| Multiple Linear Regression - Estimated Regression Equation |
| nwwmb[t] = + 301925.215652174 + 27102.0695652174dummy_variable[t] -8235.60492753617M1[t] -12725.675942029M2[t] -17303.9469565217M3[t] -13996.8179710145M4[t] -11033.0889855073M5[t] -10879.1600000000M6[t] -13472.6310144928M7[t] -13976.9020289855M8[t] -18841.9730434783M9[t] -19865.2440579710M10[t] + 2267.08492753623M11[t] -981.728985507247t + e[t] |
| Multiple Linear Regression - Ordinary Least Squares | |||||
| Variable | Parameter | S.D. | T-STAT H0: parameter = 0 | 2-tail p-value | 1-tail p-value |
| (Intercept) | 301925.215652174 | 7126.659374 | 42.3656 | 0 | 0 |
| dummy_variable | 27102.0695652174 | 6092.422991 | 4.4485 | 5.4e-05 | 2.7e-05 |
| M1 | -8235.60492753617 | 8508.262135 | -0.968 | 0.338129 | 0.169065 |
| M2 | -12725.675942029 | 8496.893764 | -1.4977 | 0.141046 | 0.070523 |
| M3 | -17303.9469565217 | 8488.041171 | -2.0386 | 0.047259 | 0.023629 |
| M4 | -13996.8179710145 | 8481.712233 | -1.6502 | 0.105708 | 0.052854 |
| M5 | -11033.0889855073 | 8477.912602 | -1.3014 | 0.199605 | 0.099802 |
| M6 | -10879.1600000000 | 8476.64568 | -1.2834 | 0.20577 | 0.102885 |
| M7 | -13472.6310144928 | 8477.912602 | -1.5891 | 0.118878 | 0.059439 |
| M8 | -13976.9020289855 | 8481.712233 | -1.6479 | 0.106191 | 0.053095 |
| M9 | -18841.9730434783 | 8488.041171 | -2.2198 | 0.0314 | 0.0157 |
| M10 | -19865.2440579710 | 8496.893764 | -2.3379 | 0.023795 | 0.011897 |
| M11 | 2267.08492753623 | 8508.262135 | 0.2665 | 0.791078 | 0.395539 |
| t | -981.728985507247 | 146.560919 | -6.6984 | 0 | 0 |
| Multiple Linear Regression - Regression Statistics | |
| Multiple R | 0.755624544566562 |
| R-squared | 0.570968452351425 |
| Adjusted R-squared | 0.449720406276828 |
| F-TEST (value) | 4.70909405006114 |
| F-TEST (DF numerator) | 13 |
| F-TEST (DF denominator) | 46 |
| p-value | 4.2543697165609e-05 |
| Multiple Linear Regression - Residual Statistics | |
| Residual Standard Deviation | 13336.2383167097 |
| Sum Squared Residuals | 8181341612.24347 |
| Multiple Linear Regression - Actuals, Interpolation, and Residuals | |||
| Time or Index | Actuals | Interpolation Forecast | Residuals Prediction Error |
| 1 | 286602 | 292707.88173913 | -6105.88173913017 |
| 2 | 283042 | 287236.081739130 | -4194.08173913043 |
| 3 | 276687 | 281676.081739130 | -4989.08173913046 |
| 4 | 277915 | 284001.481739130 | -6086.48173913043 |
| 5 | 277128 | 285983.481739130 | -8855.48173913047 |
| 6 | 277103 | 285155.681739130 | -8052.68173913045 |
| 7 | 275037 | 281580.481739130 | -6543.48173913046 |
| 8 | 270150 | 280094.481739130 | -9944.48173913043 |
| 9 | 267140 | 274247.681739130 | -7107.68173913044 |
| 10 | 264993 | 272242.681739130 | -7249.68173913046 |
| 11 | 287259 | 293393.281739130 | -6134.28173913044 |
| 12 | 291186 | 290144.467826087 | 1041.53217391303 |
| 13 | 292300 | 280927.133913044 | 11372.8660869565 |
| 14 | 288186 | 275455.333913043 | 12730.6660869565 |
| 15 | 281477 | 269895.333913043 | 11581.6660869565 |
| 16 | 282656 | 272220.733913044 | 10435.2660869565 |
| 17 | 280190 | 274202.733913043 | 5987.26608695652 |
| 18 | 280408 | 273374.933913043 | 7033.06608695651 |
| 19 | 276836 | 269799.733913044 | 7036.26608695651 |
| 20 | 275216 | 268313.733913044 | 6902.26608695651 |
| 21 | 274352 | 262466.933913043 | 11885.0660869565 |
| 22 | 271311 | 260461.933913043 | 10849.0660869565 |
| 23 | 289802 | 281612.533913044 | 8189.46608695652 |
| 24 | 290726 | 278363.72 | 12362.28 |
| 25 | 292300 | 269146.386086957 | 23153.6139130434 |
| 26 | 278506 | 263674.586086956 | 14831.4139130435 |
| 27 | 269826 | 258114.586086957 | 11711.4139130435 |
| 28 | 265861 | 260439.986086957 | 5421.01391304348 |
| 29 | 269034 | 262421.986086957 | 6612.01391304349 |
| 30 | 264176 | 261594.186086957 | 2581.81391304349 |
| 31 | 255198 | 258018.986086957 | -2820.98608695652 |
| 32 | 253353 | 256532.986086957 | -3179.98608695652 |
| 33 | 246057 | 250686.186086957 | -4629.18608695652 |
| 34 | 235372 | 248681.186086957 | -13309.1860869565 |
| 35 | 258556 | 269831.786086957 | -11275.7860869565 |
| 36 | 260993 | 266582.972173913 | -5589.97217391304 |
| 37 | 254663 | 257365.638260870 | -2702.63826086963 |
| 38 | 250643 | 251893.838260870 | -1250.83826086955 |
| 39 | 243422 | 246333.838260870 | -2911.83826086955 |
| 40 | 247105 | 248659.238260870 | -1554.23826086955 |
| 41 | 248541 | 250641.238260870 | -2100.23826086954 |
| 42 | 245039 | 249813.438260870 | -4774.43826086955 |
| 43 | 237080 | 246238.238260870 | -9158.23826086955 |
| 44 | 237085 | 244752.238260870 | -7667.23826086955 |
| 45 | 225554 | 238905.438260870 | -13351.4382608696 |
| 46 | 226839 | 236900.438260870 | -10061.4382608696 |
| 47 | 247934 | 258051.038260870 | -10117.0382608696 |
| 48 | 248333 | 281904.293913043 | -33571.2939130435 |
| 49 | 246969 | 272686.96 | -25717.9600000001 |
| 50 | 245098 | 267215.16 | -22117.16 |
| 51 | 246263 | 261655.16 | -15392.16 |
| 52 | 255765 | 263980.56 | -8215.56 |
| 53 | 264319 | 265962.56 | -1643.55999999999 |
| 54 | 268347 | 265134.76 | 3212.24000000001 |
| 55 | 273046 | 261559.56 | 11486.44 |
| 56 | 273963 | 260073.56 | 13889.44 |
| 57 | 267430 | 254226.76 | 13203.24 |
| 58 | 271993 | 252221.76 | 19771.24 |
| 59 | 292710 | 273372.36 | 19337.64 |
| 60 | 295881 | 270123.546086957 | 25757.4539130435 |
