| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.99995743816477 |
| beta | 0 |
| gamma | 0 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 2 | 93.36 | 93.89 | -0.530000000000001 |
| 3 | 92.25 | 93.3600225577727 | -1.11002255777267 |
| 4 | 91.07 | 92.2500472445972 | -1.18004724459722 |
| 5 | 90.93 | 91.0700502249764 | -0.140050224976378 |
| 6 | 90.68 | 90.9300059607946 | -0.250005960794596 |
| 7 | 90.65 | 90.6800106407125 | -0.0300106407125185 |
| 8 | 90.6 | 90.650001277308 | -0.0500012773079561 |
| 9 | 90.02 | 90.6000021281461 | -0.58000212814612 |
| 10 | 89.74 | 90.020024685955 | -0.280024685955013 |
| 11 | 89.31 | 89.7400119183645 | -0.430011918364528 |
| 12 | 89.16 | 89.3100183020964 | -0.150018302096427 |
| 13 | 89.15 | 89.1600063850542 | -0.0100063850542398 |
| 14 | 88.98 | 89.1500004258901 | -0.170000425890109 |
| 15 | 88.25 | 88.9800072355301 | -0.73000723553011 |
| 16 | 87.36 | 88.2500310704477 | -0.890031070447677 |
| 17 | 87.13 | 87.3600378813558 | -0.23003788135577 |
| 18 | 86.93 | 87.1300097908344 | -0.200009790834386 |
| 19 | 86.93 | 86.9300085127838 | -8.51278376501341e-06 |
| 20 | 86.93 | 86.9300000003623 | -3.6231995181879e-10 |
| 21 | 86.98 | 86.93 | 0.049999999999983 |
| 22 | 86.16 | 86.9799978719083 | -0.819997871908257 |
| 23 | 85.88 | 86.1600349006143 | -0.280034900614311 |
| 24 | 85.91 | 85.8800119187993 | 0.0299880812006990 |
| 25 | 85.91 | 85.9099987236522 | 1.27634777413732e-06 |
| 26 | 85.6 | 85.9099999999457 | -0.309999999945674 |
| 27 | 84.9 | 85.600013194169 | -0.700013194168918 |
| 28 | 83.67 | 84.9000297938462 | -1.23002979384623 |
| 29 | 83.41 | 83.6700523523254 | -0.260052352325417 |
| 30 | 83.33 | 83.4100110683054 | -0.0800110683053674 |
| 31 | 83.32 | 83.3300034054179 | -0.0100034054179048 |
| 32 | 83.3 | 83.3200004257633 | -0.0200004257632855 |
| 33 | 82.73 | 83.3000008512548 | -0.570000851254818 |
| 34 | 82.2 | 82.7300242602823 | -0.530024260282303 |
| 35 | 81.7 | 82.2000225588052 | -0.500022558805242 |
| 36 | 81.52 | 81.7000212818778 | -0.180021281877757 |
| 37 | 81.52 | 81.5200076620361 | -7.66203612556637e-06 |
| 38 | 81.55 | 81.5200000003261 | 0.0299999996738904 |
| 39 | 81.89 | 81.549998723145 | 0.340001276855034 |
| 40 | 81.8 | 81.8899855289217 | -0.0899855289216731 |
| 41 | 81.84 | 81.8000038299493 | 0.0399961700507419 |
| 42 | 81.77 | 81.8399982976896 | -0.0699982976896081 |
| 43 | 81.77 | 81.770002979256 | -2.97925602410487e-06 |
| 44 | 82.98 | 81.7700000001268 | 1.20999999987320 |
| 45 | 83.13 | 82.9799485001794 | 0.150051499820606 |
| 46 | 82.84 | 83.1299936135328 | -0.289993613532772 |
| 47 | 82.8 | 82.8400123426604 | -0.040012342660404 |
| 48 | 82.8 | 82.8000017029987 | -1.70299874469038e-06 |
| 49 | 82.8 | 82.8000000000725 | -7.24895699022454e-11 |
| 50 | 82.98 | 82.8 | 0.180000000000007 |
| 51 | 81.91 | 82.9799923388697 | -1.06999233886967 |
| 52 | 81.64 | 81.9100455408376 | -0.270045540837614 |
| 53 | 81.4 | 81.6400114936338 | -0.240011493633816 |
| 54 | 81.21 | 81.4000102153297 | -0.190010215329664 |
| 55 | 81.21 | 81.2100080871835 | -8.08718347400372e-06 |
| 56 | 81.23 | 81.2100000003442 | 0.0199999996558091 |
| 57 | 81.01 | 81.2299991487633 | -0.219999148763307 |
| 58 | 80.55 | 81.0100093635675 | -0.460009363567536 |
| 59 | 80.5 | 80.5500195788427 | -0.0500195788427362 |
| 60 | 80.54 | 80.500002128925 | 0.0399978710749451 |
| 61 | 80.54 | 80.5399982976172 | 1.7023827894036e-06 |
| 62 | 80.72 | 80.5399999999276 | 0.180000000072440 |
| 63 | 80.63 | 80.7199923388696 | -0.0899923388696493 |
| 64 | 80.36 | 80.630003830239 | -0.270003830239091 |
| 65 | 79.88 | 80.3600114918585 | -0.480011491858548 |
| 66 | 79.66 | 79.88002043017 | -0.220020430170024 |
| 67 | 79.66 | 79.6600093644733 | -9.36447329991097e-06 |
| 68 | 79.13 | 79.6600000003986 | -0.530000000398573 |
| 69 | 78.81 | 79.1300225577727 | -0.320022557772688 |
| 70 | 78.67 | 78.8100136207474 | -0.140013620747368 |
| 71 | 78.43 | 78.6700059592366 | -0.240005959236640 |
| 72 | 78.13 | 78.4300102150941 | -0.300010215094105 |
| 73 | 78.13 | 78.1300127689853 | -1.27689853428592e-05 |
| 74 | 78.07 | 78.1300000005435 | -0.0600000005434822 |
| 75 | 76.94 | 78.0700025537101 | -1.13000255371013 |
| 76 | 74.97 | 76.9400480949825 | -1.97004809498250 |
| 77 | 75 | 74.9700838488624 | 0.0299161511375843 |
| 78 | 75.1 | 74.9999987267137 | 0.100001273286296 |
| 79 | 75.1 | 75.0999957437623 | 4.25623771604933e-06 |
| 80 | 75.02 | 75.0999999998188 | -0.0799999998188525 |
| 81 | 73.87 | 75.0200034049468 | -1.15000340494680 |
| 82 | 73.18 | 73.8700489462554 | -0.69004894625543 |
| 83 | 72.55 | 73.1800293697496 | -0.630029369749565 |
| 84 | 72.42 | 72.5500268152062 | -0.130026815206222 |
| 85 | 72.4 | 72.4200055341799 | -0.0200055341798731 |
| 86 | 72.45 | 72.4000008514723 | 0.0499991485277462 |
| 87 | 71.42 | 72.4499978719445 | -1.02999787194447 |
| 88 | 70.89 | 71.4200438385997 | -0.53004383859971 |
| 89 | 70.42 | 70.8900225596385 | -0.470022559638522 |
| 90 | 69.57 | 70.4200200050227 | -0.850020005022742 |
| 91 | 69.57 | 69.5700361784114 | -3.61784113920294e-05 |
| 92 | 69.44 | 69.5700000015398 | -0.130000001539813 |
| 93 | 68.25 | 69.4400055330386 | -1.19000553303863 |
| 94 | 66.86 | 68.2500506488194 | -1.39005064881943 |
| 95 | 66.5 | 66.8600591631067 | -0.360059163106683 |
| 96 | 66.46 | 66.5000153247788 | -0.0400153247787784 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 97 | 66.4600017031257 | 65.5931755140823 | 67.326827892169 |
| 98 | 66.4600017031257 | 65.2341504378777 | 67.6858529683736 |
| 99 | 66.4600017031257 | 64.9586573032598 | 67.9613461029915 |
| 100 | 66.4600017031257 | 64.7264046653147 | 68.1935987409367 |
| 101 | 66.4600017031257 | 64.5217854169477 | 68.3982179893036 |
| 102 | 66.4600017031257 | 64.3367951529982 | 68.5832082532531 |
| 103 | 66.4600017031257 | 64.1666788438224 | 68.7533245624289 |
| 104 | 66.4600017031257 | 64.0083383046345 | 68.9116651016168 |
| 105 | 66.4600017031257 | 63.8596215189988 | 69.0603818872525 |
| 106 | 66.4600017031257 | 63.7189616113907 | 69.2010417948606 |
| 107 | 66.4600017031257 | 63.5851757141314 | 69.33482769212 |
| 108 | 66.4600017031257 | 63.4573448546837 | 69.4626585515676 |
