Multiple Linear Regression - Estimated Regression Equation |
O[t] = -0.578264633807956 + 0.92553541241128B[t] + 0.0132183880731032CM[t] + 0.0160035232163502CM_B[t] -1.31048736184262D[t] + 1.32524772719412D_B[t] + 0.406327339245112PE[t] -0.394585656390905PE_B[t] -0.341990685460131PC[t] + 0.363464570658179PC_B[t] + 0.942105175460257PS[t] + 0.0146495184249108PS_B[t] + e[t] |
Multiple Linear Regression - Ordinary Least Squares | |||||
Variable | Parameter | S.D. | T-STAT H0: parameter = 0 | 2-tail p-value | 1-tail p-value |
(Intercept) | -0.578264633807956 | 1.018728 | -0.5676 | 0.57115 | 0.285575 |
B | 0.92553541241128 | 0.026458 | 34.9813 | 0 | 0 |
CM | 0.0132183880731032 | 0.08117 | 0.1628 | 0.870862 | 0.435431 |
CM_B | 0.0160035232163502 | 0.079044 | 0.2025 | 0.839834 | 0.419917 |
D | -1.31048736184262 | 0.218181 | -6.0064 | 0 | 0 |
D_B | 1.32524772719412 | 0.221044 | 5.9954 | 0 | 0 |
PE | 0.406327339245112 | 0.143549 | 2.8306 | 0.005297 | 0.002649 |
PE_B | -0.394585656390905 | 0.151846 | -2.5986 | 0.010314 | 0.005157 |
PC | -0.341990685460131 | 0.108022 | -3.1659 | 0.00188 | 0.00094 |
PC_B | 0.363464570658179 | 0.109279 | 3.326 | 0.001113 | 0.000556 |
PS | 0.942105175460257 | 0.048185 | 19.5519 | 0 | 0 |
PS_B | 0.0146495184249108 | 0.030566 | 0.4793 | 0.632459 | 0.316229 |
Multiple Linear Regression - Regression Statistics | |
Multiple R | 0.986054290328691 |
R-squared | 0.972303063475619 |
Adjusted R-squared | 0.970230503599645 |
F-TEST (value) | 469.131471059977 |
F-TEST (DF numerator) | 11 |
F-TEST (DF denominator) | 147 |
p-value | 0 |
Multiple Linear Regression - Residual Statistics | |
Residual Standard Deviation | 1.43270045551944 |
Sum Squared Residuals | 301.736697501106 |
Multiple Linear Regression - Actuals, Interpolation, and Residuals | |||
Time or Index | Actuals | Interpolation Forecast | Residuals Prediction Error |
1 | 26 | 24.6041995514881 | 1.39580044851185 |
2 | 23 | 25.4130327883993 | -2.41303278839925 |
3 | 25 | 24.2183183396727 | 0.78168166032734 |
4 | 23 | 19.5179366599762 | 3.48206334002381 |
5 | 20 | 22.3741165311321 | -2.37411653113214 |
6 | 29 | 22.2387016296813 | 6.76129837031869 |
7 | 20 | 20.2205856699302 | -0.220585669930177 |
8 | 16 | 16.6015594595828 | -0.601559459582769 |
9 | 18 | 18.4816387188737 | -0.481638718873717 |
10 | 17 | 17.4960001377340 | -0.49600013773396 |
11 | 23 | 23.0502803334575 | -0.0502803334575275 |
12 | 30 | 29.5644417477413 | 0.435558252258724 |
13 | 23 | 22.7065622191804 | 0.293437780819601 |
14 | 18 | 18.2815495853943 | -0.281549585394317 |
15 | 15 | 15.7286961091583 | -0.728696109158332 |
16 | 12 | 12.7283106162804 | -0.728310616280428 |
17 | 21 | 20.9498195332017 | 0.0501804667983207 |
18 | 15 | 15.3891673348079 | -0.389167334807894 |
19 | 20 | 20.2068579140039 | -0.206857914003871 |
20 | 31 | 30.6461690533045 | 0.353830946695542 |
21 | 27 | 26.8465542387064 | 0.153445761293572 |
22 | 34 | 33.4530317080726 | 0.546968291927387 |
23 | 21 | 21.1673111384559 | -0.167311138455912 |
24 | 31 | 30.5027986502654 | 0.497201349734574 |
25 | 19 | 19.3078180295097 | -0.307818029509666 |
26 | 16 | 16.5787508582618 | -0.578750858261844 |
27 | 20 | 20.3178371410299 | -0.317837141029893 |
28 | 21 | 21.1055840416876 | -0.105584041687578 |
29 | 22 | 22.1827699761436 | -0.182769976143621 |
30 | 17 | 17.5205361096234 | -0.52053610962345 |
31 | 24 | 23.9606385098554 | 0.0393614901445705 |
32 | 25 | 25.2453422813576 | -0.245342281357636 |
33 | 26 | 26.0625779104939 | -0.0625779104938981 |
34 | 25 | 24.9901215197081 | 0.00987848029186374 |
35 | 17 | 17.6352757199115 | -0.635275719911508 |
36 | 32 | 31.5968497808248 | 0.403150219175239 |
37 | 33 | 32.3548017515907 | 0.645198248409274 |
38 | 13 | 12.8444245603739 | 0.155575439626082 |
39 | 0 | 2.18794968435404 | -2.18794968435404 |
40 | 25 | 25.174433175096 | -0.174433175096001 |
41 | 29 | 28.8918376034232 | 0.108162396576836 |
42 | 22 | 22.0868260200892 | -0.0868260200891926 |
43 | 18 | 18.2686093376018 | -0.268609337601757 |
44 | 17 | 17.5296000678684 | -0.529600067868443 |
45 | 20 | 20.3328639948932 | -0.332863994893188 |
46 | 15 | 15.634898291154 | -0.634898291154 |
47 | 20 | 20.3458358671561 | -0.345835867156141 |
48 | 33 | 32.5430125446762 | 0.456987455323809 |
49 | 29 | 28.6121314784000 | 0.38786852159997 |
50 | 23 | 23.2818153482682 | -0.281815348268219 |
51 | 26 | 25.8615682049042 | 0.138431795095829 |
52 | 18 | 18.4186711187687 | -0.418671118768677 |
53 | 20 | 20.1016957485837 | -0.101695748583711 |
54 | 11 | 11.4706891159079 | -0.470689115907916 |
55 | 28 | 28.1707423952679 | -0.170742395267928 |
56 | 26 | 25.9896142003860 | 0.0103857996140351 |
57 | 22 | 22.1695069951440 | -0.169506995144028 |
58 | 17 | 17.5343728156567 | -0.53437281565669 |
59 | 12 | 12.5319259276469 | -0.531925927646852 |
60 | 14 | 14.7123555505507 | -0.712355550550712 |
61 | 17 | 17.5107009711061 | -0.510700971106106 |
62 | 21 | 20.3380927470690 | 0.661907252931047 |
63 | 0 | -5.25108566558226 | 5.25108566558226 |
64 | 18 | 18.4794330488443 | -0.479433048844261 |
65 | 10 | 10.9799755833075 | -0.979975583307488 |
66 | 29 | 28.7346391115354 | 0.265360888464633 |
67 | 31 | 30.3255764596980 | 0.67442354030197 |
68 | 19 | 19.4438616524450 | -0.443861652445022 |
69 | 9 | 9.12373445468246 | -0.123734454682459 |
70 | 0 | -0.372268938781072 | 0.372268938781072 |
71 | 28 | 27.5383401714152 | 0.461659828584786 |
72 | 19 | 19.2588847154214 | -0.258884715421411 |
73 | 30 | 29.6367145656765 | 0.363285434323499 |
74 | 29 | 28.8976785788225 | 0.102321421177499 |
75 | 26 | 25.8271010602228 | 0.172898939777158 |
76 | 23 | 23.0101476516417 | -0.0101476516417497 |
77 | 13 | 13.869782539103 | -0.869782539102996 |
78 | 21 | 21.3603289070511 | -0.360328907051057 |
79 | 19 | 19.3574021941919 | -0.357402194191937 |
80 | 28 | 27.7949920874708 | 0.205007912529240 |
81 | 23 | 22.3451927968144 | 0.654807203185622 |
82 | 0 | 0.446493779711898 | -0.446493779711898 |
83 | 21 | 21.1961576111266 | -0.196157611126643 |
84 | 20 | 19.4521857063232 | 0.54781429367675 |
85 | 0 | 7.2377156800752 | -7.2377156800752 |
86 | 21 | 21.2209489982356 | -0.220948998235552 |
87 | 21 | 21.296532797793 | -0.296532797792997 |
88 | 15 | 15.6989440017742 | -0.698944001774215 |
89 | 28 | 26.9753740420348 | 1.02462595796524 |
90 | 0 | -0.262612919822320 | 0.262612919822320 |
91 | 26 | 25.8540910907174 | 0.145908909282640 |
92 | 10 | 9.75667480922528 | 0.243325190774723 |
93 | 0 | 0.0342085643549303 | -0.0342085643549303 |
94 | 22 | 22.1776567768225 | -0.177656776822495 |
95 | 19 | 19.3236304946870 | -0.323630494687042 |
96 | 31 | 30.8519275928890 | 0.148072407111043 |
97 | 31 | 30.5939006437243 | 0.406099356275664 |
98 | 29 | 28.7494305950021 | 0.250569404997940 |
99 | 19 | 19.1361975269074 | -0.136197526907407 |
100 | 22 | 21.9978267604862 | 0.0021732395137644 |
101 | 23 | 23.0837356952992 | -0.083735695299185 |
102 | 15 | 15.3413957017525 | -0.341395701752489 |
103 | 20 | 20.2871768710127 | -0.287176871012682 |
104 | 18 | 18.4718631876671 | -0.471863187667068 |
105 | 23 | 22.0471579374471 | 0.952842062552895 |
106 | 0 | 5.73875916131579 | -5.73875916131579 |
107 | 21 | 20.8699276360379 | 0.130072363962143 |
108 | 24 | 23.8646329249258 | 0.135367075074196 |
109 | 25 | 24.0998567874755 | 0.90014321252454 |
110 | 0 | -1.85640375280187 | 1.85640375280187 |
111 | 13 | 13.5411151924826 | -0.541115192482634 |
112 | 28 | 27.5691937214214 | 0.430806278578555 |
113 | 21 | 20.1181711746810 | 0.881828825318965 |
114 | 0 | -7.15715228035647 | 7.15715228035647 |
115 | 9 | 10.0905632682401 | -1.09056326824013 |
116 | 16 | 16.3128204414968 | -0.312820441496799 |
117 | 19 | 19.2843924990371 | -0.284392499037124 |
118 | 17 | 17.4037431082757 | -0.40374310827568 |
119 | 25 | 24.901282449828 | 0.0987175501719828 |
120 | 20 | 19.9624893812134 | 0.0375106187865633 |
121 | 29 | 28.4688111245886 | 0.531188875411382 |
122 | 14 | 13.6033852267716 | 0.396614773228392 |
123 | 0 | -1.15007446225698 | 1.15007446225698 |
124 | 15 | 15.4353749719551 | -0.435374971955149 |
125 | 19 | 19.4786690485831 | -0.47866904858306 |
126 | 20 | 19.4012843437678 | 0.598715656232224 |
127 | 0 | -4.26985303011458 | 4.26985303011458 |
128 | 20 | 20.3485480195630 | -0.348548019562960 |
129 | 18 | 18.4452068883406 | -0.445206888340618 |
130 | 33 | 32.3939257377748 | 0.606074262225229 |
131 | 22 | 22.1911170315266 | -0.191117031526600 |
132 | 16 | 16.4309318311061 | -0.430931831106053 |
133 | 17 | 17.4128504707148 | -0.412850470714814 |
134 | 16 | 16.3094613074666 | -0.309461307466619 |
135 | 21 | 21.0292327307523 | -0.029232730752263 |
136 | 26 | 26.0715816303282 | -0.0715816303281501 |
137 | 18 | 18.2493848514483 | -0.249384851448318 |
138 | 18 | 18.4742408271431 | -0.474240827143106 |
139 | 17 | 17.2852117383983 | -0.285211738398310 |
140 | 22 | 22.1127894550919 | -0.11278945509194 |
141 | 30 | 28.6516116953374 | 1.34838830466263 |
142 | 0 | 2.92325184158514 | -2.92325184158514 |
143 | 24 | 24.3774196544525 | -0.377419654452538 |
144 | 21 | 21.1736848378696 | -0.173684837869617 |
145 | 21 | 21.4055415731769 | -0.405541573176936 |
146 | 29 | 28.7628679486231 | 0.237132051376895 |
147 | 31 | 29.5627692076597 | 1.43723079234029 |
148 | 0 | 0.431084021843932 | -0.431084021843932 |
149 | 16 | 16.2259330922225 | -0.225933092222503 |
150 | 22 | 22.0352239577883 | -0.0352239577882566 |
151 | 20 | 20.2570507908056 | -0.25705079080563 |
152 | 28 | 28.0166912573327 | -0.0166912573327332 |
153 | 38 | 37.0463235816684 | 0.953676418331649 |
154 | 22 | 21.966706215613 | 0.0332937843869862 |
155 | 20 | 20.466852129873 | -0.466852129872996 |
156 | 17 | 17.3828668619047 | -0.38286686190475 |
157 | 28 | 27.7818989790219 | 0.218101020978083 |
158 | 22 | 22.2097426131333 | -0.209742613133305 |
159 | 31 | 30.7372463017937 | 0.262753698206326 |
Goldfeld-Quandt test for Heteroskedasticity | |||
p-values | Alternative Hypothesis | ||
breakpoint index | greater | 2-sided | less |
15 | 0.931890324775149 | 0.136219350449703 | 0.0681096752248514 |
16 | 0.996805081921695 | 0.0063898361566105 | 0.00319491807830525 |
17 | 0.992876311439192 | 0.0142473771216161 | 0.00712368856080807 |
18 | 0.98538436754423 | 0.0292312649115383 | 0.0146156324557692 |
19 | 0.983095289663174 | 0.0338094206736516 | 0.0169047103368258 |
20 | 0.97085633205466 | 0.0582873358906794 | 0.0291436679453397 |
21 | 0.963207522126936 | 0.0735849557461287 | 0.0367924778730644 |
22 | 0.94214960177313 | 0.115700796453739 | 0.0578503982268694 |
23 | 0.9127322853819 | 0.174535429236199 | 0.0872677146180996 |
24 | 0.965010013242332 | 0.0699799735153369 | 0.0349899867576685 |
25 | 0.94760064853572 | 0.104798702928559 | 0.0523993514642797 |
26 | 0.924726268691788 | 0.150547462616425 | 0.0752737313082124 |
27 | 0.895200219936097 | 0.209599560127806 | 0.104799780063903 |
28 | 0.858080979736361 | 0.283838040527277 | 0.141919020263639 |
29 | 0.813311838739206 | 0.373376322521589 | 0.186688161260794 |
30 | 0.7697783746988 | 0.460443250602399 | 0.230221625301199 |
31 | 0.762113147402687 | 0.475773705194627 | 0.237886852597313 |
32 | 0.722634649881769 | 0.554730700236463 | 0.277365350118231 |
33 | 0.663850487204168 | 0.672299025591664 | 0.336149512795832 |
34 | 0.620709085408403 | 0.758581829183194 | 0.379290914591597 |
35 | 0.560556487990136 | 0.878887024019728 | 0.439443512009864 |
36 | 0.513812575763877 | 0.972374848472245 | 0.486187424236123 |
37 | 0.470394142827472 | 0.940788285654945 | 0.529605857172528 |
38 | 0.413657578173338 | 0.827315156346676 | 0.586342421826662 |
39 | 0.598974369708297 | 0.802051260583405 | 0.401025630291703 |
40 | 0.554492920001728 | 0.891014159996544 | 0.445507079998272 |
41 | 0.495662276774656 | 0.991324553549312 | 0.504337723225344 |
42 | 0.439305588742755 | 0.87861117748551 | 0.560694411257245 |
43 | 0.385478527406998 | 0.770957054813996 | 0.614521472593002 |
44 | 0.336057625432369 | 0.672115250864738 | 0.663942374567631 |
45 | 0.287567283519701 | 0.575134567039403 | 0.712432716480299 |
46 | 0.242217504440564 | 0.484435008881128 | 0.757782495559436 |
47 | 0.201131976603976 | 0.402263953207952 | 0.798868023396024 |
48 | 0.167170787342452 | 0.334341574684905 | 0.832829212657548 |
49 | 0.136007451573175 | 0.272014903146351 | 0.863992548426824 |
50 | 0.110051711244626 | 0.220103422489251 | 0.889948288755374 |
51 | 0.0863358334372096 | 0.172671666874419 | 0.91366416656279 |
52 | 0.0676583074721739 | 0.135316614944348 | 0.932341692527826 |
53 | 0.0529175410391086 | 0.105835082078217 | 0.947082458960891 |
54 | 0.0398030850049655 | 0.079606170009931 | 0.960196914995035 |
55 | 0.0304749236788772 | 0.0609498473577544 | 0.969525076321123 |
56 | 0.0224820192074422 | 0.0449640384148845 | 0.977517980792558 |
57 | 0.0161687035770383 | 0.0323374071540765 | 0.983831296422962 |
58 | 0.0117099067954447 | 0.0234198135908894 | 0.988290093204555 |
59 | 0.00829445004929892 | 0.0165889000985978 | 0.991705549950701 |
60 | 0.0059932375457984 | 0.0119864750915968 | 0.994006762454202 |
61 | 0.00411199622777575 | 0.0082239924555515 | 0.995888003772224 |
62 | 0.00440994293701509 | 0.00881988587403018 | 0.995590057062985 |
63 | 0.0113828213699662 | 0.0227656427399324 | 0.988617178630034 |
64 | 0.00806512535221193 | 0.0161302507044239 | 0.991934874647788 |
65 | 0.00598443901853502 | 0.0119688780370700 | 0.994015560981465 |
66 | 0.00420360259308469 | 0.00840720518616938 | 0.995796397406915 |
67 | 0.00307682744066801 | 0.00615365488133603 | 0.996923172559332 |
68 | 0.00210039581852808 | 0.00420079163705617 | 0.997899604181472 |
69 | 0.00184308630197776 | 0.00368617260395552 | 0.998156913698022 |
70 | 0.0857341924375413 | 0.171468384875083 | 0.914265807562459 |
71 | 0.0704593620542171 | 0.140918724108434 | 0.929540637945783 |
72 | 0.055587751999065 | 0.11117550399813 | 0.944412248000935 |
73 | 0.0434785609220866 | 0.0869571218441731 | 0.956521439077913 |
74 | 0.0332179696396098 | 0.0664359392792195 | 0.96678203036039 |
75 | 0.0251676357556353 | 0.0503352715112706 | 0.974832364244365 |
76 | 0.0188414936432232 | 0.0376829872864463 | 0.981158506356777 |
77 | 0.0153803488780306 | 0.0307606977560612 | 0.98461965112197 |
78 | 0.0115565990717313 | 0.0231131981434626 | 0.988443400928269 |
79 | 0.00836004005565288 | 0.0167200801113058 | 0.991639959944347 |
80 | 0.00600073094336713 | 0.0120014618867343 | 0.993999269056633 |
81 | 0.00569693894172114 | 0.0113938778834423 | 0.994303061058279 |
82 | 0.019309506887842 | 0.038619013775684 | 0.980690493112158 |
83 | 0.0143201485575349 | 0.0286402971150698 | 0.985679851442465 |
84 | 0.0133472797826577 | 0.0266945595653153 | 0.986652720217342 |
85 | 0.969588942760994 | 0.0608221144780117 | 0.0304110572390058 |
86 | 0.9605088840681 | 0.0789822318638016 | 0.0394911159319008 |
87 | 0.951200002698601 | 0.097599994602797 | 0.0487999973013985 |
88 | 0.939805350546437 | 0.120389298907126 | 0.060194649453563 |
89 | 0.927099247634885 | 0.14580150473023 | 0.072900752365115 |
90 | 0.935662044259217 | 0.128675911481566 | 0.064337955740783 |
91 | 0.91865226035956 | 0.162695479280880 | 0.0813477396404401 |
92 | 0.903973950830475 | 0.192052098339049 | 0.0960260491695245 |
93 | 0.925192040220129 | 0.149615919559742 | 0.0748079597798712 |
94 | 0.909344025117669 | 0.181311949764663 | 0.0906559748823313 |
95 | 0.88845986458147 | 0.223080270837061 | 0.111540135418531 |
96 | 0.862500288799537 | 0.274999422400926 | 0.137499711200463 |
97 | 0.833935874719888 | 0.332128250560223 | 0.166064125280112 |
98 | 0.801463296405597 | 0.397073407188807 | 0.198536703594403 |
99 | 0.764136060724027 | 0.471727878551947 | 0.235863939275974 |
100 | 0.722561571165965 | 0.55487685766807 | 0.277438428834035 |
101 | 0.677870534591829 | 0.644258930816342 | 0.322129465408171 |
102 | 0.633106556527083 | 0.733786886945834 | 0.366893443472917 |
103 | 0.584624927846848 | 0.830750144306303 | 0.415375072153152 |
104 | 0.549708908710682 | 0.900582182578636 | 0.450291091289318 |
105 | 0.509341852295823 | 0.981316295408355 | 0.490658147704177 |
106 | 0.999533615326094 | 0.000932769347812684 | 0.000466384673906342 |
107 | 0.999336540552618 | 0.00132691889476335 | 0.000663459447381676 |
108 | 0.998921075126882 | 0.00215784974623607 | 0.00107892487311803 |
109 | 0.998317423490455 | 0.0033651530190893 | 0.00168257650954465 |
110 | 0.999676731032704 | 0.000646537934592852 | 0.000323268967296426 |
111 | 0.999455626054085 | 0.0010887478918291 | 0.00054437394591455 |
112 | 0.999142714328052 | 0.00171457134389647 | 0.000857285671948233 |
113 | 0.998775299868178 | 0.00244940026364421 | 0.00122470013182210 |
114 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
115 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
116 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
117 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
118 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
119 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
120 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
121 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
122 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
123 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
124 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
125 | 1 | 4.25610936260445e-304 | 2.12805468130223e-304 |
126 | 1 | 4.84385149583064e-294 | 2.42192574791532e-294 |
127 | 1 | 8.7512927611759e-278 | 4.37564638058795e-278 |
128 | 1 | 5.65416621894546e-263 | 2.82708310947273e-263 |
129 | 1 | 2.30484563619042e-245 | 1.15242281809521e-245 |
130 | 1 | 3.05972870069150e-230 | 1.52986435034575e-230 |
131 | 1 | 1.32410842359731e-223 | 6.62054211798654e-224 |
132 | 1 | 3.79293484597089e-209 | 1.89646742298545e-209 |
133 | 1 | 8.4189297430175e-195 | 4.20946487150875e-195 |
134 | 1 | 1.01646719401544e-182 | 5.08233597007721e-183 |
135 | 1 | 5.71862489918074e-168 | 2.85931244959037e-168 |
136 | 1 | 2.35328575929728e-154 | 1.17664287964864e-154 |
137 | 1 | 4.30226771089198e-142 | 2.15113385544599e-142 |
138 | 1 | 9.92764614521413e-126 | 4.96382307260707e-126 |
139 | 1 | 1.06614260278708e-112 | 5.33071301393539e-113 |
140 | 1 | 1.9543900810254e-97 | 9.771950405127e-98 |
141 | 1 | 7.62792043350856e-82 | 3.81396021675428e-82 |
142 | 1 | 2.03877361448461e-73 | 1.01938680724230e-73 |
143 | 1 | 5.91295474588529e-59 | 2.95647737294264e-59 |
144 | 1 | 2.51294829863939e-45 | 1.25647414931970e-45 |
Meta Analysis of Goldfeld-Quandt test for Heteroskedasticity | |||
Description | # significant tests | % significant tests | OK/NOK |
1% type I error level | 46 | 0.353846153846154 | NOK |
5% type I error level | 66 | 0.507692307692308 | NOK |
10% type I error level | 77 | 0.592307692307692 | NOK |