| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.098155242834915 |
| beta | 0.0343410839300175 |
| gamma | 0.291862308416832 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 13 | 23 | 23.9407051282051 | -0.940705128205131 |
| 14 | 18 | 18.4734042273127 | -0.47340422731267 |
| 15 | 15 | 14.6753756290066 | 0.324624370993439 |
| 16 | 12 | 10.8734386182343 | 1.12656138176569 |
| 17 | 21 | 19.6123466279767 | 1.38765337202334 |
| 18 | 15 | 14.0482262950089 | 0.951773704991053 |
| 19 | 20 | 21.5695302857669 | -1.56953028576691 |
| 20 | 31 | 18.004731231842 | 12.995268768158 |
| 21 | 27 | 21.9550141313493 | 5.04498586865068 |
| 22 | 34 | 22.1002738391955 | 11.8997261608045 |
| 23 | 21 | 29.7501400020546 | -8.75014000205462 |
| 24 | 31 | 36.1352856044103 | -5.13528560441032 |
| 25 | 19 | 28.7353310927983 | -9.73533109279827 |
| 26 | 16 | 22.5549834855285 | -6.55498348552847 |
| 27 | 20 | 18.3767607337301 | 1.6232392662699 |
| 28 | 21 | 14.9244403853849 | 6.07555961461514 |
| 29 | 22 | 24.245592945388 | -2.24559294538802 |
| 30 | 17 | 18.2256250315818 | -1.22562503158176 |
| 31 | 24 | 24.8777271260046 | -0.877727126004594 |
| 32 | 25 | 25.2249952297038 | -0.224995229703811 |
| 33 | 26 | 25.7509447799475 | 0.249055220052501 |
| 34 | 25 | 27.1794943734804 | -2.17949437348036 |
| 35 | 17 | 27.9143781778676 | -10.9143781778676 |
| 36 | 32 | 34.9335903984696 | -2.93359039846963 |
| 37 | 33 | 26.4413824311170 | 6.55861756888296 |
| 38 | 13 | 22.6548450980675 | -9.65484509806753 |
| 39 | 32 | 20.2718927525035 | 11.7281072474965 |
| 40 | 25 | 18.9643057982640 | 6.03569420173602 |
| 41 | 29 | 26.0721354148673 | 2.92786458513271 |
| 42 | 22 | 20.8267162939575 | 1.17328370604254 |
| 43 | 18 | 27.8122182439617 | -9.81221824396166 |
| 44 | 17 | 27.430574310146 | -10.430574310146 |
| 45 | 20 | 27.0214157974156 | -7.02141579741562 |
| 46 | 15 | 27.0144401806347 | -12.0144401806347 |
| 47 | 20 | 24.3690123524528 | -4.36901235245283 |
| 48 | 33 | 34.0375962623899 | -1.03759626238988 |
| 49 | 29 | 28.1426184114701 | 0.857381588529947 |
| 50 | 23 | 19.4222806898592 | 3.57771931014081 |
| 51 | 26 | 23.9045047988361 | 2.0954952011639 |
| 52 | 18 | 20.0586595880739 | -2.05865958807387 |
| 53 | 20 | 25.4322347737117 | -5.43223477371167 |
| 54 | 11 | 18.7544917138134 | -7.75449171381337 |
| 55 | 28 | 21.7921437713945 | 6.20785622860549 |
| 56 | 26 | 22.694195038791 | 3.30580496120899 |
| 57 | 22 | 24.4509772793287 | -2.45097727932865 |
| 58 | 17 | 23.5140868067799 | -6.51408680677995 |
| 59 | 12 | 23.3751842851588 | -11.3751842851588 |
| 60 | 14 | 33.163585956078 | -19.163585956078 |
| 61 | 17 | 25.8577677766990 | -8.85776777669897 |
| 62 | 21 | 16.7366570692108 | 4.26334293078918 |
| 63 | 19 | 20.7351344812155 | -1.73513448121549 |
| 64 | 18 | 15.2460456319187 | 2.75395436808126 |
| 65 | 10 | 20.0464388758477 | -10.0464388758477 |
| 66 | 29 | 12.1313910944195 | 16.8686089055805 |
| 67 | 31 | 21.1708756869899 | 9.8291243130101 |
| 68 | 19 | 21.5865716512114 | -2.58657165121142 |
| 69 | 9 | 21.1519161460759 | -12.1519161460759 |
| 70 | 20 | 18.0628572670495 | 1.93714273295050 |
| 71 | 28 | 17.3719618880004 | 10.6280381119996 |
| 72 | 19 | 27.2422284888402 | -8.24222848884021 |
| 73 | 30 | 23.7300062409474 | 6.26999375905261 |
| 74 | 29 | 19.6073898868591 | 9.3926101131409 |
| 75 | 26 | 22.6076938397626 | 3.39230616023736 |
| 76 | 23 | 18.8980150381552 | 4.10198496184484 |
| 77 | 13 | 20.5605510453933 | -7.56055104539328 |
| 78 | 21 | 20.081391665784 | 0.918608334216017 |
| 79 | 19 | 25.7560969619197 | -6.75609696191973 |
| 80 | 28 | 21.2736618807934 | 6.72633811920658 |
| 81 | 23 | 19.2645580477712 | 3.73544195222881 |
| 82 | 18 | 21.5261016266073 | -3.52610162660731 |
| 83 | 21 | 22.6508449980264 | -1.65084499802639 |
| 84 | 20 | 26.3718732685513 | -6.37187326855135 |
| 85 | 23 | 26.892293994386 | -3.89229399438598 |
| 86 | 21 | 22.5890896770853 | -1.58908967708532 |
| 87 | 21 | 22.890074592955 | -1.89007459295501 |
| 88 | 15 | 18.7888538806877 | -3.78885388068774 |
| 89 | 28 | 16.5206697924175 | 11.4793302075825 |
| 90 | 19 | 20.1199466417961 | -1.11994664179613 |
| 91 | 26 | 23.5453263708249 | 2.45467362917508 |
| 92 | 10 | 23.5176592493214 | -13.5176592493214 |
| 93 | 16 | 18.6679263427215 | -2.66792634272150 |
| 94 | 22 | 18.3016906625713 | 3.69830933742869 |
| 95 | 19 | 20.5655827255514 | -1.56558272555139 |
| 96 | 31 | 22.9890644294635 | 8.01093557053652 |
| 97 | 31 | 25.5591029653854 | 5.4408970346146 |
| 98 | 29 | 22.7949054740391 | 6.20509452596095 |
| 99 | 19 | 23.8246475836695 | -4.82464758366946 |
| 100 | 22 | 18.9686459288086 | 3.03135407119143 |
| 101 | 23 | 21.4447466123348 | 1.5552533876652 |
| 102 | 15 | 20.7761976475165 | -5.77619764751653 |
| 103 | 20 | 24.6923253165335 | -4.69232531653347 |
| 104 | 18 | 19.7417940100302 | -1.74179401003025 |
| 105 | 23 | 18.9262252706317 | 4.07377472936827 |
| 106 | 25 | 20.9426273425743 | 4.05737265742570 |
| 107 | 21 | 21.9026599410408 | -0.902659941040831 |
| 108 | 24 | 26.9605532153950 | -2.96055321539497 |
| 109 | 25 | 27.7888928073504 | -2.78889280735043 |
| 110 | 17 | 24.4019871167118 | -7.40198711671178 |
| 111 | 13 | 21.1310096444457 | -8.13100964444574 |
| 112 | 28 | 17.9452145586073 | 10.0547854413927 |
| 113 | 21 | 20.6727748948518 | 0.327225105148205 |
| 114 | 25 | 17.9004090991798 | 7.0995909008202 |
| 115 | 9 | 23.3555197336149 | -14.3555197336149 |
| 116 | 16 | 18.1904114571158 | -2.19041145711583 |
| 117 | 19 | 18.8173319815893 | 0.182668018410684 |
| 118 | 17 | 20.3901497325718 | -3.39014973257184 |
| 119 | 25 | 19.2311781730949 | 5.76882182690513 |
| 120 | 20 | 24.3422946477942 | -4.34229464779417 |
| 121 | 29 | 25.0155846874287 | 3.98441531257131 |
| 122 | 14 | 21.0375047068512 | -7.03750470685117 |
| 123 | 22 | 17.5698656660359 | 4.43013433396406 |
| 124 | 15 | 20.4055699810182 | -5.40556998101823 |
| 125 | 19 | 19.0048598459936 | -0.00485984599361799 |
| 126 | 20 | 17.9310429487519 | 2.06895705124815 |
| 127 | 15 | 17.1766773394644 | -2.17667733946443 |
| 128 | 20 | 16.3816739262784 | 3.61832607372156 |
| 129 | 18 | 18.195616076569 | -0.195616076569014 |
| 130 | 33 | 18.7818454174540 | 14.2181545825460 |
| 131 | 22 | 21.8123081876901 | 0.187691812309911 |
| 132 | 16 | 23.7457153533617 | -7.7457153533617 |
| 133 | 17 | 26.2966806952366 | -9.29668069523663 |
| 134 | 16 | 18.0891232220929 | -2.08912322209294 |
| 135 | 21 | 18.1175831505994 | 2.88241684940057 |
| 136 | 26 | 18.1991945695216 | 7.80080543047845 |
| 137 | 18 | 19.5475436969447 | -1.54754369694466 |
| 138 | 18 | 18.8942020398857 | -0.894202039885734 |
| 139 | 17 | 16.7475253234629 | 0.252474676537052 |
| 140 | 22 | 17.7405238770503 | 4.25947612294967 |
| 141 | 30 | 18.6399136566837 | 11.3600863433163 |
| 142 | 30 | 24.2196608145824 | 5.78033918541763 |
| 143 | 24 | 22.7657965052121 | 1.23420349478794 |
| 144 | 21 | 22.7541739536077 | -1.7541739536077 |
| 145 | 21 | 25.5456373902177 | -4.54563739021775 |
| 146 | 29 | 19.7782013738207 | 9.22179862617935 |
| 147 | 31 | 22.3402434183874 | 8.65975658161259 |
| 148 | 20 | 24.4177706252788 | -4.41777062527876 |
| 149 | 16 | 22.1992440725596 | -6.19924407255963 |
| 150 | 22 | 21.3386654672080 | 0.661334532791972 |
| 151 | 20 | 19.7291209263115 | 0.270879073688477 |
| 152 | 28 | 21.8613150328721 | 6.13868496712787 |
| 153 | 38 | 24.9031650989477 | 13.0968349010523 |
| 154 | 22 | 29.2795896433223 | -7.27958964332232 |
| 155 | 20 | 25.3980709242075 | -5.39807092420746 |
| 156 | 17 | 23.9773706994309 | -6.97737069943092 |
| 157 | 28 | 25.5322893165103 | 2.46771068348967 |
| 158 | 22 | 24.1115721224774 | -2.11157212247739 |
| 159 | 31 | 25.4095780065939 | 5.59042199340615 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 160 | 23.7296244693920 | 11.0971215548138 | 36.3621273839703 |
| 161 | 21.4766920955035 | 8.77925114622493 | 34.1741330447821 |
| 162 | 23.0521781224104 | 10.2857800612796 | 35.8185761835411 |
| 163 | 21.2944900039497 | 8.4550392924907 | 34.1339407154087 |
| 164 | 24.9632178025419 | 12.0465480184480 | 37.8798875866358 |
| 165 | 29.2319479837333 | 16.2338274667531 | 42.2300685007136 |
| 166 | 26.9132713398171 | 13.8294088802634 | 39.9971337993708 |
| 167 | 24.2198553063170 | 11.0459058502224 | 37.3938047624115 |
| 168 | 22.9098348438952 | 9.64140518894856 | 36.1782644988419 |
| 169 | 27.6557456938485 | 14.2884001506674 | 41.0230912370295 |
| 170 | 24.7992025169713 | 11.3284685109857 | 38.2699365229570 |
| 171 | 28.3505907056985 | 14.7719642959105 | 41.9292171154866 |
