| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.11479686325585 |
| beta | 0.182276928636091 |
| gamma | 0.552028525015516 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 13 | 9737 | 9769.78069418617 | -32.7806941861727 |
| 14 | 9035 | 9093.31591227235 | -58.3159122723482 |
| 15 | 9133 | 9215.67915722477 | -82.6791572247748 |
| 16 | 9487 | 9566.4756962004 | -79.475696200403 |
| 17 | 8700 | 8753.67194272757 | -53.6719427275657 |
| 18 | 9627 | 9659.47888224219 | -32.4788822421888 |
| 19 | 8947 | 9350.82964679519 | -403.829646795191 |
| 20 | 9283 | 9688.29629330246 | -405.296293302461 |
| 21 | 8829 | 9055.06877606413 | -226.068776064132 |
| 22 | 9947 | 9559.30462733899 | 387.695372661006 |
| 23 | 9628 | 9450.02965532102 | 177.970344678983 |
| 24 | 9318 | 8795.73144049256 | 522.268559507442 |
| 25 | 9605 | 9305.11634733775 | 299.883652662253 |
| 26 | 8640 | 8683.02673791596 | -43.0267379159613 |
| 27 | 9214 | 8790.39426326323 | 423.605736736774 |
| 28 | 9567 | 9199.17940140452 | 367.820598595485 |
| 29 | 8547 | 8492.39551643584 | 54.6044835641605 |
| 30 | 9185 | 9421.14866180949 | -236.14866180949 |
| 31 | 9470 | 8937.60742360967 | 532.392576390328 |
| 32 | 9123 | 9416.30780748961 | -293.307807489606 |
| 33 | 9278 | 8926.70135317381 | 351.29864682619 |
| 34 | 10170 | 9858.85165227366 | 311.148347726339 |
| 35 | 9434 | 9690.76166407156 | -256.761664071561 |
| 36 | 9655 | 9191.43644336361 | 463.563556636391 |
| 37 | 9429 | 9633.91207261327 | -204.91207261327 |
| 38 | 8739 | 8805.93614542596 | -66.9361454259579 |
| 39 | 9552 | 9174.25034323883 | 377.749656761171 |
| 40 | 9687 | 9587.1350140513 | 99.8649859486995 |
| 41 | 9019 | 8702.36240765303 | 316.637592346971 |
| 42 | 9672 | 9569.24247373369 | 102.757526266312 |
| 43 | 9206 | 9533.565340431 | -327.565340431001 |
| 44 | 9069 | 9529.10504364352 | -460.105043643516 |
| 45 | 9788 | 9346.48317982708 | 441.516820172916 |
| 46 | 10312 | 10312.1941514859 | -0.19415148594635 |
| 47 | 10105 | 9829.08633616261 | 275.913663837389 |
| 48 | 9863 | 9759.7848112513 | 103.215188748703 |
| 49 | 9656 | 9850.2062507638 | -194.206250763798 |
| 50 | 9295 | 9079.6275415155 | 215.372458484502 |
| 51 | 9946 | 9740.26702875184 | 205.732971248157 |
| 52 | 9701 | 10023.4477784244 | -322.447778424379 |
| 53 | 9049 | 9175.04657773491 | -126.046577734909 |
| 54 | 10190 | 9906.03808865092 | 283.961911349083 |
| 55 | 9706 | 9673.32466064633 | 32.6753393536746 |
| 56 | 9765 | 9651.81359392721 | 113.186406072788 |
| 57 | 9893 | 10009.7694134686 | -116.769413468601 |
| 58 | 9994 | 10733.3832933416 | -739.383293341622 |
| 59 | 10433 | 10283.3685553516 | 149.631444648445 |
| 60 | 10073 | 10101.6100230068 | -28.6100230068132 |
| 61 | 10112 | 10018.9463438137 | 93.0536561862737 |
| 62 | 9266 | 9460.26384711883 | -194.263847118831 |
| 63 | 9820 | 10070.9014034058 | -250.901403405782 |
| 64 | 10097 | 10019.9231307317 | 77.0768692682614 |
| 65 | 9115 | 9285.06041473299 | -170.060414732989 |
| 66 | 10411 | 10212.2471979522 | 198.75280204782 |
| 67 | 9678 | 9823.76969799112 | -145.769697991118 |
| 68 | 10408 | 9800.50024362214 | 607.499756377858 |
| 69 | 10153 | 10095.6073300461 | 57.3926699539279 |
| 70 | 10368 | 10531.7503165482 | -163.750316548214 |
| 71 | 10581 | 10587.944643106 | -6.94464310599506 |
| 72 | 10597 | 10296.1614075979 | 300.838592402088 |
| 73 | 10680 | 10317.9752465686 | 362.024753431351 |
| 74 | 9738 | 9641.77879034817 | 96.2212096518288 |
| 75 | 9556 | 10297.302030776 | -741.302030776027 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 76 | 10363.8533840485 | 10016.4065348286 | 10711.3002332684 |
| 77 | 9480.82132821908 | 9126.12587835917 | 9835.516778079 |
| 78 | 10656.2340502792 | 10286.1890039638 | 11026.2790965946 |
| 79 | 10065.6011955127 | 9684.83604925446 | 10446.3663417709 |
| 80 | 10448.0277221603 | 10047.2370887112 | 10848.8183556094 |
| 81 | 10400.7775179305 | 9980.75076138977 | 10820.8042744712 |
| 82 | 10726.7959500623 | 10279.0268029616 | 11174.565097163 |
| 83 | 10882.2255550467 | 10405.5277085671 | 11358.9234015263 |
| 84 | 10736.8662358861 | 10235.1281848532 | 11238.6042869191 |
| 85 | 10746.9752795585 | 10214.5636850461 | 11279.3868740709 |
| 86 | 9869.05669420563 | 9332.34795435431 | 10405.7654340569 |
| 87 | 10089.733220763 | 9629.77161397141 | 10549.6948275547 |
