| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.0739209572408732 |
| beta | 0.0457595802441608 |
| gamma | 0.330408735129191 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 13 | 3098 | 3043.75133958815 | 54.248660411848 |
| 14 | 2708 | 2676.14760474331 | 31.8523952566948 |
| 15 | 2517 | 2499.03150563822 | 17.968494361784 |
| 16 | 2445 | 2429.67297843909 | 15.3270215609109 |
| 17 | 2087 | 2052.48331231898 | 34.5166876810194 |
| 18 | 1801 | 1740.229682197 | 60.7703178030013 |
| 19 | 1216 | 1479.02638528787 | -263.026385287868 |
| 20 | 2173 | 2046.24268410856 | 126.757315891436 |
| 21 | 2286 | 2498.10879770803 | -212.108797708034 |
| 22 | 3121 | 2790.63405895328 | 330.365941046718 |
| 23 | 3458 | 3035.43251390506 | 422.56748609494 |
| 24 | 3511 | 2745.82958857622 | 765.170411423783 |
| 25 | 3524 | 3268.87831897298 | 255.121681027018 |
| 26 | 2767 | 2885.73433583387 | -118.734335833874 |
| 27 | 2744 | 2683.65008135413 | 60.3499186458675 |
| 28 | 2603 | 2614.73872898148 | -11.7387289814774 |
| 29 | 2527 | 2216.85245011382 | 310.147549886176 |
| 30 | 1846 | 1910.12665563092 | -64.1266556309245 |
| 31 | 1066 | 1512.13470404602 | -446.134704046022 |
| 32 | 2327 | 2238.36363532242 | 88.636364677583 |
| 33 | 3066 | 2610.05431782677 | 455.945682173229 |
| 34 | 3048 | 3166.8416959311 | -118.841695931104 |
| 35 | 3806 | 3430.05153765498 | 375.948462345018 |
| 36 | 4042 | 3222.6200002145 | 819.379999785502 |
| 37 | 3583 | 3622.01234825892 | -39.0123482589183 |
| 38 | 3438 | 3065.99529840135 | 372.004701598646 |
| 39 | 2957 | 2946.1970596661 | 10.8029403338951 |
| 40 | 2885 | 2846.34520494443 | 38.6547950555669 |
| 41 | 2744 | 2525.2917641732 | 218.708235826795 |
| 42 | 1837 | 2059.96935124306 | -222.969351243057 |
| 43 | 1447 | 1488.53965796715 | -41.5396579671487 |
| 44 | 2504 | 2510.41768909839 | -6.41768909838584 |
| 45 | 3248 | 3039.95282066349 | 208.047179336514 |
| 46 | 3098 | 3440.21107317002 | -342.211073170018 |
| 47 | 4318 | 3880.64978432776 | 437.35021567224 |
| 48 | 3561 | 3802.38664979137 | -241.386649791374 |
| 49 | 3316 | 3865.93410822792 | -549.934108227915 |
| 50 | 3379 | 3369.51064679066 | 9.48935320933651 |
| 51 | 2717 | 3096.84754101386 | -379.847541013864 |
| 52 | 2354 | 2969.45203176324 | -615.45203176324 |
| 53 | 2445 | 2643.90816159447 | -198.908161594466 |
| 54 | 1542 | 2002.43623879537 | -460.436238795372 |
| 55 | 1606 | 1466.69192742223 | 139.308072577772 |
| 56 | 2590 | 2509.86199499966 | 80.1380050003377 |
| 57 | 3588 | 3106.16889657423 | 481.831103425772 |
| 58 | 3202 | 3352.77704040259 | -150.777040402587 |
| 59 | 4704 | 4044.55265104991 | 659.447348950087 |
| 60 | 4005 | 3765.26463767186 | 239.735362328138 |
| 61 | 3810 | 3763.65058303625 | 46.3494169637484 |
| 62 | 3488 | 3471.66967622237 | 16.3303237776299 |
| 63 | 2781 | 3065.73113731036 | -284.731137310358 |
| 64 | 2944 | 2863.35170761191 | 80.648292388094 |
| 65 | 2817 | 2709.43587516602 | 107.564124833983 |
| 66 | 1960 | 1968.08867639479 | -8.0886763947949 |
| 67 | 1937 | 1626.66791923682 | 310.332080763182 |
| 68 | 2903 | 2755.36853261452 | 147.631467385484 |
| 69 | 3357 | 3546.86017041421 | -189.860170414209 |
| 70 | 3552 | 3554.69355056176 | -2.69355056176073 |
| 71 | 4581 | 4582.35179879189 | -1.35179879189491 |
| 72 | 3905 | 4097.16659814172 | -192.166598141725 |
| 73 | 4581 | 4000.65408916199 | 580.345910838008 |
| 74 | 4037 | 3720.09301337571 | 316.906986624292 |
| 75 | 3345 | 3208.18326799286 | 136.816732007139 |
| 76 | 3175 | 3146.52909511546 | 28.4709048845352 |
| 77 | 2808 | 2987.08280068018 | -179.082800680183 |
| 78 | 2050 | 2127.23032372058 | -77.2303237205765 |
| 79 | 1719 | 1858.74341484165 | -139.743414841654 |
| 80 | 3143 | 2966.90568577197 | 176.094314228026 |
| 81 | 3756 | 3697.44968667812 | 58.5503133218754 |
| 82 | 4776 | 3786.76089529729 | 989.239104702712 |
| 83 | 4540 | 4981.53083543739 | -441.530835437393 |
| 84 | 4309 | 4364.64607760225 | -55.6460776022477 |
| 85 | 4563 | 4528.985696435 | 34.0143035649944 |
| 86 | 3506 | 4098.53767225567 | -592.537672255672 |
| 87 | 3665 | 3430.0431700927 | 234.956829907297 |
| 88 | 3361 | 3335.59103266362 | 25.4089673363828 |
| 89 | 3094 | 3098.50112839995 | -4.50112839995199 |
| 90 | 2440 | 2232.42957136688 | 207.570428633124 |
| 91 | 1633 | 1946.07136552366 | -313.071365523663 |
| 92 | 2935 | 3216.87679167235 | -281.876791672346 |
| 93 | 4159 | 3912.437485424 | 246.562514576004 |
| 94 | 4159 | 4314.22352711335 | -155.223527113348 |
| 95 | 4894 | 5002.97302409231 | -108.973024092307 |
| 96 | 4921 | 4506.96988076895 | 414.030119231046 |
| 97 | 4577 | 4739.32609311007 | -162.326093110073 |
| 98 | 4155 | 4072.13353871192 | 82.8664612880757 |
| 99 | 3851 | 3685.92421974168 | 165.07578025832 |
| 100 | 3429 | 3512.22381455546 | -83.2238145554611 |
| 101 | 3370 | 3244.77846622642 | 125.22153377358 |
| 102 | 2726 | 2411.44519592482 | 314.554804075179 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 103 | 1947.58190806176 | 1726.60026838129 | 2168.56354774222 |
| 104 | 3337.57580194295 | 3103.66115244467 | 3571.49045144124 |
| 105 | 4282.25322354332 | 4032.08312618455 | 4532.42332090209 |
| 106 | 4562.61424411506 | 4302.00907671979 | 4823.21941151034 |
| 107 | 5331.33592189944 | 5049.29564316104 | 5613.37620063784 |
| 108 | 4980.99350540246 | 4699.38145406586 | 5262.60555673906 |
| 109 | 5009.49402399384 | 4720.0000381381 | 5298.98800984958 |
| 110 | 4389.90553887547 | 4108.79305144498 | 4671.01802630597 |
| 111 | 3998.2870441714 | 3720.50055246462 | 4276.07353587817 |
| 112 | 3719.66254320856 | 3442.82090306382 | 3996.5041833533 |
| 113 | 3509.41703288083 | 3232.09811092984 | 3786.73595483183 |
| 114 | 2672.44929115105 | 2536.40344186298 | 2808.49514043912 |
