| Structural Time Series Model | |||||
| t | Observed | Level | Slope | Seasonal | Stand. Residuals |
| 1 | 37 | 37 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | 30 | 34.0671084694471 | -0.315647737615294 | -0.315647736436525 | -0.29155737328711 |
| 3 | 47 | 39.2754264755743 | 0.113018011779876 | 0.113018011779877 | 0.578107229266551 |
| 4 | 35 | 37.598824630767 | 0.00609094567575728 | 0.00609094567575816 | -0.194826689466057 |
| 5 | 30 | 34.6319916358277 | -0.138701841058417 | -0.138701841058416 | -0.332719357043247 |
| 6 | 43 | 37.8293313150527 | 0.000285651504043671 | 0.000285651504044034 | 0.380389932032702 |
| 7 | 82 | 54.734561944894 | 0.626347559459723 | 0.626347559459723 | 1.95163537461613 |
| 8 | 40 | 49.275539230011 | 0.420159263319843 | 0.420159263319843 | -0.708355607757247 |
| 9 | 47 | 48.5140116900883 | 0.382764617172598 | 0.382764617172598 | -0.138315762789636 |
| 10 | 19 | 37.4418372151195 | 0.0393364741529199 | 0.0393364741529204 | -1.34590443414074 |
| 11 | 52 | 42.9493181843498 | 0.196170716352213 | 0.196170716352213 | 0.64421929754689 |
| 12 | 136 | 78.093424739506 | 1.16140934512201 | 1.16140934512201 | 4.1255466290521 |
| 13 | 80 | 82.4051286635396 | 0.803640420704622 | -8.84004463151614 | 0.530695410998642 |
| 14 | 42 | 65.0516154532863 | 0.054273285116369 | 0.0542732966009278 | -1.77265794052499 |
| 15 | 54 | 60.6291425159306 | -0.0882433306326506 | -0.0882433306326515 | -0.486103540212186 |
| 16 | 66 | 62.6908737073002 | -0.0332820720582505 | -0.0332820720582461 | 0.244989299468995 |
| 17 | 81 | 69.659981821208 | 0.117306980057542 | 0.117306980057543 | 0.817044165274097 |
| 18 | 63 | 67.1730867899004 | 0.0681274581474026 | 0.0681274581474005 | -0.307662324455832 |
| 19 | 137 | 93.4364576121278 | 0.517994326718919 | 0.517994326718919 | 3.11620636764878 |
| 20 | 72 | 85.5313682428907 | 0.38294713729738 | 0.382947137297377 | -1.0060762643699 |
| 21 | 107 | 93.6608381394277 | 0.50107759541847 | 0.501077595418471 | 0.927553150663626 |
| 22 | 58 | 80.4581273642317 | 0.299769564484993 | 0.299769564484998 | -1.64344369426388 |
| 23 | 36 | 63.9281949844306 | 0.0595839556663823 | 0.0595839556663851 | -2.02042796950647 |
| 24 | 52 | 59.4900687982678 | -0.00312603699070098 | -0.00312603699070027 | -0.540347391309787 |
| 25 | 79 | 65.1690061337992 | -0.296958211049827 | 3.26654030799338 | 0.816165034142767 |
| 26 | 77 | 69.9327176463266 | -0.163315951792059 | -0.163315940386716 | 0.539272847706658 |
| 27 | 54 | 63.6966200288003 | -0.286952606199976 | -0.286952606199978 | -0.689459781963792 |
| 28 | 84 | 71.3619353156005 | -0.156428681461017 | -0.156428681461011 | 0.929872416244485 |
| 29 | 48 | 62.5185472551475 | -0.277017599502774 | -0.277017599502772 | -1.03081304047755 |
| 30 | 96 | 74.9979214887972 | -0.120646338515087 | -0.12064633851509 | 1.52551249058199 |
| 31 | 83 | 77.9573560329193 | -0.0861220405457666 | -0.0861220405457671 | 0.369942031517822 |
| 32 | 66 | 73.475655442873 | -0.132363328770627 | -0.132363328770631 | -0.529281927289174 |
| 33 | 61 | 68.7937784906781 | -0.178117807392957 | -0.178117807392956 | -0.548659556997052 |
| 34 | 53 | 62.8678232773988 | -0.234077739831739 | -0.234077739831734 | -0.693843429845988 |
| 35 | 30 | 50.5756045582557 | -0.348675410022505 | -0.348675410022502 | -1.45649856690811 |
| 36 | 74 | 59.2017176226624 | -0.264959389765092 | -0.264959389765091 | 1.08452208944176 |
| 37 | 69 | 61.1893275385438 | -0.340371242225592 | 3.74408365310381 | 0.306763103842066 |
| 38 | 59 | 60.2507045215378 | -0.351987472293371 | -0.351987460661899 | -0.0662477604940434 |
| 39 | 42 | 53.165462896579 | -0.452754202205243 | -0.452754202205246 | -0.780050187605597 |
| 40 | 65 | 57.5263499867393 | -0.394569173516563 | -0.394569173516559 | 0.569637433276139 |
| 41 | 70 | 62.104414752382 | -0.343605639057002 | -0.343605639056999 | 0.594750079167233 |
| 42 | 100 | 76.1680237047132 | -0.212868233221141 | -0.212868233221141 | 1.7329364809099 |
| 43 | 63 | 71.2077588727417 | -0.252364397462025 | -0.252364397462025 | -0.5728347575006 |
| 44 | 105 | 83.7167841401997 | -0.152464752288948 | -0.15246475228895 | 1.54266391690678 |
| 45 | 82 | 83.0393997167564 | -0.156402946545059 | -0.156402946545059 | -0.0635256848848505 |
| 46 | 81 | 82.2413689978863 | -0.161074340406145 | -0.16107434040614 | -0.0777035770967434 |
| 47 | 75 | 79.5098014792954 | -0.179386209892841 | -0.179386209892836 | -0.311435531014723 |
| 48 | 102 | 87.8171010762846 | -0.119908843904937 | -0.119908843904937 | 1.02853430141167 |
| 49 | 121 | 98.1776819135165 | -0.379309687639421 | 4.17240654731904 | 1.38956317503951 |
| 50 | 98 | 98.0252746940557 | -0.375826138816472 | -0.375826122198079 | 0.0256752902574835 |
| 51 | 76 | 89.5513253918736 | -0.471636486113598 | -0.471636486113606 | -0.949061240119998 |
| 52 | 77 | 84.714259744666 | -0.513397333426553 | -0.513397333426542 | -0.520171726901932 |
| 53 | 63 | 76.4679980024167 | -0.576211520976846 | -0.576211520976839 | -0.9291482160112 |
| 54 | 37 | 61.6153897973109 | -0.67905135696167 | -0.679051356961675 | -1.72302404557671 |
| 55 | 35 | 51.5421476988491 | -0.741189246660368 | -0.741189246660366 | -1.13660581148644 |
| 56 | 23 | 40.7466736977311 | -0.803861374233485 | -0.803861374233488 | -1.21823087062035 |
| 57 | 40 | 40.2625459327507 | -0.801948470293772 | -0.801948470293772 | 0.0387744141898792 |
| 58 | 29 | 35.8754051792646 | -0.822793627692819 | -0.822793627692814 | -0.435015167261759 |
| 59 | 37 | 36.0806287857274 | -0.816936800617845 | -0.81693680061784 | 0.124779243659257 |
| 60 | 51 | 41.4056602205176 | -0.782464314554694 | -0.782464314554693 | 0.74567259866294 |
| 61 | 20 | 30.8153767875455 | -0.58990922872239 | 6.48900150796436 | -1.2795859653687 |
| 62 | 28 | 29.5928933436866 | -0.597939928717823 | -0.597939920467862 | -0.0725787027359042 |
| 63 | 13 | 23.1643183586142 | -0.654977398330396 | -0.654977398330402 | -0.688443432385987 |
| 64 | 22 | 22.5639431550462 | -0.654545207431502 | -0.6545452074315 | 0.00653550044434713 |
| 65 | 25 | 23.306533892064 | -0.645145844144243 | -0.645145844144238 | 0.168379159887243 |
| 66 | 13 | 19.3067220429044 | -0.665180437022895 | -0.665180437022897 | -0.405776123536171 |
| 67 | 16 | 17.9072739536116 | -0.669211175851742 | -0.66921117585174 | -0.0889978050882027 |
| 68 | 13 | 15.9132663161887 | -0.676071447296902 | -0.676071447296905 | -0.160764797775511 |
| 69 | 16 | 15.7710514385449 | -0.673415469669871 | -0.673415469669871 | 0.0648302156025662 |
| 70 | 17 | 16.0530129292305 | -0.668791873232214 | -0.66879187323221 | 0.116070036189566 |
| 71 | 9 | 13.264738227476 | -0.678852257032985 | -0.67885225703298 | -0.257571298817967 |
| 72 | 17 | 14.4742987162362 | -0.670013552410672 | -0.670013552410673 | 0.229532515641097 |
| 73 | 25 | 15.1084490062226 | -0.691230650939735 | 7.60353715325385 | 0.168326295734259 |
| 74 | 14 | 14.5224713507189 | -0.69009159317888 | -0.690091586140234 | 0.0121933502663462 |
| 75 | 8 | 11.8921752137748 | -0.706269824838547 | -0.706269824838553 | -0.230287014060901 |
| 76 | 7 | 9.88411968654295 | -0.715057227331262 | -0.715057227331259 | -0.156306743775596 |
| 77 | 10 | 9.74499100961332 | -0.711750640232233 | -0.711750640232228 | 0.0695565559252094 |
| 78 | 7 | 8.54205051727032 | -0.714255871076029 | -0.714255871076031 | -0.0595069935421055 |
| 79 | 10 | 8.899339687858 | -0.70922870834541 | -0.709228708345409 | 0.130042000853788 |
| 80 | 3 | 6.52786353845009 | -0.716590430004107 | -0.716590430004109 | -0.201933369639052 |
