| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.0387398850173385 |
| beta | FALSE |
| gamma | FALSE |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 2 | 25 | 24 | 1 |
| 3 | 17 | 24.0387398850173 | -7.03873988501734 |
| 4 | 18 | 23.7660599112048 | -5.76605991120481 |
| 5 | 18 | 23.5426834132417 | -5.54268341324165 |
| 6 | 16 | 23.3279604951252 | -7.32796049512516 |
| 7 | 20 | 23.0440761481324 | -3.04407614813242 |
| 8 | 16 | 22.9261489881697 | -6.92614898816974 |
| 9 | 18 | 22.6578307727551 | -4.65783077275509 |
| 10 | 17 | 22.4773869441883 | -5.47738694418834 |
| 11 | 23 | 22.265193603775 | 0.73480639622499 |
| 12 | 30 | 22.2936599190748 | 7.70634008092523 |
| 13 | 23 | 22.5922026477143 | 0.407797352285677 |
| 14 | 18 | 22.6080006702522 | -4.60800067025225 |
| 15 | 15 | 22.4294872541269 | -7.42948725412686 |
| 16 | 12 | 22.1416697721642 | -10.1416697721642 |
| 17 | 21 | 21.7487826513067 | -0.748782651306744 |
| 18 | 15 | 21.7197748974921 | -6.71977489749214 |
| 19 | 20 | 21.4594515906209 | -1.4594515906209 |
| 20 | 31 | 21.4029126038119 | 9.59708739618812 |
| 21 | 27 | 21.7747026660416 | 5.22529733395845 |
| 22 | 34 | 21.9771300839405 | 12.0228699160595 |
| 23 | 21 | 22.4428946820671 | -1.44289468206707 |
| 24 | 31 | 22.3869971079917 | 8.61300289200833 |
| 25 | 19 | 22.7206638496821 | -3.72066384968208 |
| 26 | 16 | 22.5765257599572 | -6.57652575995722 |
| 27 | 20 | 22.3217519082029 | -2.32175190820292 |
| 28 | 21 | 22.2318075062404 | -1.23180750624035 |
| 29 | 22 | 22.1840874250851 | -0.18408742508511 |
| 30 | 17 | 22.1769558994042 | -5.17695589940418 |
| 31 | 24 | 21.9764012231214 | 2.02359877687858 |
| 32 | 25 | 22.0547952070589 | 2.94520479294107 |
| 33 | 26 | 22.1688921020900 | 3.83110789791002 |
| 34 | 25 | 22.3173087815440 | 2.68269121845597 |
| 35 | 17 | 22.4212359308840 | -5.42123593088404 |
| 36 | 32 | 22.2112178742697 | 9.78878212573028 |
| 37 | 33 | 22.5904341682803 | 10.4095658317197 |
| 38 | 13 | 22.9936995516815 | -9.99369955168153 |
| 39 | 32 | 22.6065447801516 | 9.39345521984844 |
| 40 | 25 | 22.970446155284 | 2.02955384471599 |
| 41 | 29 | 23.0490708378648 | 5.9509291621352 |
| 42 | 22 | 23.2796091493522 | -1.27960914935225 |
| 43 | 18 | 23.2300372380392 | -5.23003723803921 |
| 44 | 17 | 23.0274261968012 | -6.02742619680117 |
| 45 | 20 | 22.7939243989866 | -2.7939243989866 |
| 46 | 15 | 22.6856880890227 | -7.68568808902272 |
| 47 | 20 | 22.3879454161749 | -2.38794541617485 |
| 48 | 33 | 22.2954366853246 | 10.7045633146754 |
| 49 | 29 | 22.7101302372959 | 6.2898697627041 |
| 50 | 23 | 22.9537990686771 | 0.0462009313229039 |
| 51 | 26 | 22.9555888874442 | 3.04441111255576 |
| 52 | 18 | 23.0735290238902 | -5.07352902389016 |
| 53 | 20 | 22.8769810928725 | -2.87698109287253 |
| 54 | 11 | 22.7655271761376 | -11.7655271761376 |
| 55 | 28 | 22.3097320061656 | 5.69026799383435 |
| 56 | 26 | 22.5301723339646 | 3.46982766603537 |
| 57 | 22 | 22.6645930587768 | -0.664593058776823 |
| 58 | 17 | 22.6388468000965 | -5.63884680009649 |
| 59 | 12 | 22.4203985234304 | -10.4203985234304 |
| 60 | 14 | 22.0167134827978 | -8.01671348279783 |
| 61 | 17 | 21.7061469242573 | -4.70614692425729 |
| 62 | 21 | 21.5238313335369 | -0.523831333536862 |
| 63 | 19 | 21.5035381679072 | -2.50353816790717 |
| 64 | 18 | 21.4065513871459 | -3.40655138714592 |
| 65 | 10 | 21.2745819781022 | -11.2745819781022 |
| 66 | 29 | 20.837805968652 | 8.162194031348 |
| 67 | 31 | 21.1540084269156 | 9.84599157308437 |
| 68 | 19 | 21.5354410083386 | -2.53544100833860 |
| 69 | 9 | 21.4372183152073 | -12.4372183152073 |
| 70 | 20 | 20.9554019077406 | -0.955401907740647 |
| 71 | 28 | 20.9183897476894 | 7.08161025231057 |
| 72 | 19 | 21.1927305146015 | -2.19273051460155 |
| 73 | 30 | 21.1077843865919 | 8.89221561340813 |
| 74 | 29 | 21.4522677970047 | 7.54773220299531 |
| 75 | 26 | 21.7446660746904 | 4.25533392530961 |
| 76 | 23 | 21.9095172216673 | 1.09048277833273 |
| 77 | 13 | 21.9517623991133 | -8.95176239911326 |
| 78 | 21 | 21.6049721530691 | -0.604972153069081 |
| 79 | 19 | 21.5815356014205 | -2.58153560142049 |
| 80 | 28 | 21.4815272090533 | 6.5184727909467 |
| 81 | 23 | 21.7340520954632 | 1.26594790453678 |
| 82 | 18 | 21.7830947717229 | -3.78309477172292 |
| 83 | 21 | 21.6365381152567 | -0.63653811525668 |
| 84 | 20 | 21.6118787018625 | -1.61187870186248 |
| 85 | 23 | 21.5494347062904 | 1.45056529370957 |
| 86 | 21 | 21.6056294389789 | -0.605629438978887 |
| 87 | 21 | 21.5821674241497 | -0.58216742414973 |
| 88 | 15 | 21.5596143250773 | -6.55961432507733 |
| 89 | 28 | 21.3054956203658 | 6.69450437963425 |
| 90 | 19 | 21.5648399502809 | -2.56483995028085 |
| 91 | 26 | 21.4654783455191 | 4.53452165448090 |
| 92 | 10 | 21.6411451930223 | -11.6411451930223 |
| 93 | 16 | 21.1901685667745 | -5.19016856677449 |
| 94 | 22 | 20.9891020332770 | 1.01089796672296 |
| 95 | 19 | 21.0282641042722 | -2.02826410427215 |
| 96 | 31 | 20.9496893860879 | 10.0503106139121 |
| 97 | 31 | 21.3390372636593 | 9.66096273634065 |
| 98 | 29 | 21.7133018492220 | 7.28669815077803 |
| 99 | 19 | 21.9955876977392 | -2.99558769773917 |
| 100 | 22 | 21.8795389747694 | 0.120461025230600 |
| 101 | 23 | 21.8842056210359 | 1.11579437896409 |
| 102 | 15 | 21.9274313669800 | -6.92743136697997 |
| 103 | 20 | 21.6590634723577 | -1.65906347235766 |
| 104 | 18 | 21.5947915442021 | -3.59479154420206 |
| 105 | 23 | 21.4555297331184 | 1.54447026688163 |
| 106 | 25 | 21.5153623336701 | 3.48463766632993 |
| 107 | 21 | 21.6503567961908 | -0.650356796190774 |
| 108 | 24 | 21.6251620486861 | 2.3748379513139 |
| 109 | 25 | 21.7171629978548 | 3.28283700214519 |
| 110 | 17 | 21.8443397258486 | -4.84433972584858 |
| 111 | 13 | 21.6566705618843 | -8.65667056188428 |
| 112 | 28 | 21.3213121396839 | 6.6786878603161 |
| 113 | 21 | 21.5800437394592 | -0.580043739459242 |
| 114 | 25 | 21.5575729116876 | 3.44242708831244 |
| 115 | 9 | 21.6909321412694 | -12.6909321412694 |
| 116 | 16 | 21.1992868893537 | -5.19928688935374 |
| 117 | 19 | 20.9978671130880 | -1.99786711308803 |
| 118 | 17 | 20.9204699708471 | -3.92046997084708 |
| 119 | 25 | 20.7685914149625 | 4.23140858503747 |
| 120 | 20 | 20.9325156970083 | -0.932515697008263 |
| 121 | 29 | 20.8963901461293 | 8.1036098538707 |
| 122 | 14 | 21.2103230600936 | -7.21032306009362 |
| 123 | 22 | 20.9309959738077 | 1.06900402619227 |
| 124 | 15 | 20.9724090668655 | -5.9724090668655 |
| 125 | 19 | 20.7410386263386 | -1.74103862633862 |
| 126 | 20 | 20.6735909901435 | -0.673590990143516 |
| 127 | 15 | 20.6474961526366 | -5.64749615263664 |
| 128 | 20 | 20.4287128010476 | -0.428712801047638 |
| 129 | 18 | 20.4121045164296 | -2.41210451642959 |
| 130 | 33 | 20.3186598648133 | 12.6813401351867 |
| 131 | 22 | 20.8099335235162 | 1.1900664764838 |
| 132 | 16 | 20.8560365619782 | -4.85603656197817 |
| 133 | 17 | 20.6679142639271 | -3.66791426392715 |
| 134 | 16 | 20.5258196870892 | -4.52581968708915 |
| 135 | 21 | 20.3504899528021 | 0.649510047197886 |
| 136 | 26 | 20.3756518973482 | 5.62434810265183 |
| 137 | 18 | 20.5935384961424 | -2.59353849614239 |
| 138 | 18 | 20.4930651130138 | -2.49306511301379 |
| 139 | 17 | 20.3964840571949 | -3.3964840571949 |
| 140 | 22 | 20.2649046553559 | 1.73509534464406 |
| 141 | 30 | 20.3321220495016 | 9.66787795049843 |
| 142 | 30 | 20.7066545296655 | 9.29334547033445 |
| 143 | 24 | 21.0666776646127 | 2.93332233538729 |
| 144 | 21 | 21.1803142346044 | -0.180314234604406 |
| 145 | 21 | 21.1733288818888 | -0.173328881888843 |
| 146 | 29 | 21.1666141409343 | 7.83338585906571 |
| 147 | 31 | 21.4700786084109 | 9.52992139158906 |
| 148 | 20 | 21.8392666673454 | -1.83926666734537 |
| 149 | 16 | 21.7680136881362 | -5.76801368813619 |
| 150 | 22 | 21.5445615010794 | 0.455438498920639 |
| 151 | 20 | 21.56220513616 | -1.56220513616002 |
| 152 | 28 | 21.5016854888117 | 6.49831451118832 |
| 153 | 38 | 21.7534294457816 | 16.2465705542184 |
| 154 | 22 | 22.3828197209781 | -0.382819720978119 |
| 155 | 20 | 22.3679893290051 | -2.36798932900506 |
| 156 | 17 | 22.2762536946771 | -5.27625369467712 |
| 157 | 28 | 22.071852233223 | 5.92814776677698 |
| 158 | 22 | 22.3015079960738 | -0.301507996073752 |
| 159 | 31 | 22.2898276109740 | 8.71017238902595 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 160 | 22.6272586878061 | 11.1496687818407 | 34.1048485937715 |
| 161 | 22.6272586878061 | 11.1410593496644 | 34.1134580259478 |
| 162 | 22.6272586878061 | 11.1324563658201 | 34.1220610097922 |
| 163 | 22.6272586878061 | 11.1238598158403 | 34.1306575597719 |
| 164 | 22.6272586878061 | 11.1152696853117 | 34.1392476903005 |
| 165 | 22.6272586878061 | 11.1066859598745 | 34.1478314157377 |
| 166 | 22.6272586878061 | 11.0981086252226 | 34.1564087503896 |
| 167 | 22.6272586878061 | 11.0895376671029 | 34.1649797085094 |
| 168 | 22.6272586878061 | 11.0809730713152 | 34.1735443042971 |
| 169 | 22.6272586878061 | 11.0724148237120 | 34.1821025519003 |
| 170 | 22.6272586878061 | 11.0638629101981 | 34.1906544654141 |
| 171 | 22.6272586878061 | 11.0553173167305 | 34.1992000588817 |
