Structural Time Series Model | |||||
t | Observed | Level | Slope | Seasonal | Stand. Residuals |
1 | 103.63 | 103.63 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
2 | 103.64 | 103.639487071081 | 0.000648910488208842 | 0.000512928919251249 | 0.0696065340614257 |
3 | 103.66 | 103.659452606885 | 0.00215282818789385 | 0.000547393115085597 | 0.228816834469941 |
4 | 103.77 | 103.769281152334 | 0.0137307162788176 | 0.000718847665878252 | 1.25458131126306 |
5 | 103.88 | 103.879148055760 | 0.0262805008831273 | 0.00085194424015538 | 1.10537017977190 |
6 | 103.91 | 103.909143671471 | 0.0268288266841244 | 0.000856328528564579 | 0.0422866014374643 |
7 | 103.91 | 103.90917024696 | 0.0225458493295439 | 0.00082975304009546 | -0.302820103381684 |
8 | 103.92 | 103.919180584254 | 0.0204358372168553 | 0.000819415746001782 | -0.140884834159692 |
9 | 104.05 | 104.049106020595 | 0.0395058700814675 | 0.000893979405276462 | 1.22601287192371 |
10 | 104.23 | 104.229027430388 | 0.064519210832272 | 0.000972569612124645 | 1.56831943482443 |
11 | 104.3 | 104.299024918589 | 0.0655097085829571 | 0.000975081410528457 | 0.0610814551868003 |
12 | 104.31 | 104.309045714998 | 0.0553781356693007 | 0.00095428500233726 | -0.617957149978106 |
13 | 104.31 | 104.333556955022 | 0.0500146811198818 | -0.0235569550220304 | -0.402404334177696 |
14 | 104.34 | 104.338870570821 | 0.0419403926630187 | 0.00112942917926398 | -0.42032620218643 |
15 | 104.55 | 104.548963141537 | 0.0730644551515239 | 0.00103685846309704 | 1.86784281917169 |
16 | 104.65 | 104.648975226234 | 0.0780609571006235 | 0.00102477376643753 | 0.299310728749698 |
17 | 104.73 | 104.72897593464 | 0.0784210348072705 | 0.00102406535992498 | 0.0215442088356734 |
18 | 104.75 | 104.748958557484 | 0.0675645706706305 | 0.00104144251627414 | -0.649048239773017 |
19 | 104.75 | 104.748942197010 | 0.0550030056910709 | 0.00105780299042050 | -0.750590883487078 |
20 | 104.76 | 104.758933326375 | 0.0466334496302088 | 0.00106667362483166 | -0.499931189073008 |
21 | 104.94 | 104.938954724502 | 0.0714418079252465 | 0.00104527549776337 | 1.48151251059090 |
22 | 105.29 | 105.288991103171 | 0.123265314780059 | 0.00100889682866174 | 3.09433629892012 |
23 | 105.38 | 105.378987567145 | 0.117076006931446 | 0.0010124328549743 | -0.369520630496941 |
24 | 105.43 | 105.428981763805 | 0.104595165365442 | 0.00101823619525671 | -0.7450943267097 |
25 | 105.43 | 105.456662168138 | 0.0904927124064977 | -0.0266621681380912 | -0.92733967289765 |
26 | 105.42 | 105.419428309393 | 0.0672061618174816 | 0.000571690606598565 | -1.28507598990847 |
27 | 105.52 | 105.51944302157 | 0.0733139288280936 | 0.000556978429990895 | 0.364241115792154 |
28 | 105.69 | 105.689478327500 | 0.091316391971402 | 0.000521672500332262 | 1.07392673202998 |
29 | 105.72 | 105.719460105367 | 0.0799017147403285 | 0.00053989463314945 | -0.681077595004771 |
30 | 105.74 | 105.739445617214 | 0.0687517714910469 | 0.000554382785935683 | -0.665373333127532 |
31 | 105.74 | 105.739432083502 | 0.0559555496612175 | 0.000567916497887755 | -0.763684705238315 |
32 | 105.74 | 105.739423118697 | 0.0455415515773537 | 0.00057688130312154 | -0.621549981318638 |
33 | 105.95 | 105.949444563502 | 0.0761481398715597 | 0.000555436498030725 | 1.82679941144869 |
34 | 106.17 | 106.169459830441 | 0.102919096149951 | 0.0005401695586487 | 1.59790640483198 |
35 | 106.34 | 106.339465624829 | 0.115402713987890 | 0.000534375170899903 | 0.745135995494691 |
36 | 106.37 | 106.369459620652 | 0.099509610974413 | 0.000540379348171504 | -0.948656153894987 |
37 | 106.37 | 106.386774852444 | 0.0843515476891247 | -0.0167748524439978 | -0.965145018751399 |
38 | 106.36 | 106.359667329378 | 0.063928410541856 | 0.000332670621857405 | -1.15357188907121 |
39 | 106.44 | 106.439672759715 | 0.0669212106096375 | 0.000327240285006276 | 0.178510453829056 |
40 | 106.29 | 106.289613075859 | 0.0265359572112102 | 0.000386924141393101 | -2.40945134794615 |
41 | 106.23 | 106.229593698370 | 0.0104275588418632 | 0.00040630163009411 | -0.961214208414722 |
42 | 106.23 | 106.229591797994 | 0.00848669384763967 | 0.000408202005607816 | -0.115827359427076 |
43 | 106.23 | 106.229590539192 | 0.00690718277773937 | 0.000409460808479994 | -0.0942693049984303 |
44 | 106.23 | 106.229589705344 | 0.00562170024160942 | 0.000410294656446816 | -0.0767246436068602 |
45 | 106.34 | 106.339599961054 | 0.0250467851818298 | 0.000400038946161406 | 1.15943279787802 |
46 | 106.44 | 106.439605955061 | 0.0389955154595105 | 0.000394044938584992 | 0.83258115499392 |
47 | 106.44 | 106.439603416928 | 0.0317385746477565 | 0.000396583071970762 | -0.433163251940526 |
48 | 106.48 | 106.479603854579 | 0.0332759866165655 | 0.000396145420547206 | 0.0917682266489144 |
49 | 106.5 | 106.505118072273 | 0.0318411940036946 | -0.00511807227287477 | -0.0899165989108308 |
50 | 106.57 | 106.569260897074 | 0.037778951324272 | 0.000739102925939693 | 0.339590706536093 |
51 | 106.4 | 106.399205020961 | -0.000907727381292717 | 0.000794979039216034 | -2.30788000980989 |
52 | 106.37 | 106.369198654227 | -0.00632348611387767 | 0.000801345772593357 | -0.323145614471233 |
53 | 106.25 | 106.249178407179 | -0.0274827513435613 | 0.000821592821104137 | -1.26269159907276 |
54 | 106.21 | 106.209176592668 | -0.0298124748644497 | 0.000823407332374508 | -0.139039868929669 |
55 | 106.21 | 106.209180110003 | -0.0242640361638870 | 0.000819889996553154 | 0.331154835263960 |
56 | 106.24 | 106.239185320707 | -0.0141652357373642 | 0.000814679293100075 | 0.602763417353139 |
57 | 106.19 | 106.189182520052 | -0.0208341059855329 | 0.000817479947739854 | -0.39805261908213 |
58 | 106.08 | 106.079176848185 | -0.0374276775538321 | 0.000823151814591872 | -0.990456617980347 |
59 | 106.13 | 106.129181374549 | -0.0211577482227694 | 0.000818625450808103 | 0.971149592792165 |
60 | 106.09 | 106.089180580573 | -0.0246641899518216 | 0.000819419426550609 | -0.209300528484211 |