| Multiple Linear Regression - Estimated Regression Equation |
| TWIB[t] = + 594927.970623835 -17243.5164516920GI[t] -5817.46518820495M1[t] -8727.55493550756M2[t] -17855.7124462563M3[t] -22971.8113494768M4[t] -31496.9102526974M5[t] -27858.5M6[t] + 25881.4505483898M7[t] + 34141.0494516103M8[t] + 27216.5M9[t] + 13315.1758225846M10[t] -3447.83333333331M11[t] + e[t] |
| Multiple Linear Regression - Ordinary Least Squares | |||||
| Variable | Parameter | S.D. | T-STAT H0: parameter = 0 | 2-tail p-value | 1-tail p-value |
| (Intercept) | 594927.970623835 | 16314.907727 | 36.4653 | 0 | 0 |
| GI | -17243.5164516920 | 3888.146543 | -4.4349 | 4.1e-05 | 2e-05 |
| M1 | -5817.46518820495 | 19484.209737 | -0.2986 | 0.766315 | 0.383157 |
| M2 | -8727.55493550756 | 19451.746008 | -0.4487 | 0.655308 | 0.327654 |
| M3 | -17855.7124462563 | 19441.056722 | -0.9185 | 0.362121 | 0.18106 |
| M4 | -22971.8113494768 | 19429.821239 | -1.1823 | 0.241831 | 0.120916 |
| M5 | -31496.9102526974 | 19422.039021 | -1.6217 | 0.110198 | 0.055099 |
| M6 | -27858.5 | 19416.741005 | -1.4348 | 0.156633 | 0.078317 |
| M7 | 25881.4505483898 | 19417.17355 | 1.3329 | 0.187684 | 0.093842 |
| M8 | 34141.0494516103 | 19417.17355 | 1.7583 | 0.083884 | 0.041942 |
| M9 | 27216.5 | 19416.741005 | 1.4017 | 0.166243 | 0.083122 |
| M10 | 13315.1758225846 | 19417.714218 | 0.6857 | 0.495573 | 0.247787 |
| M11 | -3447.83333333331 | 19416.741005 | -0.1776 | 0.859669 | 0.429834 |
| Multiple Linear Regression - Regression Statistics | |
| Multiple R | 0.662414641170354 |
| R-squared | 0.438793156836848 |
| Adjusted R-squared | 0.324649392125699 |
| F-TEST (value) | 3.84421486313555 |
| F-TEST (DF numerator) | 12 |
| F-TEST (DF denominator) | 59 |
| p-value | 0.000242570584629398 |
| Multiple Linear Regression - Residual Statistics | |
| Residual Standard Deviation | 33630.7819379067 |
| Sum Squared Residuals | 66730740131.5468 |
| Multiple Linear Regression - Actuals, Interpolation, and Residuals | |||
| Time or Index | Actuals | Interpolation Forecast | Residuals Prediction Error |
| 1 | 519164 | 573591.340629107 | -54427.3406291072 |
| 2 | 517009 | 563783.844301128 | -46774.844301128 |
| 3 | 509933 | 552931.33514521 | -42998.3351452101 |
| 4 | 509127 | 546090.88459682 | -36963.8845968203 |
| 5 | 500857 | 544463.192274277 | -43606.1922742765 |
| 6 | 506971 | 539479.844301128 | -32508.844301128 |
| 7 | 569323 | 594944.146494687 | -25621.1464946869 |
| 8 | 579714 | 601479.393752738 | -21765.3937527382 |
| 9 | 577992 | 592830.492655959 | -14838.4926559588 |
| 10 | 565464 | 580653.520123713 | -15189.5201237126 |
| 11 | 547344 | 562166.159322625 | -14822.1593226254 |
| 12 | 554788 | 567338.344301128 | -12550.3443011280 |
| 13 | 562325 | 561520.879112923 | 804.120887076976 |
| 14 | 560854 | 563783.844301128 | -2929.84430112799 |
| 15 | 555332 | 558104.390080718 | -2772.39008071764 |
| 16 | 543599 | 544366.532951651 | -767.532951651121 |
| 17 | 536662 | 530668.379112923 | 5993.62088707702 |
| 18 | 542722 | 539479.844301128 | 3242.15569887204 |
| 19 | 593530 | 591495.443204349 | 2034.55679565148 |
| 20 | 610763 | 601479.393752738 | 9283.60624726175 |
| 21 | 612613 | 598003.547591466 | 14609.4524085336 |
| 22 | 611324 | 572031.761897867 | 39292.2381021334 |
| 23 | 594167 | 558717.456032287 | 35449.5439677129 |
| 24 | 595454 | 565613.992655959 | 29840.0073440412 |
| 25 | 590865 | 558072.175822585 | 32792.8241774154 |
| 26 | 589379 | 551713.382784944 | 37665.6172150564 |
| 27 | 584428 | 533963.467048349 | 50464.5329516511 |
| 28 | 573100 | 535744.774725805 | 37355.2252741949 |
| 29 | 567456 | 527219.675822585 | 40236.3241774154 |
| 30 | 569028 | 527409.382784944 | 41618.6172150564 |
| 31 | 620735 | 579424.981688164 | 41310.0183118359 |
| 32 | 628884 | 587684.580591385 | 41199.4194086153 |
| 33 | 628232 | 582484.382784944 | 45747.6172150564 |
| 34 | 612117 | 578929.168478543 | 33187.8315214566 |
| 35 | 595404 | 556993.104387118 | 38410.8956128821 |
| 36 | 597141 | 555267.882784944 | 41873.1172150564 |
| 37 | 593408 | 554623.472532246 | 38784.5274677538 |
| 38 | 590072 | 551713.382784944 | 38358.6172150564 |
| 39 | 579799 | 554655.686790379 | 25143.3132096207 |
| 40 | 574205 | 542642.181306482 | 31562.8186935181 |
| 41 | 572775 | 530668.379112923 | 42106.620887077 |
| 42 | 572942 | 537755.492655959 | 35186.5073440412 |
| 43 | 619567 | 593219.794849518 | 26347.2051504823 |
| 44 | 625809 | 599755.042107569 | 26053.9578924309 |
| 45 | 619916 | 591106.14101079 | 28809.8589892104 |
| 46 | 587625 | 575480.465188205 | 12144.534811795 |
| 47 | 565742 | 558717.456032287 | 7024.54396771293 |
| 48 | 557274 | 562165.28936562 | -4891.28936562038 |
| 49 | 560576 | 554623.472532246 | 5952.52746775376 |
| 50 | 548854 | 549989.031139774 | -1135.03113977442 |
| 51 | 531673 | 544309.576919364 | -12636.5769193641 |
| 52 | 525919 | 539193.478016144 | -13274.4780161435 |
| 53 | 511038 | 541014.488983938 | -29976.4889839382 |
| 54 | 498662 | 544652.899236636 | -45990.8992366356 |
| 55 | 555362 | 596668.498139856 | -41306.4981398561 |
| 56 | 564591 | 608376.800333415 | -43785.800333415 |
| 57 | 541657 | 599727.899236636 | -58070.8992366356 |
| 58 | 527070 | 577204.816833374 | -50134.8168333742 |
| 59 | 509846 | 553544.40109678 | -43698.4010967795 |
| 60 | 514258 | 550094.827849436 | -35836.827849436 |
| 61 | 516922 | 540828.659370893 | -23906.6593708927 |
| 62 | 507561 | 532745.514688083 | -25184.5146880825 |
| 63 | 492622 | 509822.54401598 | -17200.5440159802 |
| 64 | 490243 | 508155.148403098 | -17912.148403098 |
| 65 | 469357 | 484110.884693355 | -14753.8846933547 |
| 66 | 477580 | 479127.536720206 | -1547.53672020610 |
| 67 | 528379 | 531143.135623427 | -2764.13562342665 |
| 68 | 533590 | 544575.789462155 | -10985.7894621548 |
| 69 | 517945 | 534202.536720206 | -16257.5367202061 |
| 70 | 506174 | 525474.267478298 | -19300.2674782983 |
| 71 | 501866 | 524230.423128903 | -22364.4231289031 |
| 72 | 516141 | 534575.663042913 | -18434.6630429132 |
| Goldfeld-Quandt test for Heteroskedasticity | |||
| p-values | Alternative Hypothesis | ||
| breakpoint index | greater | 2-sided | less |
| 16 | 0.572496107531787 | 0.855007784936426 | 0.427503892468213 |
| 17 | 0.40127035712151 | 0.80254071424302 | 0.59872964287849 |
| 18 | 0.339616141478574 | 0.679232282957149 | 0.660383858521426 |
| 19 | 0.233073132336997 | 0.466146264673994 | 0.766926867663003 |
| 20 | 0.182826862237652 | 0.365653724475304 | 0.817173137762348 |
| 21 | 0.183636720801065 | 0.367273441602129 | 0.816363279198935 |
| 22 | 0.148430734473538 | 0.296861468947077 | 0.851569265526462 |
| 23 | 0.137543387395877 | 0.275086774791753 | 0.862456612604124 |
| 24 | 0.120425356561328 | 0.240850713122656 | 0.879574643438672 |
| 25 | 0.0892554663775737 | 0.178510932755147 | 0.910744533622426 |
| 26 | 0.0599547226007006 | 0.119909445201401 | 0.9400452773993 |
| 27 | 0.0481350301456474 | 0.0962700602912947 | 0.951864969854353 |
| 28 | 0.0348583912307602 | 0.0697167824615204 | 0.96514160876924 |
| 29 | 0.0249901269681397 | 0.0499802539362793 | 0.97500987303186 |
| 30 | 0.0170973336330609 | 0.0341946672661217 | 0.98290266636694 |
| 31 | 0.0119985236334213 | 0.0239970472668426 | 0.988001476366579 |
| 32 | 0.00921080219813615 | 0.0184216043962723 | 0.990789197801864 |
| 33 | 0.00809231539069898 | 0.0161846307813980 | 0.9919076846093 |
| 34 | 0.00972192524687258 | 0.0194438504937452 | 0.990278074753127 |
| 35 | 0.00954515725709607 | 0.0190903145141921 | 0.990454842742904 |
| 36 | 0.0107120186783895 | 0.0214240373567791 | 0.98928798132161 |
| 37 | 0.00885559746669698 | 0.0177111949333940 | 0.991144402533303 |
| 38 | 0.0082580264349071 | 0.0165160528698142 | 0.991741973565093 |
| 39 | 0.0181449161806878 | 0.0362898323613757 | 0.981855083819312 |
| 40 | 0.0250016087409034 | 0.0500032174818067 | 0.974998391259097 |
| 41 | 0.0454198579564544 | 0.0908397159129088 | 0.954580142043546 |
| 42 | 0.097041000192805 | 0.19408200038561 | 0.902958999807195 |
| 43 | 0.159283683380409 | 0.318567366760818 | 0.840716316619591 |
| 44 | 0.258854817159789 | 0.517709634319578 | 0.741145182840211 |
| 45 | 0.559551157696664 | 0.880897684606672 | 0.440448842303336 |
| 46 | 0.778806287738326 | 0.442387424523347 | 0.221193712261674 |
| 47 | 0.92395738964172 | 0.152085220716559 | 0.0760426103582796 |
| 48 | 0.95776232282211 | 0.084475354355779 | 0.0422376771778895 |
| 49 | 0.984318469369336 | 0.0313630612613283 | 0.0156815306306641 |
| 50 | 0.996211872145127 | 0.0075762557097451 | 0.00378812785487255 |
| 51 | 0.99824876975988 | 0.00350246048024043 | 0.00175123024012022 |
| 52 | 0.999485147549233 | 0.00102970490153403 | 0.000514852450767013 |
| 53 | 0.9999430492383 | 0.000113901523398892 | 5.69507616994458e-05 |
| 54 | 0.99975419597473 | 0.000491608050540802 | 0.000245804025270401 |
| 55 | 0.998388508685819 | 0.00322298262836231 | 0.00161149131418115 |
| 56 | 0.995462378816467 | 0.00907524236706652 | 0.00453762118353326 |
| Meta Analysis of Goldfeld-Quandt test for Heteroskedasticity | |||
| Description | # significant tests | % significant tests | OK/NOK |
| 1% type I error level | 7 | 0.170731707317073 | NOK |
| 5% type I error level | 19 | 0.463414634146341 | NOK |
| 10% type I error level | 24 | 0.585365853658537 | NOK |
