798 | 6.22657176721205 | 104.95720647299 | 0.616221759797511 |
43 | 97.3 | 98.481719396587 | -9.1459717380513 | 105.264252341464 | 1.18171939658711 |
44 | 97.7 | 98.4968636359493 | -8.42239679669553 | 105.325533160746 | 0.796863635949322 |
45 | 115.6 | 119.362006748308 | 6.45117927166415 | 105.386813980028 | 3.76200674830761 |
46 | 111.9 | 110.618216226589 | 7.91044708560312 | 105.271336687808 | -1.28178377341062 |
47 | 107 | 107.26442385043 | 1.57971675398323 | 105.155859395587 | 0.264423850429978 |
48 | 107.1 | 111.7399070658 | -2.51668662086836 | 104.976779555069 | 4.63990706579963 |
49 | 100.6 | 99.7653562315195 | -3.36305594607018 | 104.797699714551 | -0.834643768480504 |
50 | 99.2 | 97.0418230435992 | -3.22353761600566 | 104.581714572406 | -2.15817695640081 |
51 | 108.4 | 105.272834903412 | 7.16143566632576 | 104.365729430262 | -3.12716509658803 |
52 | 103 | 102.515986687714 | -0.836815305776498 | 104.320828618062 | -0.484013312285583 |
53 | 99.8 | 97.1449587761043 | -1.82088658196619 | 104.275927805862 | -2.65504122389569 |
54 | 115 | 119.205883871517 | 6.22657176721205 | 104.567544361271 | 4.20588387151703 |
55 | 90.8 | 85.8868108213713 | -9.1459717380513 | 104.85916091668 | -4.91318917862866 |
56 | 95.9 | 94.8309473163556 | -8.42239679669553 | 105.39144948034 | -1.06905268364443 |
57 | 114.4 | 116.425082684336 | 6.45117927166415 | 105.923738044 | 2.02508268433589 |
58 | 108.2 | 101.982430590535 | 7.91044708560312 | 106.507122323862 | -6.21756940946491 |
59 | 112.6 | 116.529776642293 | 1.57971675398323 | 107.090506603724 | 3.92977664229313 |
60 | 109.1 | 113.117067079578 | -2.51668662086836 | 107.59961954129 | 4.01706707957814 |
61 | 105 | 105.254323467213 | -3.36305594607018 | 108.108732478857 | 0.254323467213339 |
62 | 105 | 104.687213341271 | -3.22353761600566 | 108.536324274734 | -0.312786658728612 |
63 | 118.5 | 120.874648263063 | 7.16143566632576 | 108.963916070612 | 2.37464826306254 |
64 | 103.7 | 98.94171524087 | -0.836815305776498 | 109.295100064907 | -4.75828475913004 |
65 | 112.5 | 117.194602522765 | -1.82088658196619 | 109.626284059201 | 4.69460252276482 |
66 | 116.6 | 117.048596558402 | 6.22657176721205 | 109.924831674386 | 0.448596558402357 |
67 | 96.6 | 92.1225924484815 | -9.1459717380513 | 110.22337928957 | -4.47740755151851 |
68 | 101.9 | 101.652838846053 | -8.42239679669553 | 110.569557950642 | -0.247161153946919 |
69 | 116.5 | 115.633084116621 | 6.45117927166415 | 110.915736611715 | -0.866915883379235 |
70 | 119.3 | 119.437927012869 | 7.91044708560312 | 111.251625901528 | 0.137927012868715 |
71 | 115.4 | 117.632768054676 | 1.57971675398323 | 111.587515191341 | 2.23276805467553 |
72 | 108.5 | 107.607752647242 | -2.51668662086836 | 111.908933973626 | -0.89224735275792 |
73 | 111.5 | 114.132703190159 | -3.36305594607018 | 112.230352755911 | 2.63270319015885 |
74 | 108.8 | 108.345956902889 | -3.22353761600566 | 112.477580713116 | -0.454043097110628 |
75 | 121.8 | 123.713755663353 | 7.16143566632576 | 112.724808670321 | 1.91375566335302 |
76 | 109.6 | 107.192895465867 | -0.836815305776498 | 112.84391983991 | -2.40710453413328 |
77 | 112.2 | 113.257855572468 | -1.82088658196619 | 112.963031009498 | 1.05785557246786 |
78 | 119.6 | 119.868956920226 | 6.22657176721205 | 113.104471312562 | 0.268956920226444 |
79 | 104.1 | 104.100060122427 | -9.1459717380513 | 113.245911615625 | 6.01224266318923e-05 |
80 | 105.3 | 105.555672970987 | -8.42239679669553 | 113.466723825709 | 0.255672970987007 |
81 | 115 | 109.861284692543 | 6.45117927166415 | 113.687536035792 | -5.13871530745651 |
82 | 124.1 | 126.375309118494 | 7.91044708560312 | 113.914243795903 | 2.27530911849357 |
83 | 116.8 | 117.879331690002 | 1.57971675398323 | 114.140951556014 | 1.07933169000249 |
84 | 107.5 | 103.227042666355 | -2.51668662086836 | 114.289643954513 | -4.2729573336448 |
85 | 115.6 | 120.124719593058 | -3.36305594607018 | 114.438336353012 | 4.52471959305809 |
86 | 116.2 | 121.172602021684 | -3.22353761600566 | 114.450935594321 | 4.97260202168434 |
87 | 116.3 | 110.975029498044 | 7.16143566632576 | 114.463534835631 | -5.32497050195634 |
88 | 119 | 124.782537577832 | -0.836815305776498 | 114.054277727944 | 5.78253757783204 |
89 | 111.9 | 111.975865961708 | -1.82088658196619 | 113.645020620258 | 0.075865961707862 |
90 | 118.6 | 118.368657065871 | 6.22657176721205 | 112.604771166917 | -0.231342934129245 |
91 | 106.9 | 111.381450024475 | -9.1459717380513 | 111.564521713576 | 4.48145002447527 |
92 | 103.2 | 104.793842386091 | -8.42239679669553 | 110.028554410605 | 1.59384238609073 |
93 | 118.6 | 122.256233620702 | 6.45117927166415 | 108.492587107634 | 3.6562336207023 |
94 | 118.7 | 122.710573028355 | 7.91044708560312 | 106.778979886042 | 4.01057302835459 |
95 | 102.8 | 98.9549105815657 | 1.57971675398323 | 105.065372664451 | -3.8450894184343 |
96 | 100.6 | 100.247556355072 | -2.51668662086836 | 103.469130265796 | -0.352443644927931 |
97 | 94.9 | 91.2901680789287 | -3.36305594607018 | 101.872887867142 | -3.60983192107135 |
98 | 94.5 | 91.5951931702332 | -3.22353761600566 | 100.628344445772 | -2.90480682976677 |
99 | 102.9 | 99.254763309271 | 7.16143566632576 | 99.3838010244033 | -3.64523669072908 |
100 | 95.3 | 92.812062947814 | -0.836815305776498 | 98.6247523579624 | -2.48793705218596 |
101 | 92.5 | 88.9551828904446 | -1.82088658196619 | 97.8657036915216 | -3.5448171095554 |
102 | 102.7 | 101.598655735028 | 6.22657176721205 | 97.5747724977601 | -1.10134426497216 |
103 | 91.5 | 94.8621304340527 | -9.1459717380513 | 97.2838413039986 | 3.36213043405267 |
104 | 89.5 | 89.966503675772 | -8.42239679669553 | 97.4558931209235 | 0.466503675771975 |
105 | 104.2 | 104.320875790487 | 6.45117927166415 | 97.6279449378485 | 0.120875790487389 |
106 | 105.2 | 104.330981297541 | 7.91044708560312 | 98.1585716168558 | -0.869018702458916 |
107 | 99 | 97.7310849501536 | 1.57971675398323 | 98.6891982958632 | -1.26891504984638 |
108 | 95.5 | 94.131794696148 | -2.51668662086836 | 99.3848919247204 | -1.36820530385204 |
109 | 90.5 | 84.2824703924925 | -3.36305594607018 | 100.080585553578 | -6.21752960750749 |
110 | 96.1 | 94.566482467135 | -3.22353761600566 | 100.857055148871 | -1.53351753286496 |
111 | 113 | 117.205039589511 | 7.16143566632576 | 101.633524744164 | 4.20503958951068 |
112 | 101.9 | 102.12553924281 | -0.836815305776498 | 102.511276062967 | 0.225539242809788 |
113 | 101.4 | 101.231859200196 | -1.82088658196619 | 103.38902738177 | -0.168140799803652 |
114 | 113.6 | 116.763221062534 | 6.22657176721205 | 104.210207170254 | 3.16322106253395 |
115 | 96.6 | 97.3145847793131 | -9.1459717380513 | 105.031386958738 | 0.714584779313142 |
116 | 97.8 | 98.1419724255337 | -8.42239679669553 | 105.880424371162 | 0.341972425533683 |
117 | 114.9 | 116.61935894475 | 6.45117927166415 | 106.729461783586 | 1.71935894475033 |
118 | 112.5 | 109.516675698336 | 7.91044708560312 | 107.572877216061 | -2.98332430166414 |
119 | 108.4 | 106.80399059748 | 1.57971675398323 | 108.416292648537 | -1.59600940251975 |
120 | 107 | 107.286069267529 | -2.51668662086836 | 109.23061735334 | 0.286069267528688 |
121 | 103.5 | 100.318113887927 | -3.36305594607018 | 110.044942058143 | -3.18188611207265 |
122 | 107.5 | 107.374960081745 | -3.22353761600566 | 110.848577534261 | -0.12503991825524 |
123 | 122.3 | 125.786351323295 | 7.16143566632576 | 111.652213010379 | 3.48635132329528 |