| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.570561730922535 |
| beta | 0.0317962765371711 |
| gamma | 1 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 13 | 1505713 | 1167726.14903846 | 337986.850961538 |
| 14 | 1415151 | 1277413.81662595 | 137737.183374055 |
| 15 | 1545021 | 1495210.64589795 | 49810.3541020476 |
| 16 | 1681193 | 1665166.39602192 | 16026.6039780800 |
| 17 | 1457973 | 1459501.18165776 | -1528.18165776460 |
| 18 | 1638575 | 1632388.07120978 | 6186.92879022006 |
| 19 | 1688972 | 1665078.6075113 | 23893.3924886987 |
| 20 | 1563924 | 1675604.82540275 | -111680.825402748 |
| 21 | 1596359 | 1537761.66519362 | 58597.3348063775 |
| 22 | 1722061 | 1709511.51434114 | 12549.4856588582 |
| 23 | 1549332 | 1618822.22579524 | -69490.2257952369 |
| 24 | 2264959 | 1878657.7939676 | 386301.206032401 |
| 25 | 1420268 | 2606118.88249658 | -1185850.88249658 |
| 26 | 1415099 | 1748078.10687168 | -332979.106871677 |
| 27 | 1597279 | 1638713.39982424 | -41434.3998242447 |
| 28 | 1605693 | 1719615.32194655 | -113922.321946545 |
| 29 | 1575400 | 1407424.99918752 | 167975.000812479 |
| 30 | 1654752 | 1658569.63649736 | -3817.63649735716 |
| 31 | 1553966 | 1671206.83851959 | -117240.838519592 |
| 32 | 1570959 | 1518477.14217451 | 52481.8578254941 |
| 33 | 1642414 | 1525891.71588907 | 116522.284110931 |
| 34 | 1664774 | 1690436.30587636 | -25662.3058763589 |
| 35 | 1551560 | 1521540.30152900 | 30019.6984710027 |
| 36 | 2304365 | 2014518.45271201 | 289846.547287987 |
| 37 | 1644081 | 1990685.82219720 | -346604.822197204 |
| 38 | 1425600 | 1971849.78273390 | -546249.782733903 |
| 39 | 1569344 | 1856239.61547470 | -286895.615474703 |
| 40 | 1456489 | 1751746.75192061 | -295257.751920608 |
| 41 | 1610786 | 1439646.20894040 | 171139.791059598 |
| 42 | 1601519 | 1601374.97468156 | 144.025318435859 |
| 43 | 1496600 | 1550188.91024660 | -53588.9102466037 |
| 44 | 1486452 | 1490441.37032732 | -3989.37032732344 |
| 45 | 1637939 | 1475891.92702859 | 162047.072971410 |
| 46 | 1605759 | 1588932.50880658 | 16826.4911934154 |
| 47 | 1504221 | 1452542.58394701 | 51678.4160529862 |
| 48 | 1993384 | 2054202.50385244 | -60818.503852441 |
| 49 | 1507620 | 1535360.10774845 | -27740.1077484528 |
| 50 | 1477037 | 1596888.51312674 | -119851.513126736 |
| 51 | 1679184 | 1827844.71895860 | -148660.718958596 |
| 52 | 1504731 | 1793043.43084426 | -288312.430844256 |
| 53 | 1570141 | 1679731.63104864 | -109590.631048643 |
| 54 | 1734191 | 1597298.35285094 | 136892.647149056 |
| 55 | 1657498 | 1592985.81497687 | 64512.1850231325 |
| 56 | 1652164 | 1615989.71519410 | 36174.2848059025 |
| 57 | 1610941 | 1690454.69205969 | -79513.6920596892 |
| 58 | 1813765 | 1593720.51085287 | 220044.489147129 |
| 59 | 1711573 | 1582346.31724677 | 129226.682753228 |
| 60 | 2165466 | 2175449.25655232 | -9983.2565523237 |
| 61 | 1492778 | 1696246.30475591 | -203468.304755910 |
| 62 | 1385488 | 1611196.41682829 | -225708.416828286 |
| 63 | 1470589 | 1760704.17413304 | -290115.174133042 |
| 64 | 1514657 | 1573977.59322021 | -59320.5932202067 |
| 65 | 1641395 | 1660979.05849022 | -19584.0584902212 |
| 66 | 1606185 | 1730291.61965435 | -124106.619654351 |
| 67 | 1581162 | 1535787.14868838 | 45374.8513116229 |
| 68 | 1517847 | 1525162.65604943 | -7315.65604942641 |
| 69 | 1630080 | 1513804.12551696 | 116275.874483040 |
| 70 | 1604623 | 1649644.7213236 | -45021.7213236007 |
| 71 | 1548973 | 1435447.48459165 | 113525.515408353 |
| 72 | 2125558 | 1946939.25114092 | 178618.748859081 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 73 | 1482806.4579273 | 1037968.42248131 | 1927644.49337329 |
| 74 | 1498539.26782313 | 982340.851678332 | 2014737.68396793 |
| 75 | 1747505.85174281 | 1164983.20338478 | 2330028.50010084 |
| 76 | 1829020.07373594 | 1183553.86624906 | 2474486.28122281 |
| 77 | 1971608.32838715 | 1265582.10616038 | 2677634.55061392 |
| 78 | 2012240.44532605 | 1247386.14912835 | 2777094.74152375 |
| 79 | 1968611.43068087 | 1146210.01835388 | 2791012.84300785 |
| 80 | 1915930.42442828 | 1036937.11023477 | 2794923.73862179 |
| 81 | 1968413.5393073 | 1033540.37209177 | 2903286.70652283 |
| 82 | 1973127.44312561 | 982900.138758262 | 2963354.74749296 |
| 83 | 1858004.13341973 | 812802.560912754 | 2903205.70592671 |
| 84 | 2335916.56554240 | 1236004.41836064 | 3435828.71272416 |
