| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.275592931492333 |
| beta | 0.0326927269947438 |
| gamma | 0.870730972374008 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 13 | 115 | 111.081808708867 | 3.91819129113328 |
| 14 | 126 | 122.331453874742 | 3.66854612525761 |
| 15 | 141 | 137.439015376157 | 3.56098462384284 |
| 16 | 135 | 132.323383220293 | 2.67661677970653 |
| 17 | 125 | 123.479682818147 | 1.52031718185303 |
| 18 | 149 | 147.667290233188 | 1.33270976681194 |
| 19 | 170 | 162.443244801899 | 7.55675519810066 |
| 20 | 170 | 165.529592394217 | 4.47040760578255 |
| 21 | 158 | 153.887714464933 | 4.11228553506743 |
| 22 | 133 | 136.318642929536 | -3.3186429295356 |
| 23 | 114 | 119.090609201624 | -5.09060920162396 |
| 24 | 140 | 133.988714960677 | 6.0112850393225 |
| 25 | 145 | 134.830370109663 | 10.1696298903367 |
| 26 | 150 | 149.705146015379 | 0.294853984620914 |
| 27 | 178 | 166.540824859924 | 11.4591751400757 |
| 28 | 163 | 161.749729120069 | 1.25027087993098 |
| 29 | 172 | 149.757505882891 | 22.2424941171092 |
| 30 | 178 | 185.647729927987 | -7.64772992798655 |
| 31 | 199 | 206.262157804499 | -7.26215780449877 |
| 32 | 199 | 203.180877899402 | -4.18087789940233 |
| 33 | 184 | 186.419241979639 | -2.41924197963931 |
| 34 | 162 | 158.147782759537 | 3.85221724046292 |
| 35 | 146 | 138.368716981080 | 7.63128301892016 |
| 36 | 166 | 169.141347816413 | -3.14134781641266 |
| 37 | 171 | 170.360945870189 | 0.639054129810944 |
| 38 | 180 | 177.438178047919 | 2.56182195208055 |
| 39 | 193 | 206.247937689468 | -13.2479376894684 |
| 40 | 181 | 185.960724160939 | -4.96072416093864 |
| 41 | 183 | 184.798364145754 | -1.79836414575391 |
| 42 | 218 | 195.684359733572 | 22.3156402664278 |
| 43 | 230 | 227.498387941045 | 2.5016120589554 |
| 44 | 242 | 229.004769688519 | 12.9952303114810 |
| 45 | 209 | 215.630988418267 | -6.63098841826653 |
| 46 | 191 | 186.286598351088 | 4.71340164891208 |
| 47 | 172 | 166.037643993557 | 5.96235600644326 |
| 48 | 194 | 192.842509510071 | 1.15749048992947 |
| 49 | 196 | 198.309952885667 | -2.30995288566717 |
| 50 | 196 | 206.984486038046 | -10.9844860380456 |
| 51 | 236 | 224.192940896233 | 11.8070591037674 |
| 52 | 235 | 214.065417855659 | 20.9345821443406 |
| 53 | 229 | 222.675252447097 | 6.32474755290255 |
| 54 | 243 | 256.738013695458 | -13.7380136954578 |
| 55 | 264 | 268.357973304421 | -4.35797330442080 |
| 56 | 272 | 275.595124348779 | -3.59512434877928 |
| 57 | 237 | 240.950022441534 | -3.95002244153355 |
| 58 | 211 | 216.418700337475 | -5.41870033747466 |
| 59 | 180 | 191.302342357419 | -11.3023423574190 |
| 60 | 201 | 212.165187519317 | -11.1651875193170 |
| 61 | 204 | 211.884585973233 | -7.88458597323302 |
| 62 | 188 | 213.278482377796 | -25.2784823777957 |
| 63 | 235 | 241.844280631679 | -6.84428063167888 |
| 64 | 227 | 231.126644343174 | -4.12664434317369 |
| 65 | 234 | 222.847562357444 | 11.1524376425561 |
| 66 | 264 | 244.403573681996 | 19.5964263180045 |
| 67 | 302 | 270.925436787525 | 31.0745632124749 |
| 68 | 293 | 288.463304382630 | 4.53669561737041 |
| 69 | 259 | 253.325573114429 | 5.67442688557071 |
| 70 | 229 | 228.457242585480 | 0.542757414519542 |
| 71 | 203 | 198.766723711057 | 4.23327628894256 |
| 72 | 229 | 226.325370930038 | 2.67462906996178 |
| 73 | 242 | 232.507697921112 | 9.49230207888777 |
| 74 | 233 | 226.155470683096 | 6.84452931690356 |
| 75 | 267 | 284.984135370815 | -17.984135370815 |
| 76 | 269 | 271.954055875764 | -2.95405587576425 |
| 77 | 270 | 274.414364054006 | -4.41436405400611 |
| 78 | 315 | 301.110875438719 | 13.8891245612812 |
| 79 | 364 | 337.481483997019 | 26.5185160029808 |
| 80 | 347 | 335.985512136366 | 11.0144878636339 |
| 81 | 312 | 297.836655531177 | 14.1633444688228 |
| 82 | 274 | 267.300437713933 | 6.69956228606708 |
| 83 | 237 | 236.992541506195 | 0.00745849380476216 |
| 84 | 278 | 266.900682035767 | 11.0993179642327 |
| 85 | 284 | 281.633930499981 | 2.36606950001874 |
| 86 | 277 | 269.967232749704 | 7.03276725029627 |
| 87 | 317 | 320.174971097699 | -3.17497109769943 |
| 88 | 313 | 321.276901514013 | -8.2769015140127 |
| 89 | 318 | 322.045741716523 | -4.04574171652263 |
| 90 | 374 | 367.95119390836 | 6.04880609163985 |
| 91 | 413 | 417.20324189844 | -4.20324189843973 |
| 92 | 405 | 394.606219282439 | 10.3937807175610 |
| 93 | 355 | 352.306636965006 | 2.69336303499392 |
| 94 | 306 | 308.449783989787 | -2.44978398978702 |
| 95 | 271 | 266.69631319267 | 4.30368680732988 |
| 96 | 306 | 309.394151440329 | -3.39415144032859 |
| 97 | 315 | 315.103159698916 | -0.103159698916272 |
| 98 | 301 | 304.405343346902 | -3.4053433469017 |
| 99 | 356 | 349.058165450379 | 6.94183454962058 |
| 100 | 348 | 349.292530352998 | -1.29253035299848 |
| 101 | 355 | 355.07317102392 | -0.0731710239203949 |
| 102 | 422 | 414.360938373284 | 7.6390616267164 |
| 103 | 465 | 462.091156275825 | 2.90884372417509 |
| 104 | 467 | 448.979717852711 | 18.0202821472888 |
| 105 | 404 | 397.635009922119 | 6.36499007788103 |
| 106 | 347 | 345.450966287894 | 1.54903371210571 |
| 107 | 305 | 304.243031112076 | 0.756968887924245 |
| 108 | 336 | 345.615225431220 | -9.61522543121976 |
| 109 | 340 | 352.616275490595 | -12.6162754905953 |
| 110 | 318 | 334.810864863475 | -16.8108648634752 |
| 111 | 362 | 386.941342201651 | -24.9413422016506 |
| 112 | 348 | 372.190810667806 | -24.1908106678064 |
| 113 | 363 | 372.090086438278 | -9.09008643827758 |
| 114 | 435 | 435.498520155361 | -0.498520155360723 |
| 115 | 491 | 478.418370094791 | 12.5816299052085 |
| 116 | 505 | 476.297754928979 | 28.7022450710215 |
| 117 | 404 | 417.219149854204 | -13.2191498542045 |
| 118 | 359 | 354.436902962759 | 4.56309703724105 |
| 119 | 310 | 311.876475452214 | -1.87647545221381 |
| 120 | 337 | 345.975115388041 | -8.97511538804093 |
| 121 | 360 | 350.64305814032 | 9.35694185967964 |
| 122 | 342 | 334.994580207110 | 7.0054197928896 |
| 123 | 406 | 390.685875425546 | 15.3141245744536 |
| 124 | 396 | 386.498865844796 | 9.50113415520354 |
| 125 | 420 | 407.130762273219 | 12.8692377267807 |
| 126 | 472 | 491.605011219962 | -19.6050112199623 |
| 127 | 548 | 543.780046558739 | 4.2199534412614 |
| 128 | 559 | 549.9353273917 | 9.0646726082997 |
| 129 | 463 | 449.638746709422 | 13.3612532905782 |
| 130 | 407 | 399.913034211769 | 7.08696578823083 |
| 131 | 362 | 348.397212667469 | 13.6027873325311 |
| 132 | 405 | 386.652084703316 | 18.3479152966844 |
| 133 | 417 | 413.916781467431 | 3.08321853256905 |
| 134 | 391 | 392.451160427228 | -1.45116042722816 |
| 135 | 419 | 460.170497130596 | -41.1704971305962 |
| 136 | 461 | 435.421755571356 | 25.5782444286439 |
| 137 | 472 | 465.095102857791 | 6.90489714220945 |
| 138 | 535 | 534.352674389911 | 0.647325610088842 |
| 139 | 622 | 616.73536618622 | 5.26463381378016 |
| 140 | 606 | 627.551069242193 | -21.5510692421930 |
| 141 | 508 | 510.133139879417 | -2.1331398794174 |
| 142 | 461 | 446.162791637769 | 14.8372083622306 |
| 143 | 390 | 395.452817969955 | -5.45281796995471 |
| 144 | 432 | 434.572452493995 | -2.57245249399460 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 145 | 447.055907793748 | 427.306081839881 | 466.805733747616 |
| 146 | 419.712252491685 | 399.132529133936 | 440.291975849435 |
| 147 | 464.867062938332 | 442.962936376578 | 486.771189500086 |
| 148 | 496.08393808204 | 472.832869325636 | 519.335006838444 |
| 149 | 507.532607460917 | 483.13745188183 | 531.927763040004 |
| 150 | 575.45083938456 | 548.708168067514 | 602.193510701605 |
| 151 | 666.592241551587 | 636.628745108668 | 696.555737994505 |
| 152 | 657.913647955767 | 627.181984104084 | 688.64531180745 |
| 153 | 550.308727275651 | 521.63972761341 | 578.977726937891 |
| 154 | 492.985286976115 | 465.015260234151 | 520.955313718078 |
| 155 | 420.207239449315 | 393.468712587999 | 446.945766310631 |
| 156 | 465.634459283973 | 443.300359438534 | 487.968559129412 |
