| Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast | ||||||||
| time | Y[t] | F[t] | 95% LB | 95% UB | p-value (H0: Y[t] = F[t]) | P(F[t]>Y[t-1]) | P(F[t]>Y[t-s]) | P(F[t]>Y[69]) |
| 57 | 1407026 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 58 | 1370199 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 59 | 964526.000000001 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 60 | 850851.000000001 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 61 | 683118.000000001 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 62 | 847224.000000001 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 63 | 1073256 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 64 | 1514326 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 65 | 1503734 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 66 | 1507712 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 67 | 2865698 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 68 | 2788128 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 69 | 1391596 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 70 | 1366378 | 1370760.49 | 1155630.6758 | 1589332.9623 | 0.4843 | 0.4259 | 0.502 | 0.4259 |
| 71 | 946295 | 965068.1237 | 758042.4242 | 1176663.8856 | 0.431 | 1e-04 | 0.502 | 0 |
| 72 | 859626 | 851386.3697 | 647245.8103 | 1060585.9875 | 0.4692 | 0.1869 | 0.502 | 0 |
| Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast Performance | ||||||
| time | % S.E. | PE | MAPE | Sq.E | MSE | RMSE |
| 70 | 0.0814 | -0.0032 | 0 | 19206219.0197 | 0 | 0 |
| 71 | 0.1119 | -0.0195 | 0.0113 | 352430173.6469 | 185818196.3333 | 13631.5148 |
| 72 | 0.1254 | 0.0097 | 0.0108 | 67891506.9754 | 146509299.8806 | 12104.1026 |
