Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
Parameter | Value |
alpha | 0.567263099764302 |
beta | FALSE |
gamma | FALSE |
Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
2 | 39690 | 41086 | -1396 |
3 | 43129 | 40294.100712729 | 2834.89928727096 |
4 | 37863 | 41902.234469946 | -4039.23446994597 |
5 | 35953 | 39610.9258038496 | -3657.92580384960 |
6 | 29133 | 37535.9194736501 | -8402.91947365005 |
7 | 24693 | 32769.2533259575 | -8076.2533259575 |
8 | 22205 | 28187.8928297931 | -5982.8928297931 |
9 | 21725 | 24794.0184976070 | -3069.01849760705 |
10 | 27192 | 23053.0775514205 | 4138.92244857951 |
11 | 21790 | 25400.9355292858 | -3610.93552928576 |
12 | 13253 | 23352.5850478941 | -10099.5850478941 |
13 | 37702 | 17623.4631272925 | 20078.5368727075 |
14 | 30364 | 29013.2761924364 | 1350.72380756362 |
15 | 32609 | 29779.4919664404 | 2829.50803355964 |
16 | 30212 | 31384.5674643654 | -1172.56746436539 |
17 | 29965 | 30719.4132098467 | -754.413209846713 |
18 | 28352 | 30291.4624339259 | -1939.46243392593 |
19 | 25814 | 29191.2769617807 | -3377.27696178069 |
20 | 22414 | 27275.4723636784 | -4861.47236367841 |
21 | 20506 | 24517.7384812397 | -4011.73848123971 |
22 | 28806 | 22242.0272749279 | 6563.97272507206 |
23 | 22228 | 25965.5267897207 | -3737.52678972065 |
24 | 13971 | 23845.3657575316 | -9874.3657575316 |
25 | 36845 | 18244.0024297077 | 18600.9975702923 |
26 | 35338 | 28795.66197014 | 6542.33802986002 |
27 | 35022 | 32506.8889206642 | 2515.11107933575 |
28 | 34777 | 33933.6186277798 | 843.38137222021 |
29 | 26887 | 34412.0377592689 | -7525.0377592689 |
30 | 23970 | 30143.3615141026 | -6173.3615141026 |
31 | 22780 | 26641.4413256471 | -3861.44132564712 |
32 | 17351 | 24450.9881497026 | -7099.98814970256 |
33 | 21382 | 20423.4268636125 | 958.573136387527 |
34 | 24561 | 20967.1900323104 | 3593.80996768955 |
35 | 17409 | 23005.8258145459 | -5596.82581454587 |
36 | 11514 | 19830.9530541457 | -8316.95305414572 |
37 | 31514 | 15113.0524840568 | 16400.9475159432 |
38 | 27071 | 24416.7048110224 | 2654.29518897762 |
39 | 29462 | 25922.3885276113 | 3539.6114723887 |
40 | 26105 | 27930.2795033998 | -1825.27950339980 |
41 | 22397 | 26894.865794365 | -4497.86579436498 |
42 | 23843 | 24343.3925015297 | -500.392501529677 |
43 | 21705 | 24059.5383000131 | -2354.53830001314 |
44 | 18089 | 22723.8956054339 | -4634.89560543392 |
45 | 20764 | 20094.6903572115 | 669.309642788467 |
46 | 25316 | 20474.3650198819 | 4841.63498011814 |
47 | 17704 | 23220.8458866309 | -5516.84588663095 |
48 | 15548 | 20091.3427880587 | -4543.34278805874 |
49 | 28029 | 17514.0720748128 | 10514.9279251872 |
50 | 29383 | 23478.8026834527 | 5904.19731654731 |
51 | 36438 | 26828.0359548574 | 9609.9640451426 |
52 | 32034 | 32279.4139477285 | -245.413947728477 |
53 | 22679 | 32140.1996710146 | -9461.19967101463 |
54 | 24319 | 26773.2102181459 | -2454.21021814588 |
55 | 18004 | 25381.0273223272 | -7377.02732232722 |
56 | 17537 | 21196.3119364179 | -3659.31193641793 |
57 | 20366 | 19120.519304361 | 1245.48069563901 |
58 | 22782 | 19827.0345444658 | 2954.96545553423 |
59 | 19169 | 21503.2774084686 | -2334.27740846855 |
60 | 13807 | 20179.1279700309 | -6372.1279700309 |
61 | 29743 | 16564.4549056564 | 13178.5450943436 |
62 | 25591 | 24040.1572462574 | 1550.84275374263 |
63 | 29096 | 24919.8931139924 | 4176.10688600758 |
64 | 26482 | 27288.8444510961 | -806.844451096127 |
65 | 22405 | 26831.1513667397 | -4426.15136673971 |
66 | 27044 | 24320.3590224169 | 2723.64097758306 |
67 | 17970 | 25865.3800460058 | -7895.38004600578 |
68 | 18730 | 21386.6222872913 | -2656.62228729132 |
69 | 19684 | 19879.6184936995 | -195.618493699516 |
70 | 19785 | 19768.6513405923 | 16.3486594076967 |
71 | 18479 | 19777.9253318049 | -1298.92533180490 |
72 | 10698 | 19041.0929217229 | -8343.09292172288 |
Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
73 | 14308.3641693248 | 1802.46543534106 | 26814.2629033084 |
74 | 14308.3641693248 | -69.5443314622153 | 28686.2726701117 |
75 | 14308.3641693248 | -1724.44602007590 | 30341.1743587254 |
76 | 14308.3641693248 | -3223.82771536828 | 31840.5560540178 |
77 | 14308.3641693248 | -4604.71336961754 | 33221.4417082670 |
78 | 14308.3641693248 | -5891.41928759356 | 34508.1476262431 |
79 | 14308.3641693248 | -7100.93290971868 | 35717.6612483682 |
80 | 14308.3641693248 | -8245.67651369 | 36862.4048523395 |
81 | 14308.3641693248 | -9335.05988142204 | 37951.7882200715 |
82 | 14308.3641693248 | -10376.4135399393 | 38993.1418785888 |
83 | 14308.3641693248 | -11375.5802370184 | 39992.3085756679 |
84 | 14308.3641693248 | -12337.3062103162 | 40954.0345489657 |