| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 1 |
| beta | 0.109263095532174 |
| gamma | FALSE |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 3 | 22440 | 22200 | 240 |
| 4 | 22910 | 22016.2231429277 | 893.776857072276 |
| 5 | 22980 | 22583.8799690465 | 396.120030953542 |
| 6 | 22535 | 22697.1612698307 | -162.16126983074 |
| 7 | 22300 | 22234.4430275136 | 65.5569724863926 |
| 8 | 22780 | 22006.6059852612 | 773.394014738813 |
| 9 | 22780 | 22571.1094093776 | 208.890590622395 |
| 10 | 23300 | 22593.9334419366 | 706.066558063445 |
| 11 | 23800 | 23191.0804597223 | 608.919540277686 |
| 12 | 24510 | 23757.6128936231 | 752.387106376918 |
| 13 | 24660 | 24549.8210379043 | 110.178962095681 |
| 14 | 24730 | 24711.8595323654 | 18.1404676345846 |
| 15 | 25070 | 24783.8416160136 | 286.158383986429 |
| 16 | 24690 | 25155.1081668604 | -465.108166860413 |
| 17 | 24880 | 24724.2890087919 | 155.710991208052 |
| 18 | 23920 | 24931.3024736997 | -1011.30247369972 |
| 19 | 23880 | 23860.8044349039 | 19.1955650960517 |
| 20 | 23990 | 23822.9018017668 | 167.098198233169 |
| 21 | 24590 | 23951.1594681636 | 638.840531836366 |
| 22 | 23610 | 24620.9611622235 | -1010.96116222350 |
| 23 | 23580 | 23530.5004161762 | 49.4995838238465 |
| 24 | 23360 | 23505.9088939323 | -145.908893932301 |
| 25 | 23910 | 23269.9664365156 | 640.033563484416 |
| 26 | 23940 | 23889.8984849064 | 50.1015150936219 |
| 27 | 23060 | 23925.3727315364 | -865.372731536361 |
| 28 | 22800 | 22950.8194280996 | -150.819428099563 |
| 29 | 23020 | 22674.340430519 | 345.659569480988 |
| 30 | 22890 | 22932.1082650808 | -42.1082650808239 |
| 31 | 22780 | 22797.5073856906 | -17.5073856906056 |
| 32 | 22530 | 22685.5944745354 | -155.594474535374 |
| 33 | 22290 | 22418.5937405999 | -128.593740599936 |
| 34 | 22820 | 22164.5431904359 | 655.456809564075 |
| 35 | 22480 | 22766.1604304365 | -286.160430436539 |
| 36 | 22110 | 22394.8936559882 | -284.893655988224 |
| 37 | 22000 | 21993.7652932375 | 6.23470676252691 |
| 38 | 22230 | 21884.4465165981 | 345.55348340192 |
| 39 | 22260 | 22152.2027598665 | 107.797240133499 |
| 40 | 22590 | 22193.9810200133 | 396.018979986689 |
| 41 | 22820 | 22567.2512796562 | 252.748720343847 |
| 42 | 22420 | 22824.8673872327 | -404.867387232716 |
| 43 | 22230 | 22380.6303232236 | -150.630323223646 |
| 44 | 21600 | 22174.1719878272 | -574.17198782722 |
| 45 | 21000 | 21481.4361790694 | -481.436179069355 |
| 46 | 21360 | 20828.8329718431 | 531.167028156946 |
| 47 | 21640 | 21246.8699255841 | 393.130074415891 |
| 48 | 21450 | 21569.8245344616 | -119.824534461583 |
| 49 | 21710 | 21366.7321349056 | 343.267865094393 |
| 50 | 21620 | 21664.2386444425 | -44.2386444425429 |
| 51 | 21800 | 21569.4049932086 | 230.595006791398 |
| 52 | 21490 | 21774.6005174649 | -284.600517464893 |
| 53 | 21670 | 21433.5041839366 | 236.495816063380 |
| 54 | 22130 | 21639.3444488801 | 490.655551119886 |
| 55 | 22050 | 22152.9549932355 | -102.954993235518 |
| 56 | 22050 | 22061.7058119741 | -11.7058119741123 |
| 57 | 22140 | 22060.4267987221 | 79.5732012778972 |
| 58 | 22390 | 22159.1212130151 | 230.878786984871 |
| 59 | 22220 | 22434.3477439738 | -214.347743973809 |
| 60 | 21790 | 22240.9274459469 | -450.927445946894 |
| 61 | 21510 | 21761.6577173423 | -251.657717342317 |
| 62 | 21670 | 21454.1608161309 | 215.839183869062 |
| 63 | 21745 | 21637.7440734976 | 107.255926502392 |
| 64 | 21850 | 21724.4631880414 | 125.536811958569 |
| 65 | 22105 | 21843.1797287193 | 261.820271280736 |
| 66 | 22050 | 22126.7870220325 | -76.787022032473 |
| 67 | 21670 | 22063.3970343085 | -393.397034308506 |
| 68 | 21680 | 21640.4132565668 | 39.5867434332176 |
| 69 | 21800 | 21654.7386266963 | 145.261373303667 |
| 70 | 21920 | 21790.6103340047 | 129.389665995252 |
| 71 | 21980 | 21924.7478494413 | 55.2521505587392 |
| 72 | 22270 | 21990.7848704461 | 279.215129553879 |
| 73 | 21740 | 22311.2927798206 | -571.292779820593 |
| 74 | 21950 | 21718.8715622422 | 231.128437757787 |
| 75 | 22010 | 21954.1253708171 | 55.8746291828538 |
| 76 | 21890 | 22020.2304057634 | -130.230405763377 |
| 77 | 21920 | 21886.0010284973 | 33.9989715027405 |
| 78 | 22110 | 21919.7158613686 | 190.284138631439 |
| 79 | 22340 | 22130.5068953861 | 209.493104613895 |
| 80 | 22210 | 22383.3967604889 | -173.396760488864 |
| 81 | 22240 | 22234.4508936826 | 5.54910631740131 |
| 82 | 21960 | 22265.0572062163 | -305.057206216276 |
| 83 | 22220 | 21951.7257115507 | 268.274288449313 |
| 84 | 22060 | 22241.0381907584 | -181.038190758351 |
| 85 | 22090 | 22061.2573976265 | 28.7426023734515 |
| 86 | 21960 | 22094.3979033355 | -134.397903335524 |
| 87 | 21940 | 21949.7131723841 | -9.71317238405027 |
| 88 | 21790 | 21928.6518811019 | -138.651881101930 |
| 89 | 21710 | 21763.5023473714 | -53.5023473713736 |
| 90 | 21690 | 21677.6565152793 | 12.3434847206590 |
| 91 | 21710 | 21659.0052026296 | 50.9947973704257 |
| 92 | 21670 | 21684.5770520463 | -14.5770520463047 |
| 93 | 21640 | 21642.984318216 | -2.98431821598933 |
| 94 | 21500 | 21612.6582423697 | -112.65824236966 |
| 95 | 21290 | 21460.3488540711 | -170.348854071137 |
| 96 | 21250 | 21231.7360109550 | 18.2639890450373 |
| 97 | 21580 | 21193.7315909348 | 386.268409065211 |
| 98 | 21670 | 21565.9364730155 | 104.063526984457 |
| 99 | 21620 | 21667.3067761059 | -47.3067761058628 |
| 100 | 21510 | 21612.1378913089 | -102.137891308888 |
| 101 | 21360 | 21490.9779891333 | -130.977989133349 |
| 102 | 21420 | 21326.6669285941 | 93.3330714059412 |
| 103 | 21470 | 21396.8647888914 | 73.1352111086017 |
| 104 | 21370 | 21454.8557684495 | -84.8557684495245 |
| 105 | 21370 | 21345.5841645150 | 24.4158354850333 |
| 106 | 21340 | 21348.2519142801 | -8.25191428006656 |
| 107 | 21130 | 21317.3502845818 | -187.350284581760 |
| 108 | 21130 | 21086.8798125395 | 43.1201874604776 |
| 109 | 20990 | 21091.5912577014 | -101.591257701384 |
| 110 | 21240 | 20940.4910824059 | 299.508917594078 |
| 111 | 21320 | 21223.2163538817 | 96.783646118256 |
| 112 | 21430 | 21313.7912346535 | 116.208765346488 |
| 113 | 21390 | 21436.4885640832 | -46.4885640832435 |
| 114 | 21530 | 21391.4090796647 | 138.590920335337 |
| 115 | 21510 | 21546.5519526332 | -36.5519526331555 |
| 116 | 21630 | 21522.5581731407 | 107.441826859289 |
| 117 | 21560 | 21654.297599733 | -94.2975997329886 |
| 118 | 21610 | 21573.9943520849 | 36.0056479150917 |
| 119 | 21560 | 21627.9284406328 | -67.9284406327533 |
| 120 | 21310 | 21570.5063689345 | -260.506368934544 |
| 121 | 21340 | 21292.0426366589 | 47.957363341091 |
| 122 | 21410 | 21327.2826066311 | 82.7173933688828 |
| 123 | 21550 | 21406.3205650850 | 143.679434915044 |
| 124 | 21380 | 21562.0194249081 | -182.019424908085 |
| 125 | 21600 | 21372.1314190956 | 227.868580904356 |
| 126 | 21530 | 21617.0290456198 | -87.0290456197763 |
| 127 | 21560 | 21537.5199826941 | 22.4800173058502 |
| 128 | 21670 | 21569.9762189726 | 100.023781027397 |
| 129 | 21540 | 21690.9051269145 | -150.905126914487 |
| 130 | 21540 | 21544.4167656161 | -4.41676561613713 |
| 131 | 21550 | 21543.9341761327 | 6.06582386732407 |
| 132 | 21590 | 21554.5969468254 | 35.4030531746248 |
| 133 | 21420 | 21598.4651940065 | -178.465194006523 |
| 134 | 21420 | 21408.9655344646 | 11.0344655353801 |
| 135 | 21370 | 21410.1711943266 | -40.1711943265582 |
| 136 | 21380 | 21355.7819652832 | 24.2180347167850 |
| 137 | 21210 | 21368.4281027241 | -158.428102724076 |
| 138 | 21505 | 21181.1177578012 | 323.882242198844 |
| 139 | 21365 | 21511.5061341717 | -146.506134171701 |
| 140 | 21385 | 21355.4984204376 | 29.5015795623513 |
| 141 | 21350 | 21378.7218543437 | -28.7218543437193 |
| 142 | 21360 | 21340.5836156287 | 19.4163843712995 |
| 143 | 21530 | 21352.7051098892 | 177.294890110847 |
| 144 | 21380 | 21542.0768984047 | -162.076898404699 |
| 145 | 21630 | 21374.3678747707 | 255.632125229251 |
| 146 | 22145 | 21652.2990320908 | 492.700967909233 |
| 147 | 22315 | 22221.1330650162 | 93.8669349837728 |
| 148 | 22340 | 22401.3892569007 | -61.3892569006712 |
| 149 | 22440 | 22419.6816766593 | 20.3183233407144 |
| 150 | 22135 | 22521.9017195635 | -386.901719563513 |
| 151 | 21955 | 22174.6276400173 | -219.627640017283 |
| 152 | 22060 | 21970.6304442046 | 89.3695557954306 |
| 153 | 22050 | 22085.3952385171 | -35.3952385171142 |
| 154 | 22035 | 22071.5278451896 | -36.5278451896338 |
| 155 | 22280 | 22052.5366997511 | 227.463300248906 |
| 156 | 22315 | 22322.3900440563 | -7.39004405625383 |
| 157 | 22205 | 22356.5825849665 | -151.582584966549 |
| 158 | 21970 | 22230.0202025043 | -260.020202504336 |
| 159 | 22075 | 21966.6095902778 | 108.390409722193 |
| 160 | 22115 | 22083.4526619701 | 31.5473380299445 |
| 161 | 22105 | 22126.899621779 | -21.8996217790082 |
| 162 | 21885 | 22114.5068013124 | -229.506801312447 |
| 163 | 21805 | 21869.4301777554 | -64.4301777553628 |
| 164 | 21910 | 21782.3903370881 | 127.609662911877 |
| 165 | 21995 | 21901.3333638777 | 93.666636122307 |
| 166 | 22245 | 21996.5676704885 | 248.432329511499 |
| 167 | 22100 | 22273.7121558412 | -173.712155841196 |
| 168 | 22130 | 22109.7318279624 | 20.2681720375804 |
| 169 | 22300 | 22141.9463911800 | 158.053608819973 |
| 170 | 22915 | 22329.2158177397 | 585.784182260271 |
| 171 | 23040 | 23008.2204108073 | 31.7795891927308 |
| 172 | 22880 | 23136.6927470972 | -256.692747097208 |
| 173 | 23000 | 22948.6457029487 | 51.3542970512899 |
| 174 | 23160 | 23074.2568324134 | 85.7431675865882 |
| 175 | 23020 | 23243.6253963247 | -223.625396324656 |
| 176 | 22770 | 23079.1913932826 | -309.191393282614 |
| 177 | 22660 | 22795.4081845407 | -135.408184540651 |
| 178 | 22740 | 22670.6130671373 | 69.3869328626533 |
| 179 | 22905 | 22758.1944982114 | 146.805501788596 |
| 180 | 22720 | 22939.2349217780 | -219.234921777981 |
| 181 | 22705 | 22730.2806355758 | -25.2806355757639 |
| 182 | 22735 | 22712.5183950757 | 22.4816049242654 |
| 183 | 22600 | 22744.9748048223 | -144.97480482229 |
| 184 | 22510 | 22594.1344088732 | -84.1344088732367 |
| 185 | 22560 | 22494.9416229190 | 65.0583770810226 |
| 186 | 22575 | 22552.0501025891 | 22.9498974108537 |
| 187 | 22685 | 22569.5576794224 | 115.442320577597 |
| 188 | 22980 | 22692.1712647241 | 287.828735275871 |
| 189 | 23275 | 23018.6203233235 | 256.379676676519 |
| 190 | 23845 | 23341.6331604287 | 503.366839571303 |
| 191 | 23640 | 23966.6325795085 | -326.632579508503 |
| 192 | 23640 | 23725.9436927697 | -85.9436927697461 |
| 193 | 23835 | 23716.5532188563 | 118.446781143743 |
| 194 | 23625 | 23924.4950808198 | -299.495080819845 |
| 195 | 24055 | 23681.7713211928 | 373.228678807191 |
| 196 | 24005 | 24152.5514419807 | -147.551441980668 |
| 197 | 24325 | 24086.4295146796 | 238.570485320375 |
| 198 | 24445 | 24432.4964644083 | 12.5035355916589 |
| 199 | 24670 | 24553.8626394122 | 116.137360587818 |
| 200 | 24615 | 24791.5521669369 | -176.552166936945 |
| 201 | 24700 | 24717.2615306545 | -17.2615306545013 |
| 202 | 25065 | 24800.3754823816 | 264.624517618435 |
| 203 | 25185 | 25194.2891763303 | -9.28917633026504 |
| 204 | 25220 | 25313.2742121695 | -93.2742121694755 |
| 205 | 25235 | 25338.0827830145 | -103.082783014514 |
| 206 | 24975 | 25341.8196390463 | -366.819639046276 |
| 207 | 25055 | 25041.7397897821 | 13.2602102179153 |
| 208 | 25520 | 25123.1886413979 | 396.811358602099 |
| 209 | 25880 | 25631.5454787811 | 248.454521218904 |
| 210 | 25960 | 26018.6923888684 | -58.692388868436 |
| 211 | 25740 | 26092.2794767765 | -352.279476776494 |
| 212 | 24965 | 25833.7883306514 | -868.788330651438 |
| 213 | 25235 | 24963.8618282822 | 271.138171717768 |
| 214 | 24895 | 25263.4872242410 | -368.487224241049 |
| 215 | 24635 | 24883.2251694564 | -248.225169456415 |
| 216 | 24835 | 24596.1033190526 | 238.896680947393 |
| 217 | 24635 | 24822.2059099253 | -187.205909925284 |
| 218 | 24695 | 24601.7512127049 | 93.2487872950733 |
| 219 | 25090 | 24671.9398638594 | 418.06013614059 |
| 220 | 25220 | 25112.6184084527 | 107.381591547266 |
| 221 | 24740 | 25254.3512535484 | -514.351253548357 |
| 222 | 25005 | 24718.1516433948 | 286.848356605191 |
| 223 | 24650 | 25014.4935827858 | -364.49358278581 |
| 224 | 24460 | 24619.667885629 | -159.66788562902 |
| 225 | 24680 | 24412.2220781881 | 267.777921811885 |
| 226 | 24840 | 24661.4803228405 | 178.519677159544 |
| 227 | 24630 | 24840.9859353803 | -210.985935380311 |
| 228 | 24490 | 24607.9329589669 | -117.932958966907 |
| 229 | 24695 | 24455.0472388049 | 239.952761195087 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 230 | 24686.2652202746 | 24140.8150035327 | 25231.7154370165 |
| 231 | 24677.5304405492 | 23862.9147187237 | 25492.1461623746 |
| 232 | 24668.7956608237 | 23617.4383244328 | 25720.1529972146 |
| 233 | 24660.0608810983 | 23383.3933028166 | 25936.7284593801 |
| 234 | 24651.3261013729 | 23153.2319497649 | 26149.4202529809 |
