| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.81649858807122 |
| beta | 0.0957373254674197 |
| gamma | 0.687383866337763 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 13 | 224 | 250.122596153846 | -26.1225961538461 |
| 14 | 226 | 228.422437451358 | -2.42243745135764 |
| 15 | 223 | 220.592397739371 | 2.40760226062935 |
| 16 | 205 | 201.477612768534 | 3.5223872314659 |
| 17 | 201 | 196.881724350718 | 4.11827564928205 |
| 18 | 202 | 197.260967751126 | 4.73903224887448 |
| 19 | 183 | 180.100838637125 | 2.89916136287547 |
| 20 | 188 | 183.831749887488 | 4.16825011251211 |
| 21 | 200 | 197.216366549855 | 2.78363345014469 |
| 22 | 206 | 199.188040594139 | 6.81195940586068 |
| 23 | 211 | 201.731323812305 | 9.26867618769518 |
| 24 | 201 | 189.838372921078 | 11.1616270789217 |
| 25 | 299 | 213.651847247578 | 85.3481527524224 |
| 26 | 244 | 296.494566693005 | -52.4945666930052 |
| 27 | 251 | 255.013565724944 | -4.01356572494396 |
| 28 | 241 | 236.918201902486 | 4.08179809751442 |
| 29 | 244 | 239.019644727157 | 4.98035527284276 |
| 30 | 252 | 246.413872993181 | 5.58612700681928 |
| 31 | 234 | 236.012337017494 | -2.01233701749402 |
| 32 | 246 | 241.808180854653 | 4.19181914534727 |
| 33 | 265 | 260.954320508636 | 4.0456794913635 |
| 34 | 277 | 270.480152086749 | 6.51984791325089 |
| 35 | 287 | 279.087554875902 | 7.91244512409753 |
| 36 | 275 | 272.212744548377 | 2.7872554516228 |
| 37 | 320 | 303.778253889773 | 16.2217461102269 |
| 38 | 338 | 312.620986642094 | 25.3790133579059 |
| 39 | 342 | 346.754722926158 | -4.75472292615808 |
| 40 | 322 | 334.933259488073 | -12.9332594880729 |
| 41 | 323 | 327.783153564779 | -4.78315356477918 |
| 42 | 343 | 331.046574098256 | 11.9534259017441 |
| 43 | 315 | 329.147891262162 | -14.1478912621625 |
| 44 | 334 | 329.131411947376 | 4.86858805262392 |
| 45 | 359 | 352.178374484579 | 6.82162551542115 |
| 46 | 362 | 367.866513051874 | -5.8665130518736 |
| 47 | 378 | 369.151561318479 | 8.84843868152115 |
| 48 | 345 | 365.0831191925 | -20.0831191925001 |
| 49 | 422 | 380.570409620362 | 41.4295903796384 |
| 50 | 430 | 414.021691688499 | 15.9783083115014 |
| 51 | 443 | 438.815291762033 | 4.18470823796741 |
| 52 | 431 | 436.096516421365 | -5.09651642136521 |
| 53 | 425 | 439.820976933461 | -14.8209769334606 |
| 54 | 432 | 439.662817759202 | -7.6628177592018 |
| 55 | 387 | 419.585001674337 | -32.5850016743366 |
| 56 | 396 | 406.601906366029 | -10.6019063660287 |
| 57 | 411 | 415.74285878561 | -4.74285878560988 |
| 58 | 421 | 417.963472223291 | 3.03652777670851 |
| 59 | 424 | 426.64515974233 | -2.64515974233024 |
| 60 | 410 | 406.915689919688 | 3.08431008031243 |
| 61 | 464 | 448.261886644732 | 15.7381133552684 |
| 62 | 486 | 454.701277665365 | 31.2987223346348 |
| 63 | 490 | 488.889449407957 | 1.11055059204341 |
| 64 | 459 | 480.622699668309 | -21.6226996683089 |
| 65 | 454 | 466.467876232734 | -12.4678762327337 |
| 66 | 446 | 466.158786844267 | -20.1587868442666 |
| 67 | 406 | 428.782510467701 | -22.7825104677007 |
| 68 | 412 | 423.390311059742 | -11.3903110597425 |
| 69 | 428 | 429.379257282602 | -1.37925728260166 |
| 70 | 429 | 432.343126107149 | -3.3431261071492 |
| 71 | 425 | 431.616096258158 | -6.61609625815828 |
| 72 | 396 | 405.573574423686 | -9.57357442368618 |
| 73 | 429 | 433.397786347222 | -4.39778634722171 |
| 74 | 439 | 419.002045279564 | 19.9979547204358 |
| 75 | 424 | 432.915019598139 | -8.91501959813877 |
| 76 | 379 | 405.570909919017 | -26.570909919017 |
| 77 | 370 | 380.119816377597 | -10.1198163775972 |
| 78 | 353 | 372.530545538146 | -19.5305455381464 |
| 79 | 322 | 327.158121775866 | -5.1581217758656 |
| 80 | 322 | 330.792704263494 | -8.79270426349376 |
| 81 | 338 | 333.567927461441 | 4.432072538559 |
| 82 | 348 | 334.885873927132 | 13.1141260728684 |
| 83 | 350 | 342.326630988493 | 7.67336901150713 |
| 84 | 312 | 323.838694780364 | -11.8386947803644 |
| 85 | 358 | 346.549530400036 | 11.450469599964 |
| 86 | 378 | 345.493133983627 | 32.5068660163726 |
| 87 | 352 | 364.272553412865 | -12.2725534128645 |
| 88 | 312 | 329.997424974155 | -17.9974249741551 |
| 89 | 310 | 312.329272189258 | -2.32927218925761 |
| 90 | 292 | 309.230549638359 | -17.2305496383593 |
| 91 | 276 | 267.04534815507 | 8.95465184493025 |
| 92 | 269 | 282.344126052448 | -13.3441260524476 |
| 93 | 286 | 283.315044217044 | 2.68495578295585 |
| 94 | 292 | 284.408825163422 | 7.59117483657815 |
| 95 | 288 | 286.329333881765 | 1.6706661182352 |
| 96 | 255 | 259.685308070644 | -4.68530807064388 |
| 97 | 304 | 290.939930420939 | 13.0600695790611 |
| 98 | 299 | 293.745015928294 | 5.25498407170647 |
| 99 | 293 | 282.386034480832 | 10.6139655191684 |
| 100 | 275 | 265.625644873377 | 9.37435512662313 |
| 101 | 272 | 273.972504307895 | -1.97250430789484 |
| 102 | 264 | 271.003060069518 | -7.00306006951786 |
| 103 | 234 | 242.988524260835 | -8.98852426083533 |
| 104 | 231 | 241.938481074341 | -10.9384810743415 |
| 105 | 263 | 248.197929108162 | 14.8020708918381 |
| 106 | 264 | 262.053836664326 | 1.94616333567393 |
| 107 | 264 | 260.426814422867 | 3.57318557713342 |
| 108 | 245 | 236.491596978242 | 8.50840302175757 |
| 109 | 297 | 283.745660030108 | 13.2543399698921 |
| 110 | 317 | 288.728516337146 | 28.2714836628545 |
| 111 | 318 | 301.641270930442 | 16.3587290695581 |
| 112 | 315 | 294.667014554978 | 20.3329854450223 |
| 113 | 312 | 316.638864479299 | -4.63886447929895 |
| 114 | 310 | 316.757910194026 | -6.75791019402584 |
| 115 | 306 | 294.612366793666 | 11.3876332063344 |
| 116 | 313 | 317.465525867514 | -4.46552586751443 |
| 117 | 350 | 340.274985636946 | 9.7250143630539 |
| 118 | 354 | 355.98506669209 | -1.98506669208996 |
| 119 | 371 | 358.667299342077 | 12.3327006579232 |
| 120 | 357 | 350.505320423979 | 6.49467957602053 |
| 121 | 419 | 404.5550013533 | 14.4449986467001 |
| 122 | 425 | 420.338490089889 | 4.66150991011057 |
| 123 | 424 | 418.559791252493 | 5.44020874750731 |
| 124 | 399 | 408.407063753993 | -9.4070637539935 |
| 125 | 393 | 405.85678580625 | -12.8567858062503 |
| 126 | 378 | 401.266660018012 | -23.2666600180124 |
| 127 | 371 | 368.908108820863 | 2.09189117913718 |
| 128 | 364 | 382.422571010194 | -18.422571010194 |
| 129 | 384 | 394.785962114638 | -10.7859621146375 |
| 130 | 377 | 389.828369846232 | -12.8283698462321 |
| 131 | 383 | 382.172002730724 | 0.827997269275841 |
| 132 | 352 | 359.689707315349 | -7.68970731534904 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 133 | 397.861533897617 | 367.118398677093 | 428.604669118142 |
| 134 | 394.188352422962 | 352.937172882302 | 435.439531963622 |
| 135 | 381.909071864359 | 330.956618403624 | 432.861525325094 |
| 136 | 358.223702223678 | 297.889889675784 | 418.557514771571 |
| 137 | 356.436544011142 | 286.828645357021 | 426.044442665264 |
| 138 | 355.553313134161 | 276.667478905436 | 434.439147362885 |
| 139 | 341.731727978587 | 253.499844454652 | 429.963611502522 |
| 140 | 347.128178813426 | 249.44255391109 | 444.813803715762 |
| 141 | 373.114530102864 | 265.842103813735 | 480.386956391993 |
| 142 | 375.166878158915 | 258.157937768746 | 492.175818549085 |
| 143 | 379.171039507658 | 252.264822744097 | 506.077256271218 |
| 144 | 354.337197333667 | 217.365626995715 | 491.308767671619 |
