| Structural Time Series Model | |||||
| t | Observed | Level | Slope | Seasonal | Stand. Residuals |
| 1 | 274 | 274 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | 291 | 287.432802885276 | 0.807437104913567 | 3.56719711472421 | 1.03222557030103 |
| 3 | 280 | 283.745348279941 | 0.439638145208687 | -3.74534827994052 | -0.43852219689922 |
| 4 | 258 | 266.907017459355 | -1.19695133687673 | -8.90701745935493 | -1.857322676084 |
| 5 | 252 | 254.392282156557 | -2.44606383291734 | -2.39228215655746 | -1.19447407108349 |
| 6 | 251 | 249.70348028354 | -2.72810673103248 | 1.29651971645962 | -0.232141474212305 |
| 7 | 224 | 231.647758223384 | -4.8462559457749 | -7.64775822338392 | -1.56627357572074 |
| 8 | 225 | 223.54017993529 | -5.32627872104176 | 1.45982006471047 | -0.330232370712103 |
| 9 | 234 | 228.107739453355 | -3.808511835169 | 5.89226054664455 | 0.995210649276812 |
| 10 | 233 | 231.277420606651 | -2.70834977925375 | 1.72257939334945 | 0.698587150120013 |
| 11 | 229 | 229.720047284146 | -2.52354617541797 | -0.720047284146376 | 0.114834022687537 |
| 12 | 208 | 214.66307215771 | -4.5608031483925 | -6.66307215770983 | -1.24749880454103 |
| 13 | 224 | 219.409184768269 | -3.1172111320435 | 4.5908152317307 | 0.992243087668788 |
| 14 | 226 | 219.058328685216 | -2.66465879437183 | 6.94167131478429 | 0.268319342067694 |
| 15 | 223 | 219.58121835784 | -2.14545684428532 | 3.41878164216014 | 0.296268192931675 |
| 16 | 205 | 213.609239594907 | -2.76877595982789 | -8.60923959490664 | -0.372201922496364 |
| 17 | 201 | 205.096406188113 | -3.70934795919469 | -4.09640618811269 | -0.564076859017462 |
| 18 | 202 | 196.657406708023 | -4.48536628371645 | 5.34259329197744 | -0.461945286114112 |
| 19 | 183 | 190.160582184327 | -4.81551231340373 | -7.1605821843265 | -0.196056309134044 |
| 20 | 188 | 188.460962515954 | -4.3038872025858 | -0.460962515954026 | 0.30386474859368 |
| 21 | 200 | 192.610910867702 | -2.91496393146541 | 7.38908913229775 | 0.825137535056588 |
| 22 | 206 | 199.738093459406 | -1.26450320938334 | 6.2619065405937 | 0.980427218722805 |
| 23 | 211 | 205.558118383982 | -0.101095001912297 | 5.44188161601786 | 0.690752575417517 |
| 24 | 201 | 210.119020961122 | 0.662126043834845 | -9.11902096112167 | 0.45493834606083 |
| 25 | 299 | 263.092966079194 | 9.21228490776627 | 35.907033920806 | 5.21500434291356 |
| 26 | 244 | 255.717709486148 | 6.48889704732773 | -11.7177094861476 | -1.62146662613245 |
| 27 | 251 | 250.399371204428 | 4.56140493322297 | 0.600628795572335 | -1.12475962605963 |
| 28 | 241 | 249.37738423749 | 3.6524213382661 | -8.37738423748976 | -0.538857594369786 |
| 29 | 244 | 248.414768412905 | 2.89875634549839 | -4.41476841290467 | -0.45020488676716 |
| 30 | 252 | 247.605308011096 | 2.29168312134531 | 4.39469198890435 | -0.36118438961572 |
| 31 | 234 | 245.076310660655 | 1.50221224965203 | -11.0763106606548 | -0.468151747749867 |
| 32 | 246 | 248.265393609221 | 1.77837748437813 | -2.2653936092209 | 0.163699747615717 |
| 33 | 265 | 257.310184943591 | 2.96771593501914 | 7.68981505640877 | 0.705309888714906 |
| 34 | 277 | 269.62958010212 | 4.4977408330553 | 7.37041989788034 | 0.90745503025113 |
| 35 | 287 | 284.010064347328 | 6.11282969809872 | 2.98993565267156 | 0.958567167886612 |
| 36 | 275 | 299.455789902163 | 7.63613678255327 | -24.4557899021629 | 0.908649805912402 |
| 37 | 320 | 289.141581782788 | 4.70341636993532 | 30.8584182172124 | -1.76112374273773 |
| 38 | 338 | 323.854605854019 | 9.61322925462623 | 14.145394145981 | 2.91956990678893 |
| 39 | 342 | 339.668081595778 | 10.6246778236756 | 2.33191840422186 | 0.595440851286267 |
| 40 | 322 | 336.940213059587 | 8.4517674846495 | -14.9402130595871 | -1.28690129471487 |
| 41 | 323 | 331.697093216247 | 6.2206562977348 | -8.69709321624668 | -1.33012458175039 |
| 42 | 343 | 335.82726970506 | 5.87942471697953 | 7.17273029494034 | -0.203264038654521 |
| 43 | 315 | 332.325131060266 | 4.3469500846352 | -17.3251310602664 | -0.91010260399983 |
| 44 | 334 | 337.621334360875 | 4.50198218353463 | -3.62133436087493 | 0.0919258188343577 |
| 45 | 359 | 350.616055933382 | 5.88838358185059 | 8.38394406661777 | 0.821773220683462 |
| 46 | 362 | 358.689175570412 | 6.24479225540172 | 3.31082442958751 | 0.21130629472197 |
| 47 | 378 | 372.714320187263 | 7.5129401520875 | 5.28567981273707 | 0.753097178306774 |
| 48 | 345 | 371.823934997637 | 6.14364525584092 | -26.8239349976374 | -0.816386036542823 |
| 49 | 422 | 393.41679847905 | 8.66371793771251 | 28.5832015209497 | 1.50559394375245 |
| 50 | 430 | 412.862067321959 | 10.4235568932059 | 17.1379326780407 | 1.04549283001325 |
| 51 | 443 | 430.96915448933 | 11.6756418328259 | 12.0308455106699 | 0.739745722273374 |
| 52 | 431 | 441.798008251453 | 11.5378962271717 | -10.7980082514531 | -0.0815991184873577 |
| 53 | 425 | 439.911271798054 | 9.35358841204139 | -14.9112717980538 | -1.30024253198712 |
| 54 | 432 | 430.621166130084 | 6.31614292620383 | 1.3788338699165 | -1.80934956051069 |
| 55 | 387 | 415.668890834722 | 2.84837781087609 | -28.6688908347219 | -2.06122588493676 |
| 56 | 396 | 406.914554962336 | 0.956680126796457 | -10.9145549623363 | -1.12214806495126 |
| 57 | 411 | 404.078807146397 | 0.338693258401533 | 6.92119285360307 | -0.366267065278945 |
| 58 | 421 | 413.417063150259 | 1.80412464844203 | 7.58293684974116 | 0.868849580851793 |
| 59 | 424 | 416.870979028043 | 2.07260430978472 | 7.12902097195722 | 0.159488988885772 |
| 60 | 410 | 434.915222285232 | 4.67203085735433 | -24.9152222852322 | 1.54856752250608 |
| 61 | 464 | 442.014800950957 | 5.06746384666646 | 21.9851990490429 | 0.235698147287371 |
| 62 | 486 | 463.236721917994 | 7.69989746036273 | 22.763278082006 | 1.56327678354072 |
| 63 | 490 | 476.136517629564 | 8.54635892662983 | 13.8634823704364 | 0.500983373116209 |
| 64 | 459 | 471.465733951024 | 6.39752659752625 | -12.4657339510239 | -1.2735518667901 |
| 65 | 454 | 465.166232550802 | 4.33338765680635 | -11.1662325508016 | -1.22757058587299 |
| 66 | 446 | 446.787582929212 | 0.637975838782526 | -0.787582929211654 | -2.20028638579683 |
| 67 | 406 | 434.243533780619 | -1.50831679769074 | -28.2435337806186 | -1.27612578314967 |
| 68 | 412 | 424.842719801959 | -2.7934024670814 | -12.8427198019589 | -0.762571112066417 |
| 69 | 428 | 422.965432560385 | -2.64431214505612 | 5.0345674396146 | 0.0883766430129391 |
| 70 | 429 | 422.345351397537 | -2.31510745830864 | 6.65464860246301 | 0.195222560054412 |
| 71 | 425 | 423.187589292224 | -1.80183391001774 | 1.8124107077757 | 0.304930803357099 |
| 72 | 396 | 423.34740432171 | -1.48286612587377 | -27.3474043217101 | 0.189880642435153 |
| 73 | 429 | 417.508570785313 | -2.19163192882167 | 11.4914292146874 | -0.421928861937346 |
| 74 | 439 | 416.293585207406 | -2.03268364311324 | 22.7064147925935 | 0.0943790046689716 |
| 75 | 424 | 407.733988417499 | -3.09418841168983 | 16.2660115825011 | -0.628899395330282 |
| 76 | 379 | 391.201396552518 | -5.27777093329485 | -12.2013965525185 | -1.29471424829565 |
| 77 | 370 | 375.216809069822 | -7.01722914818593 | -5.21680906982245 | -1.03390715567465 |
| 78 | 353 | 354.525453341899 | -9.24001474818212 | -1.52545334189951 | -1.32274771447964 |
| 79 | 322 | 345.354544063387 | -9.22877503188226 | -23.3545440633867 | 0.00668262858034908 |
| 80 | 322 | 335.852828919216 | -9.27317024149296 | -13.8528289192156 | -0.0263506348675376 |
| 81 | 338 | 331.432160028316 | -8.48422172283044 | 6.56783997168401 | 0.467796382619199 |
| 82 | 348 | 335.972040723786 | -6.36789756501531 | 12.027959276214 | 1.25530247955334 |
| 83 | 350 | 342.792922132751 | -4.2254351107887 | 7.2070778672486 | 1.27276248247971 |
| 84 | 312 | 339.300806131591 | -4.10628221503161 | -27.3008061315908 | 0.070888704487983 |
| 85 | 358 | 342.139691063795 | -2.9772212733448 | 15.8603089362047 | 0.671618811234938 |
| 86 | 378 | 347.246930778424 | -1.66274161886107 | 30.7530692215757 | 0.78047639128755 |
| 87 | 352 | 335.78261578859 | -3.25563440632022 | 16.2173842114104 | -0.944344467002496 |
| 88 | 312 | 322.673359466395 | -4.85593989141436 | -10.6733594663945 | -0.949206633277343 |
| 89 | 310 | 311.722936972871 | -5.84556709402469 | -1.72293697287125 | -0.588020341205026 |
| 90 | 292 | 297.525712576037 | -7.20222952731585 | -5.52571257603733 | -0.806929091337926 |
| 91 | 276 | 295.486411259976 | -6.36318176686498 | -19.4864112599755 | 0.498776173296626 |
| 92 | 269 | 287.827986898634 | -6.57369122937522 | -18.827986898634 | -0.124967640727022 |
| 93 | 286 | 284.174548520559 | -6.09923888497282 | 1.82545147944108 | 0.281403292697679 |
| 94 | 292 | 283.058621601915 | -5.28997539519982 | 8.9413783980848 | 0.480123923839732 |
| 95 | 288 | 280.950914406905 | -4.77330003383892 | 7.04908559309514 | 0.306913636687977 |
| 96 | 255 | 282.601040996199 | -3.73017299649242 | -27.6010409961989 | 0.620302593880625 |
| 97 | 304 | 286.557762017516 | -2.48138197085614 | 17.4422379824841 | 0.742469641027235 |
| 98 | 299 | 271.601092721432 | -4.50830919376448 | 27.3989072785679 | -1.20350298865185 |
| 99 | 293 | 268.995772955852 | -4.19922729531829 | 24.0042270441484 | 0.183321078957897 |
| 100 | 275 | 275.91256091162 | -2.39463259400012 | -0.912560911620406 | 1.07067280099488 |
| 101 | 272 | 272.681914418048 | -2.5303327242481 | -0.681914418047932 | -0.0806135442357105 |
| 102 | 264 | 270.762105680249 | -2.43120800637844 | -6.76210568024871 | 0.058934252607669 |
| 103 | 234 | 258.930985584306 | -3.95789160300449 | -24.9309855843061 | -0.907359690940783 |
| 104 | 231 | 252.002109818232 | -4.4404546982212 | -21.0021098182317 | -0.286500640072709 |
| 105 | 263 | 257.377969928099 | -2.84645492156157 | 5.62203007190068 | 0.945671888691617 |
| 106 | 264 | 257.007872642546 | -2.44448189535189 | 6.9921273574538 | 0.238530682998919 |
| 107 | 264 | 258.19316733266 | -1.85537205602564 | 5.80683266733967 | 0.349911205950084 |
| 108 | 245 | 267.846699637294 | 0.0128221078660347 | -22.8466996372943 | 1.11052764222348 |
| 109 | 297 | 273.152804224956 | 0.872309211925403 | 23.8471957750443 | 0.510833244360967 |
| 110 | 317 | 285.35662322484 | 2.71239512016558 | 31.6433767751604 | 1.09258450505742 |
| 111 | 318 | 295.439067956028 | 3.90889632215359 | 22.5609320439716 | 0.709888545241819 |
| 112 | 315 | 309.886885207622 | 5.61925756339576 | 5.1131147923785 | 1.01497675247636 |
| 113 | 312 | 313.901875251469 | 5.3589324019084 | -1.901875251469 | -0.154626265990753 |
| 114 | 310 | 314.812336773435 | 4.63694753837112 | -4.81233677343512 | -0.429115874764199 |
| 115 | 306 | 325.946263401394 | 5.69167077606982 | -19.9462634013936 | 0.626737156239106 |
| 116 | 313 | 336.134635393416 | 6.4217095944688 | -23.1346353934155 | 0.43345706195233 |
| 117 | 350 | 344.781149748701 | 6.78283528171428 | 5.2188502512989 | 0.214292141061037 |
| 118 | 354 | 350.406614662888 | 6.5950249355302 | 3.59338533711189 | -0.111464265742162 |
| 119 | 371 | 365.225955117726 | 7.92945750682306 | 5.77404488227364 | 0.7925497577111 |
| 120 | 357 | 380.092981467905 | 9.05525186116426 | -23.092981467905 | 0.669029797540139 |
| 121 | 419 | 396.83624307701 | 10.3030943477085 | 22.16375692299 | 0.741469771918955 |
| 122 | 425 | 401.613869525623 | 9.4061983975712 | 23.3861304743765 | -0.532558106796099 |
| 123 | 424 | 406.932489990362 | 8.74281925361518 | 17.0675100096379 | -0.393675612252491 |
| 124 | 399 | 400.982599036055 | 6.35892413600397 | -1.98259903605458 | -1.41489598819608 |
| 125 | 393 | 397.638990803186 | 4.78483646566386 | -4.63899080318645 | -0.934879559211607 |
| 126 | 378 | 391.380636166707 | 2.99302228182281 | -13.3806361667069 | -1.0647146671912 |
| 127 | 371 | 392.643809223411 | 2.71229263612709 | -21.6438092234112 | -0.166787813811233 |
| 128 | 364 | 390.766831659795 | 1.96748466959512 | -26.766831659795 | -0.442244266657881 |
| 129 | 384 | 384.125959748539 | 0.57060850916614 | -0.125959748538955 | -0.829050721544136 |
| 130 | 377 | 379.815913948851 | -0.221210412002045 | -2.81591394885131 | -0.469998669465639 |
| 131 | 383 | 380.260933756528 | -0.113133166503969 | 2.73906624347206 | 0.0641858388623255 |
| 132 | 352 | 378.892247837771 | -0.316830734107288 | -26.892247837771 | -0.121026722917093 |
