| Structural Time Series Model | |||||
| t | Observed | Level | Slope | Seasonal | Stand. Residuals |
| 1 | 274 | 274 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | 291 | 287.432816348124 | 0.807437887770142 | 3.56718365187562 | 1.03222464681055 |
| 3 | 280 | 283.745342305401 | 0.439637940573265 | -3.74534230540102 | -0.438523977006527 |
| 4 | 258 | 266.906991335022 | -1.19694932357596 | -8.90699133502252 | -1.85732307258326 |
| 5 | 252 | 254.392264458332 | -2.44605809341732 | -2.3922644583316 | -1.19447224422177 |
| 6 | 251 | 249.703478932256 | -2.72809904616474 | 1.29652106774405 | -0.232140170741192 |
| 7 | 224 | 231.647743759524 | -4.84624694938476 | -7.64774375952383 | -1.56627436641324 |
| 8 | 225 | 223.540177846142 | -5.32626834727916 | 1.45982215385819 | -0.330231750887321 |
| 9 | 234 | 228.107754324003 | -3.80850305587078 | 5.89224567599719 | 0.995210476868805 |
| 10 | 233 | 231.277431269154 | -2.70834482704168 | 1.72256873084551 | 0.698585262744063 |
| 11 | 229 | 229.720047385856 | -2.52354399806848 | -0.720047385856164 | 0.114832378052107 |
| 12 | 208 | 214.663054575408 | -4.56080119662471 | -6.66305457540753 | -1.24749972420761 |
| 13 | 224 | 219.409191487813 | -3.11720808442085 | 4.5908085121867 | 0.992244843420648 |
| 14 | 226 | 219.058345816237 | -2.66465515464786 | 6.94165418376261 | 0.268319743852939 |
| 15 | 223 | 219.581233465679 | -2.14545479619946 | 3.41876653432089 | 0.296267430524105 |
| 16 | 205 | 213.609233873179 | -2.76877685739827 | -8.60923387317898 | -0.372203872070445 |
| 17 | 201 | 205.096394280095 | -3.70934851889572 | -4.09639428009514 | -0.564076892577279 |
| 18 | 202 | 196.657402375083 | -4.48536450299533 | 5.34259762491692 | -0.461944096554097 |
| 19 | 183 | 190.160572852898 | -4.81551122012524 | -7.1605728528984 | -0.196056807513661 |
| 20 | 188 | 188.460956396599 | -4.3038864145841 | -0.460956396599172 | 0.303864704843986 |
| 21 | 200 | 192.610920866812 | -2.91496238855506 | 7.38907913318845 | 0.825138347946265 |
| 22 | 206 | 199.738112954374 | -1.26450244802537 | 6.26188704562635 | 0.980427181662004 |
| 23 | 211 | 205.558130864823 | -0.101096984800651 | 5.44186913517651 | 0.690751243682241 |
| 24 | 201 | 210.119015561181 | 0.662120493066022 | -9.1190155611815 | 0.45493641168183 |
| 25 | 299 | 263.093010923852 | 9.21227755289534 | 35.9069890761484 | 5.21500587620956 |
| 26 | 244 | 255.717698370089 | 6.4888851610084 | -11.7176983700892 | -1.62146990255326 |
| 27 | 251 | 250.399362765737 | 4.56139787199306 | 0.600637234262574 | -1.12475725188493 |
| 28 | 241 | 249.377380244479 | 3.65241727915708 | -8.37738024447937 | -0.538856063824825 |
| 29 | 244 | 248.41476157486 | 2.89875341445917 | -4.41476157486002 | -0.450204396736448 |
| 30 | 252 | 247.605299213414 | 2.29168110655907 | 4.39470078658633 | -0.361183985573463 |
| 31 | 234 | 245.076296954555 | 1.50221075173413 | -11.0762969545547 | -0.468151634792625 |
| 32 | 246 | 248.265387505633 | 1.77837713014097 | -2.26538750563257 | 0.163700495827198 |
| 33 | 265 | 257.310192292884 | 2.96771635439547 | 7.68980770711618 | 0.70531065272973 |
| 34 | 277 | 269.629592168479 | 4.49774004916641 | 7.37040783152136 | 0.907454706473131 |
| 35 | 287 | 284.01006637718 | 6.11282539148674 | 2.98993362281951 | 0.958565478722212 |
| 36 | 275 | 299.455783588524 | 7.63612991285428 | -24.4557835885243 | 0.908648658264646 |
| 37 | 320 | 289.141582244178 | 4.70341540376818 | 30.8584177558217 | -1.76112099132352 |
| 38 | 338 | 323.854649061877 | 9.61322929122054 | 14.145350938123 | 2.91957168024689 |
| 39 | 342 | 339.668098905497 | 10.6246723561247 | 2.33190109450301 | 0.595437848156679 |
| 40 | 322 | 336.940202776897 | 8.45176112889281 | -14.9402027768967 | -1.28690239030006 |
| 41 | 323 | 331.697075977578 | 6.22065260253856 | -8.69707597757766 | -1.3301235629141 |
| 42 | 343 | 335.827259605682 | 5.87942321325666 | 7.17274039431785 | -0.20326281454539 |
| 43 | 315 | 332.325108851096 | 4.3469487582013 | -17.3251088510959 | -0.910102867917849 |
| 44 | 334 | 337.621321390457 | 4.50198238927581 | -3.62132139045671 | 0.0919267661750935 |
| 45 | 359 | 350.616057261159 | 5.88838436442885 | 8.38394273884107 | 0.821773916748497 |
| 46 | 362 | 358.68917585774 | 6.2447922988329 | 3.31082414226023 | 0.211305946818672 |
| 47 | 378 | 372.714326859422 | 7.5129396571588 | 5.28567314057845 | 0.753097173754919 |
| 48 | 345 | 371.82392759129 | 6.1436442502191 | -26.8239275912903 | -0.816386686565965 |
| 49 | 422 | 393.416808775968 | 8.66371684812366 | 28.5831912240318 | 1.50559454947799 |
| 50 | 430 | 412.862098689782 | 10.4235572305087 | 17.1379013102184 | 1.04549411029458 |
| 51 | 443 | 430.969188087072 | 11.6756409147806 | 12.0308119129282 | 0.739745280981551 |
| 52 | 431 | 441.798019443998 | 11.5378919853853 | -10.798019443998 | -0.0816011225569787 |
| 53 | 425 | 439.91125529681 | 9.35358305638954 | -14.9112552968098 | -1.30024375455939 |
| 54 | 432 | 430.62113726779 | 6.31614018351863 | 1.37886273221036 | -1.80934874834049 |
| 55 | 387 | 415.668849855261 | 2.84837784033248 | -28.6688498552609 | -2.06122507781772 |
| 56 | 396 | 406.914524229459 | 0.9566841710292 | -10.9145242294588 | -1.12214615324423 |
| 57 | 411 | 404.078794797056 | 0.338700405082652 | 6.92120520294419 | -0.366265382862824 |
| 58 | 421 | 413.417069466551 | 1.80413185896988 | 7.58293053344926 | 0.86884998791212 |
| 59 | 424 | 416.870982420103 | 2.07260953899894 | 7.12901757989663 | 0.159487878951438 |
| 60 | 410 | 434.915230598202 | 4.67203281603701 | -24.9152305982024 | 1.54856623265996 |
| 61 | 464 | 442.014806610612 | 5.06746456416534 | 21.9851933893879 | 0.235697508759694 |
| 62 | 486 | 463.236756527695 | 7.69989951600069 | 22.7632434723049 | 1.56327822955941 |
| 63 | 490 | 476.136553833075 | 8.54635985556259 | 13.8634461669245 | 0.500982911974509 |
| 64 | 459 | 471.465747736861 | 6.39752639832533 | -12.4657477368611 | -1.27355307604416 |
| 65 | 454 | 465.166231676129 | 4.33338765867811 | -11.1662316761294 | -1.22757099366798 |
| 66 | 446 | 446.787556843204 | 0.63797629933088 | -0.787556843204155 | -2.20028703458656 |
| 67 | 406 | 434.243499946818 | -1.50831502023674 | -28.2434999468178 | -1.27612552678648 |
| 68 | 412 | 424.842686346223 | -2.79339932681279 | -12.8426863462228 | -0.762570621539515 |
| 69 | 428 | 422.965411593555 | -2.64430766774972 | 5.03458840644494 | 0.0883774729413083 |
| 70 | 429 | 422.345341339426 | -2.3151023416351 | 6.65465866057405 | 0.195223021774017 |
| 71 | 425 | 423.187581820303 | -1.80182983870722 | 1.81241817969658 | 0.304930311072908 |
| 72 | 396 | 423.347402789663 | -1.48286214497872 | -27.3474027896634 | 0.189880669542828 |
| 73 | 429 | 417.508570092927 | -2.19162758325099 | 11.4914299070727 | -0.421928825022588 |
| 74 | 439 | 416.293611748246 | -2.03267576906838 | 22.7063882517536 | 0.0943811392058972 |
| 75 | 424 | 407.734023510691 | -3.09417911292401 | 16.2659764893087 | -0.628898811037317 |
| 76 | 379 | 391.201418797982 | -5.27776252864762 | -12.2014187979823 | -1.29471532448201 |
| 77 | 370 | 375.216819464953 | -7.01722188487514 | -5.21681946495288 | -1.03390827665664 |
| 78 | 353 | 354.52543727886 | -9.24001022464953 | -1.52543727886033 | -1.32274990467383 |
| 79 | 322 | 345.354522848623 | -9.22877209585894 | -23.3545228486232 | 0.00668168750544591 |
| 80 | 322 | 335.852800014864 | -9.27316897893972 | -13.8528000148636 | -0.02635163914313 |
| 81 | 338 | 331.432138860066 | -8.48422038230278 | 6.5678611399342 | 0.467796625349132 |
| 82 | 348 | 335.972035641721 | -6.36789644130824 | 12.0279643582789 | 1.25530288007485 |
| 83 | 350 | 342.792926069248 | -4.22543534973339 | 7.20707393075237 | 1.27276221176536 |
| 84 | 312 | 339.300806860036 | -4.10628308351217 | -27.300806860036 | 0.0708883601945553 |
| 85 | 358 | 342.139706547317 | -2.97722099514859 | 15.860293452683 | 0.671619779252492 |
| 86 | 378 | 347.246967509875 | -1.66273955355897 | 30.7530324901247 | 0.780477778935618 |
| 87 | 352 | 335.782645438032 | -3.25563185864313 | 16.2173545619677 | -0.94434457257522 |
| 88 | 312 | 322.673380785881 | -4.85593713099367 | -10.6733807858806 | -0.94920690615562 |
| 89 | 310 | 311.722946231055 | -5.84556551791833 | -1.72294623105521 | -0.58802129578558 |
| 90 | 292 | 297.525695575687 | -7.20223079943054 | -5.52569557568697 | -0.806931128529626 |
| 91 | 276 | 295.486391707668 | -6.36318428170153 | -19.4863917076682 | 0.498775644072501 |
| 92 | 269 | 287.827952266652 | -6.57369552652875 | -18.827952266652 | -0.124968750987783 |
| 93 | 286 | 284.174517213891 | -6.099242529466 | 1.82548278610944 | 0.281403797571386 |
| 94 | 292 | 283.058604673748 | -5.28997711205397 | 8.94139532625202 | 0.480125269423786 |
| 95 | 288 | 280.950910152769 | -4.77330005208805 | 7.04908984723082 | 0.306914775743428 |
| 96 | 255 | 282.601047496016 | -3.73017255274948 | -27.6010474960162 | 0.620303133222462 |
| 97 | 304 | 286.557785722542 | -2.48138034429968 | 17.4422142774584 | 0.742470659813433 |
| 98 | 299 | 271.601116496437 | -4.50830531969555 | 27.3988835035628 | -1.20350215833284 |
| 99 | 293 | 268.995811434869 | -4.19922204401513 | 24.0041885651311 | 0.183321972027223 |
| 100 | 275 | 275.912600668593 | -2.39463021840045 | -0.912600668592862 | 1.0706715443311 |
| 101 | 272 | 272.681925706374 | -2.53033518759485 | -0.681925706374512 | -0.0806164531452879 |
| 102 | 264 | 270.762093807265 | -2.43121395253545 | -6.7620938072648 | 0.0589322070122032 |
| 103 | 234 | 258.930952452761 | -3.95789815349172 | -24.930952452761 | -0.907360432896603 |
| 104 | 231 | 252.00207290351 | -4.44046020389076 | -21.0020729035103 | -0.286500139633687 |
| 105 | 263 | 257.377947141928 | -2.84645920679201 | 5.62205285807194 | 0.945673007966695 |
| 106 | 264 | 257.00785309117 | -2.44448545634706 | 6.99214690882999 | 0.238531212969064 |
| 107 | 264 | 258.19315972795 | -1.85537382768166 | 5.80684027205026 | 0.349912417035444 |
| 108 | 245 | 267.84671607669 | 0.0128222209154417 | -22.8467160766903 | 1.11052923595629 |
| 109 | 297 | 273.152833013423 | 0.872310251639835 | 23.8471669865771 | 0.510834011975295 |
| 110 | 317 | 285.356658698007 | 2.7123948065869 | 31.6433413019933 | 1.09258415971595 |
| 111 | 318 | 295.43910193413 | 3.90889433919462 | 22.5608980658702 | 0.709887850549336 |
| 112 | 315 | 309.886922457981 | 5.61925431942264 | 5.11307754201867 | 1.01497643007931 |
| 113 | 312 | 313.901887408586 | 5.3589259340864 | -1.90188740858554 | -0.154628246524545 |
| 114 | 310 | 314.812327424844 | 4.63693952103358 | -4.81232742484421 | -0.429116978456807 |
| 115 | 306 | 325.946244169779 | 5.69166115480419 | -19.9462441697788 | 0.626736468128345 |
| 116 | 313 | 336.134604222552 | 6.42169869609765 | -23.1346042225517 | 0.433456485337324 |
| 117 | 350 | 344.781120782374 | 6.78282606426943 | 5.21887921762561 | 0.214293228080746 |
| 118 | 354 | 350.406588373671 | 6.59501788028686 | 3.59341162632936 | -0.111463029292857 |
| 119 | 371 | 365.225947833685 | 7.92945303133739 | 5.77405216631545 | 0.792551625563327 |
| 120 | 357 | 380.09299092053 | 9.05524943782317 | -23.0929909205302 | 0.669031301936746 |
| 121 | 419 | 396.836264649511 | 10.3030927451298 | 22.1637353504889 | 0.741470574092062 |
| 122 | 425 | 401.613886703857 | 9.40619744864034 | 23.3861132961435 | -0.53255794223759 |
| 123 | 424 | 406.932511599936 | 8.74281999720658 | 17.0674884000641 | -0.393674772167017 |
| 124 | 399 | 400.98261283837 | 6.35892643891763 | -1.9826128383701 | -1.41489565648398 |
| 125 | 393 | 397.638994921315 | 4.78483876931274 | -4.63899492131465 | -0.934879955040519 |
| 126 | 378 | 391.380618930969 | 2.99302295967672 | -13.3806189309694 | -1.0647160862244 |
| 127 | 371 | 392.643788284037 | 2.71229294940045 | -21.6437882840365 | -0.166788100993731 |
| 128 | 364 | 390.76680201095 | 1.9674844379064 | -26.7668020109496 | -0.442244775838963 |
| 129 | 384 | 384.125924282892 | 0.570609096626927 | -0.125924282892463 | -0.82905058209792 |
| 130 | 377 | 379.815883405965 | -0.221208142534519 | -2.81588340596458 | -0.469997868427708 |
| 131 | 383 | 380.260922040984 | -0.113128344572037 | 2.73907795901561 | 0.064187381907292 |
| 132 | 352 | 378.892252420373 | -0.316823798674682 | -26.8922524203734 | -0.121025518643652 |
