| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.275592931492623 |
| beta | 0.0326927269946692 |
| gamma | 0.8707309723751 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 13 | 115 | 111.081808708867 | 3.91819129113324 |
| 14 | 126 | 122.331453874744 | 3.66854612525638 |
| 15 | 141 | 137.439015376159 | 3.56098462384080 |
| 16 | 135 | 132.323383220296 | 2.67661677970432 |
| 17 | 125 | 123.479682818149 | 1.52031718185103 |
| 18 | 149 | 147.66729023319 | 1.33270976680996 |
| 19 | 170 | 162.443244801901 | 7.55675519809901 |
| 20 | 170 | 165.529592394220 | 4.47040760577966 |
| 21 | 158 | 153.887714464935 | 4.11228553506479 |
| 22 | 133 | 136.318642929538 | -3.31864292953784 |
| 23 | 114 | 119.090609201624 | -5.09060920162416 |
| 24 | 140 | 133.988714960676 | 6.01128503932438 |
| 25 | 145 | 134.830370109666 | 10.1696298903343 |
| 26 | 150 | 149.705146015382 | 0.294853984617731 |
| 27 | 178 | 166.540824859925 | 11.4591751400746 |
| 28 | 163 | 161.749729120071 | 1.25027087992851 |
| 29 | 172 | 149.757505882891 | 22.2424941171085 |
| 30 | 178 | 185.647729927994 | -7.64772992799351 |
| 31 | 199 | 206.262157804505 | -7.26215780450494 |
| 32 | 199 | 203.180877899401 | -4.18087789940057 |
| 33 | 184 | 186.419241979636 | -2.41924197963596 |
| 34 | 162 | 158.147782759529 | 3.85221724047062 |
| 35 | 146 | 138.368716981075 | 7.63128301892496 |
| 36 | 166 | 169.141347816420 | -3.14134781641982 |
| 37 | 171 | 170.360945870195 | 0.63905412980543 |
| 38 | 180 | 177.438178047914 | 2.56182195208552 |
| 39 | 193 | 206.247937689471 | -13.2479376894715 |
| 40 | 181 | 185.960724160929 | -4.960724160929 |
| 41 | 183 | 184.798364145757 | -1.79836414575698 |
| 42 | 218 | 195.684359733551 | 22.3156402664486 |
| 43 | 230 | 227.498387941041 | 2.50161205895935 |
| 44 | 242 | 229.00476968852 | 12.9952303114799 |
| 45 | 209 | 215.630988418272 | -6.63098841827184 |
| 46 | 191 | 186.286598351091 | 4.71340164890901 |
| 47 | 172 | 166.03764399356 | 5.96235600644013 |
| 48 | 194 | 192.842509510068 | 1.15749048993163 |
| 49 | 196 | 198.309952885671 | -2.30995288567101 |
| 50 | 196 | 206.984486038046 | -10.9844860380460 |
| 51 | 236 | 224.192940896220 | 11.8070591037796 |
| 52 | 235 | 214.065417855659 | 20.9345821443411 |
| 53 | 229 | 222.675252447109 | 6.32474755289078 |
| 54 | 243 | 256.738013695474 | -13.7380136954740 |
| 55 | 264 | 268.357973304408 | -4.35797330440784 |
| 56 | 272 | 275.595124348774 | -3.59512434877428 |
| 57 | 237 | 240.950022441517 | -3.95002244151664 |
| 58 | 211 | 216.418700337472 | -5.41870033747205 |
| 59 | 180 | 191.302342357417 | -11.3023423574168 |
| 60 | 201 | 212.165187519305 | -11.1651875193053 |
| 61 | 204 | 211.884585973221 | -7.88458597322119 |
| 62 | 188 | 213.278482377781 | -25.2784823777809 |
| 63 | 235 | 241.844280631672 | -6.84428063167161 |
| 64 | 227 | 231.126644343170 | -4.12664434317026 |
| 65 | 234 | 222.847562357433 | 11.1524376425669 |
| 66 | 264 | 244.403573681984 | 19.5964263180161 |
| 67 | 302 | 270.925436787528 | 31.0745632124722 |
| 68 | 293 | 288.463304382644 | 4.53669561735649 |
| 69 | 259 | 253.325573114435 | 5.6744268855654 |
| 70 | 229 | 228.457242585487 | 0.54275741451346 |
| 71 | 203 | 198.766723711059 | 4.2332762889414 |
| 72 | 229 | 226.325370930041 | 2.67462906995868 |
| 73 | 242 | 232.507697921118 | 9.49230207888249 |
| 74 | 233 | 226.155470683088 | 6.84452931691163 |
| 75 | 267 | 284.984135370835 | -17.9841353708349 |
| 76 | 269 | 271.954055875775 | -2.95405587577505 |
| 77 | 270 | 274.414364054018 | -4.41436405401839 |
| 78 | 315 | 301.110875438721 | 13.8891245612785 |
| 79 | 364 | 337.481483997024 | 26.5185160029757 |
| 80 | 347 | 335.985512136356 | 11.0144878636443 |
| 81 | 312 | 297.836655531173 | 14.1633444688269 |
| 82 | 274 | 267.300437713931 | 6.69956228606935 |
| 83 | 237 | 236.992541506197 | 0.00745849380322738 |
| 84 | 278 | 266.900682035766 | 11.0993179642339 |
| 85 | 284 | 281.633930499988 | 2.36606950001197 |
| 86 | 277 | 269.967232749700 | 7.03276725030031 |
| 87 | 317 | 320.174971097687 | -3.17497109768715 |
| 88 | 313 | 321.27690151402 | -8.27690151402027 |
| 89 | 318 | 322.045741716529 | -4.04574171652934 |
| 90 | 374 | 367.951193908377 | 6.04880609162313 |
| 91 | 413 | 417.203241898457 | -4.20324189845735 |
| 92 | 405 | 394.606219282427 | 10.3937807175729 |
| 93 | 355 | 352.306636964999 | 2.69336303500091 |
| 94 | 306 | 308.449783989775 | -2.44978398977509 |
| 95 | 271 | 266.696313192658 | 4.30368680734244 |
| 96 | 306 | 309.394151440325 | -3.39415144032546 |
| 97 | 315 | 315.103159698907 | -0.103159698907120 |
| 98 | 301 | 304.405343346895 | -3.40534334689534 |
| 99 | 356 | 349.05816545036 | 6.94183454964002 |
| 100 | 348 | 349.292530352989 | -1.29253035298922 |
| 101 | 355 | 355.073171023921 | -0.0731710239210202 |
| 102 | 422 | 414.360938373299 | 7.63906162670128 |
| 103 | 465 | 462.091156275837 | 2.90884372416303 |
| 104 | 467 | 448.979717852724 | 18.0202821472757 |
| 105 | 404 | 397.635009922124 | 6.36499007787643 |
| 106 | 347 | 345.450966287891 | 1.54903371210901 |
| 107 | 305 | 304.243031112075 | 0.756968887925495 |
| 108 | 336 | 345.615225431213 | -9.61522543121265 |
| 109 | 340 | 352.616275490587 | -12.6162754905871 |
| 110 | 318 | 334.810864863463 | -16.8108648634627 |
| 111 | 362 | 386.941342201635 | -24.9413422016352 |
| 112 | 348 | 372.190810667781 | -24.1908106677807 |
| 113 | 363 | 372.090086438255 | -9.09008643825496 |
| 114 | 435 | 435.49852015535 | -0.49852015535015 |
| 115 | 491 | 478.418370094783 | 12.5816299052173 |
| 116 | 505 | 476.297754928989 | 28.7022450710107 |
| 117 | 404 | 417.219149854211 | -13.2191498542109 |
| 118 | 359 | 354.436902962756 | 4.56309703724406 |
| 119 | 310 | 311.876475452214 | -1.87647545221358 |
| 120 | 337 | 345.975115388033 | -8.97511538803315 |
| 121 | 360 | 350.643058140312 | 9.3569418596877 |
| 122 | 342 | 334.994580207105 | 7.0054197928946 |
| 123 | 406 | 390.685875425544 | 15.3141245744561 |
| 124 | 396 | 386.498865844799 | 9.50113415520133 |
| 125 | 420 | 407.130762273235 | 12.8692377267649 |
| 126 | 472 | 491.605011219988 | -19.6050112199878 |
| 127 | 548 | 543.780046558757 | 4.21995344124275 |
| 128 | 559 | 549.935327391724 | 9.06467260827571 |
| 129 | 463 | 449.63874670941 | 13.3612532905901 |
| 130 | 407 | 399.913034211776 | 7.08696578822429 |
| 131 | 362 | 348.397212667469 | 13.6027873325307 |
| 132 | 405 | 386.652084703312 | 18.3479152966877 |
| 133 | 417 | 413.916781467445 | 3.08321853255524 |
| 134 | 391 | 392.451160427231 | -1.45116042723129 |
| 135 | 419 | 460.170497130598 | -41.1704971305977 |
| 136 | 461 | 435.421755571338 | 25.5782444286623 |
| 137 | 472 | 465.095102857788 | 6.90489714221195 |
| 138 | 535 | 534.352674389893 | 0.647325610106805 |
| 139 | 622 | 616.735366186232 | 5.26463381376755 |
| 140 | 606 | 627.551069242213 | -21.5510692422125 |
| 141 | 508 | 510.133139879417 | -2.1331398794174 |
| 142 | 461 | 446.162791637766 | 14.8372083622340 |
| 143 | 390 | 395.452817969958 | -5.45281796995783 |
| 144 | 432 | 434.572452493991 | -2.57245249399091 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 145 | 447.055907793736 | 427.306081839850 | 466.805733747622 |
| 146 | 419.712252491671 | 399.132529133903 | 440.291975849439 |
| 147 | 464.867062938293 | 442.962936376519 | 486.771189500067 |
| 148 | 496.083938082045 | 472.832869325620 | 519.33500683847 |
| 149 | 507.532607460904 | 483.137451881795 | 531.927763040012 |
| 150 | 575.450839384531 | 548.708168067462 | 602.1935107016 |
| 151 | 666.592241551563 | 636.628745108619 | 696.555737994507 |
| 152 | 657.913647955733 | 627.181984104025 | 688.645311807442 |
| 153 | 550.308727275636 | 521.639727613372 | 578.9777269379 |
| 154 | 492.98528697611 | 465.015260234124 | 520.955313718097 |
| 155 | 420.207239449299 | 393.468712587961 | 446.945766310636 |
| 156 | 465.634459283957 | 443.300359438502 | 487.968559129412 |
