| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.94877810070843 |
| beta | 0.264457573588829 |
| gamma | 1 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 13 | 3826.8 | 3847.46652333828 | -20.6665233382782 |
| 14 | 3818.2 | 3812.58612823781 | 5.61387176218886 |
| 15 | 3811.4 | 3805.27815675902 | 6.12184324098416 |
| 16 | 3806.8 | 3801.10364874457 | 5.69635125542572 |
| 17 | 3810.3 | 3804.95756172977 | 5.34243827022692 |
| 18 | 3818.2 | 3813.58246489585 | 4.61753510415292 |
| 19 | 3858.9 | 3847.88707427319 | 11.0129257268072 |
| 20 | 3867.8 | 3868.79801811904 | -0.99801811903717 |
| 21 | 3872.3 | 3868.91152689762 | 3.38847310238089 |
| 22 | 3873.3 | 3864.41756566221 | 8.88243433778916 |
| 23 | 3876.7 | 3876.84934061016 | -0.149340610159925 |
| 24 | 3882.6 | 3887.29222191269 | -4.69222191268636 |
| 25 | 3883.5 | 3881.3794905313 | 2.12050946870113 |
| 26 | 3882.2 | 3881.12950734367 | 1.07049265633032 |
| 27 | 3888.1 | 3880.02270112858 | 8.07729887142432 |
| 28 | 3893.7 | 3888.63425096381 | 5.06574903619139 |
| 29 | 3901.9 | 3902.80779413922 | -0.90779413922246 |
| 30 | 3914.3 | 3914.93366863109 | -0.633668631090586 |
| 31 | 3930.3 | 3953.44356592619 | -23.1435659261888 |
| 32 | 3948.3 | 3940.99809918287 | 7.30190081713363 |
| 33 | 3971.5 | 3950.79851694274 | 20.7014830572607 |
| 34 | 3990.1 | 3968.67428694186 | 21.4257130581386 |
| 35 | 3993 | 4001.55741553316 | -8.55741553315966 |
| 36 | 3998 | 4010.90624409420 | -12.9062440941962 |
| 37 | 4015.8 | 4002.28843232084 | 13.5115676791561 |
| 38 | 4041.2 | 4020.29095933323 | 20.9090406667701 |
| 39 | 4060.7 | 4050.77480597862 | 9.92519402138396 |
| 40 | 4076.7 | 4073.83187865341 | 2.86812134659067 |
| 41 | 4103 | 4098.21928017374 | 4.7807198262617 |
| 42 | 4125.3 | 4130.01735958948 | -4.71735958948011 |
| 43 | 4139.7 | 4178.18844262100 | -38.4884426210047 |
| 44 | 4146.7 | 4162.46619561426 | -15.7661956142592 |
| 45 | 4158 | 4154.49655834073 | 3.5034416592689 |
| 46 | 4155.1 | 4154.72188833281 | 0.378111667188932 |
| 47 | 4144.8 | 4159.828803484 | -15.0288034839996 |
| 48 | 4148.2 | 4155.24402569768 | -7.04402569768263 |
| 49 | 4142.5 | 4147.10663009876 | -4.60663009876225 |
| 50 | 4142.1 | 4137.27634866624 | 4.82365133376061 |
| 51 | 4145.4 | 4136.94710886691 | 8.45289113308718 |
| 52 | 4146.3 | 4142.96740352183 | 3.3325964781734 |
| 53 | 4143.5 | 4152.89200115352 | -9.39200115352196 |
| 54 | 4149.2 | 4152.21907764142 | -3.01907764141743 |
| 55 | 4158.9 | 4182.14579974345 | -23.2457997434476 |
| 56 | 4166.1 | 4167.60261032765 | -1.50261032764593 |
| 57 | 4179.1 | 4163.23873231294 | 15.8612676870607 |
| 58 | 4194.4 | 4167.17968326724 | 27.2203167327561 |
| 59 | 4211.7 | 4195.86169141356 | 15.8383085864371 |
| 60 | 4226.3 | 4227.74430753045 | -1.44430753044799 |
| 61 | 4235.8 | 4233.04407960619 | 2.75592039380808 |
| 62 | 4243.6 | 4240.43664769167 | 3.16335230832556 |
| 63 | 4258.7 | 4247.99775743772 | 10.7022425622763 |
| 64 | 4278.2 | 4265.70116933602 | 12.4988306639816 |
| 65 | 4298 | 4295.98162233503 | 2.01837766496828 |
| 66 | 4315.1 | 4321.82695392218 | -6.72695392218247 |
| 67 | 4334.3 | 4362.69599795859 | -28.3959979585907 |
| 68 | 4356 | 4357.9570673634 | -1.95706736340071 |
| 69 | 4374 | 4367.07687241394 | 6.92312758606477 |
| 70 | 4395.5 | 4373.28554728340 | 22.2144527166038 |
| 71 | 4417.8 | 4405.80726240786 | 11.9927375921388 |
| 72 | 4432.8 | 4441.84042947121 | -9.04042947120615 |
| 73 | 4446.3 | 4446.49322031745 | -0.193220317454688 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 74 | 4456.56236578211 | 4432.2305628018 | 4480.89416876242 |
| 75 | 4466.12237425687 | 4428.16446547746 | 4504.08028303627 |
| 76 | 4475.70135942832 | 4423.96205941843 | 4527.44065943822 |
| 77 | 4492.73870637014 | 4426.5283009389 | 4558.94911180139 |
| 78 | 4515.09613555611 | 4433.57959006340 | 4596.61268104882 |
| 79 | 4562.92111935879 | 4464.77897652941 | 4661.06326218817 |
| 80 | 4594.67828075623 | 4479.34006847531 | 4710.01649303716 |
| 81 | 4614.19085856373 | 4481.15137181569 | 4747.23034531176 |
| 82 | 4620.23815838518 | 4469.17886875643 | 4771.29744801392 |
| 83 | 4631.50858652224 | 4461.61070562862 | 4801.40646741586 |
| 84 | 4652.90899197386 | 4463.11975097493 | 4842.6982329728 |
| 85 | 4666.31048846046 | 4457.69204391334 | 4874.92893300759 |
