| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.932952155499902 |
| beta | 0.189496457771257 |
| gamma | 1 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 13 | 1.25 | 1.55613514957265 | -0.306135149572649 |
| 14 | 1.26 | 1.24174026172699 | 0.0182597382730081 |
| 15 | 1.26 | 1.20655177680316 | 0.0534482231968443 |
| 16 | 1.22 | 1.15364163644576 | 0.066358363554239 |
| 17 | 1.01 | 0.95034094268985 | 0.0596590573101498 |
| 18 | 1.03 | 0.98092064214776 | 0.0490793578522398 |
| 19 | 1.01 | 1.22114011659760 | -0.211140116597604 |
| 20 | 1.01 | 0.970426238588068 | 0.0395737614119325 |
| 21 | 1 | 0.55102937009633 | 0.44897062990367 |
| 22 | 0.98 | 0.904620883616097 | 0.0753791163839029 |
| 23 | 1 | 1.03257908172319 | -0.0325790817231904 |
| 24 | 1.01 | 1.08155775357132 | -0.0715577535713181 |
| 25 | 1 | 1.03182804490521 | -0.0318280449052057 |
| 26 | 1 | 1.07706301749370 | -0.0770630174936968 |
| 27 | 1 | 1.02041453445696 | -0.0204145344569628 |
| 28 | 1.03 | 0.951513552203646 | 0.0784864477963538 |
| 29 | 1.26 | 0.81327672442798 | 0.44672327557202 |
| 30 | 1.43 | 1.3268871123142 | 0.103112887685801 |
| 31 | 1.61 | 1.73225041648978 | -0.122250416489781 |
| 32 | 1.76 | 1.72917139777662 | 0.0308286022233808 |
| 33 | 1.93 | 1.47541402205550 | 0.454585977944496 |
| 34 | 2.16 | 1.95653775495551 | 0.203462245044488 |
| 35 | 2.28 | 2.36673885446528 | -0.0867388544652825 |
| 36 | 2.5 | 2.52298648122298 | -0.0229864812229752 |
| 37 | 2.63 | 2.69023307474055 | -0.0602330747405508 |
| 38 | 2.79 | 2.86991068644488 | -0.0799106864448795 |
| 39 | 3 | 2.97787626093149 | 0.0221237390685056 |
| 40 | 3.04 | 3.12628557745283 | -0.0862855774528297 |
| 41 | 3.26 | 3.00087661391343 | 0.259123386086571 |
| 42 | 3.5 | 3.42512374325458 | 0.0748762567454193 |
| 43 | 3.62 | 3.89273831067774 | -0.272738310677737 |
| 44 | 3.78 | 3.83662479299525 | -0.0566247929952528 |
| 45 | 4 | 3.5913285059267 | 0.4086714940733 |
| 46 | 4.16 | 4.06630054730212 | 0.0936994526978783 |
| 47 | 4.29 | 4.38875739711791 | -0.0987573971179065 |
| 48 | 4.49 | 4.57005852830135 | -0.080058528301354 |
| 49 | 4.59 | 4.70346426753753 | -0.113464267537532 |
| 50 | 4.79 | 4.84465151794328 | -0.0546515179432818 |
| 51 | 4.94 | 4.99998060954632 | -0.0599806095463196 |
| 52 | 4.99 | 5.06696329871044 | -0.0769632987104432 |
| 53 | 5.24 | 4.97750001053091 | 0.262499989469089 |
| 54 | 5.25 | 5.39723043875835 | -0.147230438758349 |
| 55 | 5.25 | 5.59974324735948 | -0.349743247359479 |
| 56 | 5.25 | 5.438083932831 | -0.188083932830997 |
| 57 | 5.25 | 5.0299050405674 | 0.220094959432600 |
| 58 | 5.24 | 5.20305271218159 | 0.0369472878184061 |
| 59 | 5.25 | 5.34485212237757 | -0.094852122377568 |
| 60 | 5.26 | 5.41693425669915 | -0.156934256699154 |
| 61 | 5.26 | 5.34867173961789 | -0.0886717396178938 |
| 62 | 5.25 | 5.39360850247778 | -0.143608502477775 |
| 63 | 5.25 | 5.32653687580434 | -0.0765368758043357 |
| 64 | 5.25 | 5.23495690327119 | 0.0150430967288102 |
| 65 | 5.26 | 5.12837957159404 | 0.131620428405959 |
| 66 | 5.02 | 5.24968385364721 | -0.229683853647209 |
| 67 | 4.94 | 5.19826625598185 | -0.258266255981847 |
| 68 | 4.76 | 4.98553455906218 | -0.225534559062178 |
| 69 | 4.49 | 4.41590765348667 | 0.0740923465133312 |
| 70 | 4.24 | 4.26087436358426 | -0.0208743635842579 |
| 71 | 3.94 | 4.14998186561459 | -0.209981865614586 |
| 72 | 2.98 | 3.90022685977977 | -0.920226859779767 |
| 73 | 2.61 | 2.77921823239927 | -0.169218232399271 |
| 74 | 2.28 | 2.38587818868410 | -0.105878188684096 |
| 75 | 1.98 | 2.00572714136778 | -0.0257271413677773 |
| 76 | 2 | 1.62389616393725 | 0.376103836062746 |
| 77 | 2.01 | 1.58202552582611 | 0.427974474173886 |
| 78 | 2 | 1.72802008633794 | 0.271979913662062 |
| 79 | 1.81 | 2.00383490291067 | -0.193834902910672 |
| 80 | 0.97 | 1.72592056673923 | -0.75592056673923 |
| 81 | 0.39 | 0.460302090557214 | -0.0703020905572139 |
| 82 | 0.16 | -0.0825954090470405 | 0.242595409047040 |
| 83 | 0.15 | -0.160567141812935 | 0.310567141812935 |
| 84 | 0.22 | -0.0804714551562155 | 0.300471455156215 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 85 | 0.095358954104449 | -0.369196950475911 | 0.55991485868481 |
| 86 | 0.0016869236061966 | -0.692280948000863 | 0.695654795213256 |
| 87 | -0.118043874765269 | -1.03390272773684 | 0.797814978206305 |
| 88 | -0.288115419315582 | -1.42869454772222 | 0.852463709091057 |
| 89 | -0.583071609198795 | -1.95473184411114 | 0.788588625713548 |
| 90 | -0.828154427966192 | -2.43870745679227 | 0.782398600859889 |
| 91 | -0.866737945478451 | -2.72461280360688 | 0.991136912649974 |
| 92 | -0.996654140072004 | -3.11051223698863 | 1.11720395684462 |
| 93 | -1.37257951964057 | -3.75112166124944 | 1.00596262196830 |
| 94 | -1.67799450997325 | -4.32985978736562 | 0.973870767419127 |
| 95 | -1.86971259109484 | -4.80342469497206 | 1.06399951278237 |
| 96 | -2.02691739513862 | -5.25085674953783 | 1.19702195926059 |
