| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.458431564192018 |
| beta | 0 |
| gamma | 0.181610953212879 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 13 | 182900 | 176965.155579880 | 5934.84442012027 |
| 14 | 191400 | 188445.349798312 | 2954.65020168756 |
| 15 | 189300 | 187997.306510601 | 1302.69348939907 |
| 16 | 192200 | 191306.444594224 | 893.555405775842 |
| 17 | 187900 | 186404.032890278 | 1495.96710972194 |
| 18 | 193900 | 191965.68801862 | 1934.31198137999 |
| 19 | 189100 | 192094.375243636 | -2994.37524363567 |
| 20 | 193100 | 198267.566327154 | -5167.56632715376 |
| 21 | 194800 | 192056.088728708 | 2743.91127129228 |
| 22 | 200200 | 193310.959446464 | 6889.04055353641 |
| 23 | 211500 | 192109.284489929 | 19390.7155100714 |
| 24 | 202100 | 206287.940775720 | -4187.9407757204 |
| 25 | 200300 | 204369.896168068 | -4069.89616806776 |
| 26 | 199200 | 211879.599998405 | -12679.5999984053 |
| 27 | 204900 | 203847.199872669 | 1052.80012733137 |
| 28 | 207300 | 207133.913531152 | 166.086468847760 |
| 29 | 2e+05 | 201451.743538031 | -1451.74353803066 |
| 30 | 197700 | 205983.873525062 | -8283.87352506205 |
| 31 | 202200 | 200833.002757067 | 1366.99724293308 |
| 32 | 200200 | 209147.760854121 | -8947.76085412118 |
| 33 | 208300 | 201776.102796220 | 6523.89720377969 |
| 34 | 215100 | 205122.714065893 | 9977.28593410732 |
| 35 | 210700 | 206211.987778346 | 4488.01222165412 |
| 36 | 208100 | 211286.821834192 | -3186.82183419238 |
| 37 | 209000 | 209806.216977001 | -806.216977001139 |
| 38 | 211000 | 218199.445553946 | -7199.44555394645 |
| 39 | 210200 | 213934.779083474 | -3734.77908347431 |
| 40 | 205500 | 215002.296545961 | -9502.29654596126 |
| 41 | 211400 | 204613.535989314 | 6786.46401068577 |
| 42 | 211700 | 212357.148924390 | -657.148924390378 |
| 43 | 209300 | 211574.596376989 | -2274.59637698889 |
| 44 | 207500 | 217435.390967366 | -9935.39096736582 |
| 45 | 203300 | 211003.170770206 | -7703.17077020579 |
| 46 | 207100 | 208142.069715966 | -1042.06971596589 |
| 47 | 206900 | 203707.827582774 | 3192.1724172261 |
| 48 | 228700 | 207410.803144618 | 21289.1968553815 |
| 49 | 226900 | 217354.899634915 | 9545.10036508532 |
| 50 | 265000 | 230270.869124007 | 34729.1308759932 |
| 51 | 227100 | 245313.692234208 | -18213.6922342077 |
| 52 | 228100 | 239290.855097122 | -11190.8550971222 |
| 53 | 226500 | 229081.595426891 | -2581.59542689088 |
| 54 | 225200 | 232065.152869932 | -6865.152869932 |
| 55 | 217800 | 228142.047851911 | -10342.0478519109 |
| 56 | 221300 | 229845.229287021 | -8545.22928702127 |
| 57 | 215300 | 224076.663401462 | -8776.6634014617 |
| 58 | 231300 | 221395.809843861 | 9904.19015613873 |
| 59 | 227100 | 221989.007231999 | 5110.99276800075 |
| 60 | 237800 | 228521.564834521 | 9278.43516547879 |
| 61 | 230200 | 231661.132096924 | -1461.13209692389 |
| 62 | 233400 | 242150.644114789 | -8750.64411478877 |
| 63 | 231100 | 232321.415878742 | -1221.41587874194 |
| 64 | 237200 | 234726.928633717 | 2473.07136628326 |
| 65 | 243700 | 231563.774266804 | 12136.2257331958 |
| 66 | 239700 | 240975.883431095 | -1275.88343109511 |
| 67 | 248400 | 239135.666356938 | 9264.33364306192 |
| 68 | 241000 | 250512.630073953 | -9512.63007395333 |
| 69 | 254500 | 243987.000816995 | 10512.9991830052 |
| 70 | 242800 | 252250.820802007 | -9450.82080200658 |
| 71 | 268300 | 242989.103899339 | 25310.8961006614 |
| 72 | 253900 | 259642.715979594 | -5742.71597959386 |
| 73 | 262100 | 254519.419234319 | 7580.5807656812 |
| 74 | 264100 | 269522.054232833 | -5422.05423283263 |
| 75 | 261000 | 261190.57480932 | -190.574809320009 |
| 76 | 269300 | 264719.276164265 | 4580.72383573541 |
| 77 | 260400 | 262870.43460679 | -2470.43460678984 |
| 78 | 263200 | 264412.595223461 | -1212.59522346064 |
| 79 | 279200 | 263496.920991561 | 15703.0790084389 |
| 80 | 272200 | 276416.950694722 | -4216.95069472247 |
| 81 | 269200 | 274117.190944808 | -4917.19094480819 |
| 82 | 289600 | 273363.620580620 | 16236.3794193803 |
| 83 | 283200 | 278818.008015629 | 4381.99198437115 |
| 84 | 284300 | 282904.150626815 | 1395.84937318455 |
| 85 | 283000 | 282118.236810350 | 881.763189650315 |
| 86 | 289100 | 293608.791797489 | -4508.79179748870 |
| 87 | 289600 | 285611.008200384 | 3988.99179961625 |
| 88 | 289100 | 291826.345180788 | -2726.34518078784 |
| 89 | 287400 | 285437.609176044 | 1962.39082395629 |
| 90 | 279600 | 289301.819961965 | -9701.81996196514 |
| 91 | 289300 | 286134.363994055 | 3165.63600594504 |
| 92 | 295000 | 291496.96899198 | 3503.03100801975 |
| 93 | 299600 | 292559.853277554 | 7040.14672244573 |
| 94 | 293600 | 299548.963460424 | -5948.96346042375 |
| 95 | 294400 | 293449.270544507 | 950.729455492808 |
| 96 | 290200 | 295701.405161618 | -5501.40516161849 |
| 97 | 301000 | 291618.665833493 | 9381.33416650724 |
| 98 | 307900 | 306918.809861528 | 981.190138471895 |
| 99 | 298800 | 301927.448016464 | -3127.4480164643 |
| 100 | 310300 | 304335.944196178 | 5964.055803822 |
| 101 | 293900 | 302061.557556553 | -8161.5575565531 |
| 102 | 305000 | 300153.764376167 | 4846.23562383285 |
| 103 | 311300 | 305016.956893982 | 6283.04310601793 |
| 104 | 317300 | 312040.330381487 | 5259.66961851279 |
| 105 | 296200 | 314158.891597974 | -17958.8915979736 |
| 106 | 306800 | 308449.967021670 | -1649.96702166955 |
| 107 | 291800 | 304854.911626939 | -13054.9116269391 |
| 108 | 301900 | 300049.341412819 | 1850.65858718136 |
| 109 | 314600 | 300754.870559267 | 13845.1294407328 |
| 110 | 321500 | 317589.516217238 | 3910.48378276231 |
| 111 | 329400 | 313268.151595155 | 16131.8484048450 |
| 112 | 311700 | 325644.926006498 | -13944.9260064982 |
| 113 | 309700 | 312563.644983304 | -2863.64498330437 |
| 114 | 306500 | 314455.793152962 | -7955.79315296229 |
| 115 | 307100 | 313631.033810826 | -6531.03381082579 |
| 116 | 301300 | 314695.890035702 | -13395.8900357022 |
| 117 | 292200 | 306005.737167801 | -13805.7371678005 |
| 118 | 310100 | 303759.177799010 | 6340.82220099046 |
| 119 | 316800 | 302694.055091098 | 14105.9449089023 |
| 120 | 284400 | 311867.546794029 | -27467.5467940287 |
| 121 | 284600 | 300284.482903393 | -15684.4829033932 |
| 122 | 301200 | 302182.366317398 | -982.366317397682 |
| 123 | 287600 | 297122.015972044 | -9522.01597204432 |
| 124 | 314300 | 294666.787746325 | 19633.2122536746 |
| 125 | 298200 | 298364.205412652 | -164.205412652169 |
| 126 | 299400 | 300916.429426254 | -1516.42942625372 |
| 127 | 301900 | 303117.26724659 | -1217.26724659029 |
| 128 | 265500 | 305861.502323839 | -40361.5023238392 |
| 129 | 287100 | 284977.367973402 | 2122.63202659832 |
| 130 | 274000 | 291801.285710803 | -17801.2857108031 |
| 131 | 290100 | 280733.013106238 | 9366.98689376237 |
| 132 | 263100 | 283739.576001709 | -20639.5760017087 |
| 133 | 245200 | 276325.894226481 | -31125.8942264812 |
| 134 | 258600 | 271633.909418633 | -13033.9094186330 |
| 135 | 259800 | 260972.012121791 | -1172.0121217907 |
| 136 | 269800 | 264761.880251737 | 5038.11974826292 |
| 137 | 274600 | 260865.933516035 | 13734.0664839647 |
| 138 | 274800 | 269504.669443312 | 5295.33055668755 |
| 139 | 271100 | 274681.365786238 | -3581.36578623787 |
| 140 | 257800 | 272415.507552164 | -14615.5075521643 |
| 141 | 290300 | 267465.020165797 | 22834.9798342034 |
| 142 | 262200 | 281694.041620673 | -19494.0416206730 |
| 143 | 270000 | 272550.080019718 | -2550.08001971780 |
| 144 | 290600 | 267344.138091802 | 23255.861908198 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 145 | 278851.652072713 | 266969.162478297 | 290734.141667129 |
| 146 | 290965.791206565 | 275324.750422770 | 306606.83199036 |
| 147 | 286985.703436384 | 268722.894252073 | 305248.512620694 |
| 148 | 292315.461143935 | 271390.176525797 | 313240.745762074 |
| 149 | 286339.199557518 | 263646.250254348 | 309032.148860689 |
| 150 | 287878.024990257 | 263133.060148915 | 312622.989831598 |
| 151 | 289798.848287068 | 263125.288177991 | 316472.408396145 |
| 152 | 287878.767987302 | 259706.456534833 | 316051.07943977 |
| 153 | 293610.987214270 | 263379.898151688 | 323842.076276851 |
| 154 | 293073.160486438 | 261445.854646713 | 324700.466326164 |
| 155 | 294564.959400048 | 261415.384454246 | 327714.534345851 |
| 156 | 292751.610929177 | 260609.419203813 | 324893.80265454 |
