Seasonal Decomposition by Loess - Parameters | |||
Component | Window | Degree | Jump |
Seasonal | 1321 | 0 | 133 |
Trend | 19 | 1 | 2 |
Low-pass | 13 | 1 | 2 |
Seasonal Decomposition by Loess - Time Series Components | |||||
t | Observed | Fitted | Seasonal | Trend | Remainder |
1 | 274 | 258.825969297934 | 26.4236653861948 | 262.750365315871 | -15.174030702066 |
2 | 291 | 291.074065711283 | 31.2979190176708 | 259.628015271047 | 0.0740657112825716 |
3 | 280 | 276.049434712804 | 27.4449000609741 | 256.505665226222 | -3.9505652871961 |
4 | 258 | 258.212634364351 | 4.67600235024529 | 253.111363285404 | 0.212634364350805 |
5 | 252 | 253.830373753073 | 0.452564902341024 | 249.717061344586 | 1.83037375307325 |
6 | 251 | 259.136401466967 | -3.24364100523016 | 246.107239538264 | 8.13640146696659 |
7 | 224 | 233.533349901256 | -28.030767633197 | 242.497417731941 | 9.5333499012556 |
8 | 225 | 236.391724668407 | -25.1501097519631 | 238.758385083556 | 11.3917246684067 |
9 | 234 | 239.250102593327 | -6.26945502849838 | 235.019352435172 | 5.25010259332686 |
10 | 233 | 238.808370173524 | -3.26430176703221 | 230.455931593509 | 5.80837017352368 |
11 | 229 | 232.184825024964 | -0.0773357768091877 | 225.892510751846 | 3.18482502496363 |
12 | 208 | 218.819406060445 | -24.2594446230739 | 221.440038562629 | 10.8194060604446 |
13 | 224 | 204.588768240392 | 26.4236653861948 | 216.987566373413 | -19.4112317596078 |
14 | 226 | 207.046092187521 | 31.2979190176708 | 213.655988794808 | -18.9539078124792 |
15 | 223 | 208.230688722822 | 27.4449000609741 | 210.324411216204 | -14.769311277178 |
16 | 205 | 196.699714448582 | 4.67600235024529 | 208.624283201172 | -8.30028555141757 |
17 | 201 | 194.623279911518 | 0.452564902341024 | 206.924155186141 | -6.37672008848168 |
18 | 202 | 199.297444563401 | -3.24364100523016 | 207.946196441829 | -2.70255543659889 |
19 | 183 | 185.06252993568 | -28.030767633197 | 208.968237697517 | 2.06252993567958 |
20 | 188 | 189.345534155014 | -25.1501097519631 | 211.804575596949 | 1.34553415501392 |
21 | 200 | 191.628541532117 | -6.26945502849838 | 214.640913496381 | -8.3714584678826 |
22 | 206 | 197.389114317507 | -3.26430176703221 | 217.875187449526 | -8.61088568249343 |
23 | 211 | 200.967874374139 | -0.0773357768091877 | 221.10946140267 | -10.0321256258611 |
24 | 201 | 201.30198112077 | -24.2594446230739 | 224.957463502304 | 0.301981120769597 |
25 | 299 | 342.770869011867 | 26.4236653861948 | 228.805465601938 | 43.7708690118669 |
26 | 244 | 223.032878673122 | 31.2979190176708 | 233.669202309207 | -20.9671213268776 |
27 | 251 | 236.022160922551 | 27.4449000609741 | 238.532939016475 | -14.9778390774493 |
28 | 241 | 233.353851955543 | 4.67600235024529 | 243.970145694212 | -7.64614804445725 |
29 | 244 | 238.14008272571 | 0.452564902341024 | 249.407352371949 | -5.85991727428964 |
30 | 252 | 252.220130901067 | -3.24364100523016 | 255.023510104163 | 0.220130901067392 |
31 | 234 | 235.39109979682 | -28.030767633197 | 260.639667836377 | 1.39109979682013 |
32 | 246 | 250.233914402013 | -25.1501097519631 | 266.91619534995 | 4.23391440201272 |
33 | 265 | 263.076732164974 | -6.26945502849838 | 273.192722863524 | -1.92326783502557 |
34 | 277 | 277.185614884768 | -3.26430176703221 | 280.078686882264 | 0.185614884768427 |
35 | 287 | 287.112684875805 | -0.0773357768091877 | 286.964650901004 | 0.112684875805485 |
36 | 275 | 280.380009963114 | -24.2594446230739 | 293.87943465996 | 5.38000996311411 |
37 | 320 | 312.782116194889 | 26.4236653861948 | 300.794218418916 | -7.21788380511066 |
38 | 338 | 336.6629188195 | 31.2979190176708 | 308.039162162829 | -1.33708118049992 |
39 | 342 | 341.270994032284 | 27.4449000609741 | 315.284105906742 | -0.729005967716489 |
40 | 322 | 316.628701218287 | 4.67600235024529 | 322.695296431467 | -5.37129878171265 |
41 | 323 | 315.440948141467 | 0.452564902341024 | 330.106486956192 | -7.55905185853334 |
42 | 343 | 351.69690644127 | -3.24364100523016 | 337.54673456396 | 8.69690644126996 |
43 | 315 | 313.043785461469 | -28.030767633197 | 344.986982171728 | -1.95621453853107 |
44 | 334 | 340.251178329765 | -25.1501097519631 | 352.898931422198 | 6.2511783297648 |
45 | 359 | 363.45857435583 | -6.26945502849838 | 360.810880672669 | 4.45857435582985 |
46 | 362 | 358.237759334306 | -3.26430176703221 | 369.026542432726 | -3.76224066569392 |
47 | 378 | 378.835131584025 | -0.0773357768091877 | 377.242204192784 | 0.835131584025419 |
48 | 345 | 329.573236907489 | -24.2594446230739 | 384.686207715585 | -15.4267630925113 |
49 | 422 | 425.446123375419 | 26.4236653861948 | 392.130211238387 | 3.44612337541861 |
50 | 430 | 430.640054905224 | 31.2979190176708 | 398.062026077105 | 0.640054905223906 |
51 | 443 | 454.561259023202 | 27.4449000609741 | 403.993840915824 | 11.561259023202 |
52 | 431 | 448.605803426908 | 4.67600235024529 | 408.718194222847 | 17.6058034269078 |
53 | 425 | 436.104887567789 | 0.452564902341024 | 413.44254752987 | 11.1048875677891 |
54 | 432 | 449.872466923501 | -3.24364100523016 | 417.371174081729 | 17.8724669235008 |
55 | 387 | 380.730966999608 | -28.030767633197 | 421.299800633589 | -6.26903300039191 |
56 | 396 | 392.480656576576 | -25.1501097519631 | 424.669453175387 | -3.51934342342429 |
57 | 411 | 400.230349311313 | -6.26945502849838 | 428.039105717186 | -10.7696506886875 |
58 | 421 | 414.31078730989 | -3.26430176703221 | 430.953514457142 | -6.68921269010985 |
59 | 424 | 414.209412579711 | -0.0773357768091877 | 433.867923197098 | -9.79058742028917 |
60 | 410 | 407.961424857112 | -24.2594446230739 | 436.298019765962 | -2.03857514288848 |
61 | 464 | 462.848218278979 | 26.4236653861948 | 438.728116334826 | -1.15178172102111 |
62 | 486 | 500.221987712594 | 31.2979190176708 | 440.480093269735 | 14.2219877125943 |
63 | 490 | 510.323029734382 | 27.4449000609741 | 442.232070204644 | 20.3230297343824 |
64 | 459 | 470.662505464168 | 4.67600235024529 | 442.661492185587 | 11.6625054641681 |
65 | 454 | 464.456520931129 | 0.452564902341024 | 443.09091416653 | 10.4565209311294 |
66 | 446 | 453.905909070272 | -3.24364100523016 | 441.337731934958 | 7.90590907027206 |
67 | 406 | 400.44621792981 | -28.030767633197 | 439.584549703387 | -5.55378207018958 |
68 | 412 | 413.725304411208 | -25.1501097519631 | 435.424805340755 | 1.72530441120836 |
69 | 428 | 431.004394050375 | -6.26945502849838 | 431.265060978123 | 3.00439405037548 |
70 | 429 | 436.04677737402 | -3.26430176703221 | 425.217524393013 | 7.04677737401954 |
71 | 425 | 430.907347968907 | -0.0773357768091877 | 419.169987807902 | 5.90734796890678 |
72 | 396 | 404.263131901301 | -24.2594446230739 | 411.996312721773 | 8.26313190130094 |
73 | 429 | 426.753696978162 | 26.4236653861948 | 404.822637635643 | -2.24630302183817 |
74 | 439 | 449.548449532047 | 31.2979190176708 | 397.153631450282 | 10.5484495320469 |
75 | 424 | 431.070474674105 | 27.4449000609741 | 389.484625264921 | 7.07047467410462 |
76 | 379 | 371.177422849211 | 4.67600235024529 | 382.146574800543 | -7.82257715078867 |
77 | 370 | 364.738910761494 | 0.452564902341024 | 374.808524336165 | -5.26108923850643 |
78 | 353 | 340.925770581175 | -3.24364100523016 | 368.317870424055 | -12.0742294188252 |
79 | 322 | 310.203551121252 | -28.030767633197 | 361.827216511945 | -11.7964488787481 |
80 | 322 | 312.813110314646 | -25.1501097519631 | 356.336999437317 | -9.18688968535366 |
81 | 338 | 331.42267266581 | -6.26945502849838 | 350.846782362688 | -6.57732733418999 |
82 | 348 | 353.305919340063 | -3.26430176703221 | 345.958382426969 | 5.3059193400631 |
83 | 350 | 359.007353285559 | -0.0773357768091877 | 341.06998249125 | 9.00735328555925 |
84 | 312 | 311.803446859452 | -24.2594446230739 | 336.455997763622 | -0.196553140548474 |
85 | 358 | 357.73432157781 | 26.4236653861948 | 331.842013035995 | -0.26567842218958 |
86 | 378 | 397.584974570901 | 31.2979190176708 | 327.117106411428 | 19.5849745709013 |
87 | 352 | 354.162900152165 | 27.4449000609741 | 322.392199786861 | 2.16290015216487 |
88 | 312 | 301.854527226849 | 4.67600235024529 | 317.469470422905 | -10.1454727731508 |
89 | 310 | 307.000694038709 | 0.452564902341024 | 312.54674105895 | -2.99930596129093 |
90 | 292 | 279.718127475333 | -3.24364100523016 | 307.525513529898 | -12.2818725246674 |
91 | 276 | 277.526481632352 | -28.030767633197 | 302.504286000845 | 1.52648163235176 |
92 | 269 | 265.426095192001 | -25.1501097519631 | 297.724014559962 | -3.57390480799938 |
93 | 286 | 285.325711909419 | -6.26945502849838 | 292.94374311908 | -0.674288090581342 |
94 | 292 | 298.181810459289 | -3.26430176703221 | 289.082491307743 | 6.18181045928901 |
95 | 288 | 290.856096280402 | -0.0773357768091877 | 285.221239496407 | 2.85609628040243 |
96 | 255 | 252.203693453886 | -24.2594446230739 | 282.055751169188 | -2.79630654611429 |
97 | 304 | 302.686071771836 | 26.4236653861948 | 278.89026284197 | -1.3139282281644 |
98 | 299 | 290.633599781964 | 31.2979190176708 | 276.068481200366 | -8.36640021803646 |
99 | 293 | 285.308400380264 | 27.4449000609741 | 273.246699558762 | -7.69159961973583 |
100 | 275 | 274.176820941592 | 4.67600235024529 | 271.147176708163 | -0.823179058408414 |
101 | 272 | 274.499781240094 | 0.452564902341024 | 269.047653857565 | 2.49978124009448 |
102 | 264 | 263.059390619822 | -3.24364100523016 | 268.184250385408 | -0.940609380178046 |
103 | 234 | 228.709920719945 | -28.030767633197 | 267.320846913252 | -5.29007928005484 |
104 | 231 | 218.995141542205 | -25.1501097519631 | 268.154968209758 | -12.0048584577947 |
105 | 263 | 263.280365522234 | -6.26945502849838 | 268.989089506264 | 0.28036552223449 |
106 | 264 | 259.556699251239 | -3.26430176703221 | 271.707602515793 | -4.44330074876081 |
107 | 264 | 253.651220251487 | -0.0773357768091877 | 274.426115525322 | -10.348779748513 |
108 | 245 | 235.207207950387 | -24.2594446230739 | 279.052236672687 | -9.79279204961341 |
109 | 297 | 283.897976793753 | 26.4236653861948 | 283.678357820052 | -13.1020232062472 |
110 | 317 | 312.443002980782 | 31.2979190176708 | 290.259078001547 | -4.55699701921753 |
111 | 318 | 311.715301755985 | 27.4449000609741 | 296.839798183041 | -6.2846982440152 |
112 | 315 | 320.343692711929 | 4.67600235024529 | 304.980304937826 | 5.34369271192884 |
113 | 312 | 310.426623405048 | 0.452564902341024 | 313.120811692611 | -1.57337659495164 |
114 | 310 | 300.888610357863 | -3.24364100523016 | 322.355030647367 | -9.11138964213688 |
115 | 306 | 308.441518031074 | -28.030767633197 | 331.589249602123 | 2.44151803107354 |
116 | 313 | 310.416618571051 | -25.1501097519631 | 340.733491180912 | -2.58338142894894 |
117 | 350 | 356.391722268798 | -6.26945502849838 | 349.877732759701 | 6.39172226879776 |
118 | 354 | 353.521072899121 | -3.26430176703221 | 357.743228867911 | -0.478927100878593 |
119 | 371 | 376.468610800688 | -0.0773357768091877 | 365.608724976121 | 5.46861080068823 |
120 | 357 | 366.59329110528 | -24.2594446230739 | 371.666153517794 | 9.59329110527977 |
121 | 419 | 433.852752554338 | 26.4236653861948 | 377.723582059467 | 14.8527525543379 |
122 | 425 | 437.009843201092 | 31.2979190176708 | 381.692237781237 | 12.0098432010923 |
123 | 424 | 434.894206436019 | 27.4449000609741 | 385.660893503007 | 10.8942064360194 |
124 | 399 | 407.126461745117 | 4.67600235024529 | 386.197535904637 | 8.12646174511747 |
125 | 393 | 398.813256791391 | 0.452564902341024 | 386.734178306268 | 5.81325679139115 |
126 | 378 | 372.354470058853 | -3.24364100523016 | 386.889170946377 | -5.64552994114678 |
127 | 371 | 382.986604046711 | -28.030767633197 | 387.044163586486 | 11.986604046711 |
128 | 364 | 366.199063706569 | -25.1501097519631 | 386.951046045394 | 2.19906370656878 |
129 | 384 | 387.411526524196 | -6.26945502849838 | 386.857928504303 | 3.41152652419578 |
130 | 377 | 370.756927114394 | -3.26430176703221 | 386.507374652638 | -6.24307288560584 |
131 | 383 | 379.920514975836 | -0.0773357768091877 | 386.156820800973 | -3.07948502416428 |
132 | 352 | 342.645037288947 | -24.2594446230739 | 385.614407334126 | -9.35496271105256 |