Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
Parameter | Value |
alpha | 0.999398485780202 |
beta | 0.00154973746659664 |
gamma | 0.00817138256199028 |
Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
13 | 0.74 | 0.734842414529915 | 0.00515758547008516 |
14 | 0.75 | 0.75002091137562 | -2.0911375620436e-05 |
15 | 0.75 | 0.750023993927462 | -2.39939274615519e-05 |
16 | 0.75 | 0.750023958619739 | -2.39586197388064e-05 |
17 | 0.75 | 0.750023921491264 | -2.39214912640673e-05 |
18 | 0.75 | 0.750023884419199 | -2.38844191986498e-05 |
19 | 0.75 | 0.750440514071252 | -0.000440514071251785 |
20 | 0.75 | 0.74960674907606 | 0.000393250923939936 |
21 | 0.75 | 0.750023523290333 | -2.35232903325056e-05 |
22 | 0.75 | 0.750023737552953 | -2.37375529525963e-05 |
23 | 0.75 | 0.750023700916987 | -2.37009169874458e-05 |
24 | 0.75 | 0.750023664186845 | -2.36641868449627e-05 |
25 | 0.75 | 0.750023652864112 | -2.36528641124334e-05 |
26 | 0.76 | 0.76002356541968 | -2.35654196800716e-05 |
27 | 0.76 | 0.760023554307045 | -2.35543070453703e-05 |
28 | 0.76 | 0.760023517834651 | -2.35178346509324e-05 |
29 | 0.76 | 0.760023481388175 | -2.3481388174873e-05 |
30 | 0.76 | 0.760023444998153 | -2.34449981534324e-05 |
31 | 0.76 | 0.760440073283193 | -0.000440073283192954 |
32 | 0.76 | 0.759606315115817 | 0.000393684884183121 |
33 | 0.76 | 0.760023083859663 | -2.30838596626537e-05 |
34 | 0.76 | 0.760023300847061 | -2.33008470613694e-05 |
35 | 0.76 | 0.76002326489034 | -2.32648903406574e-05 |
36 | 0.76 | 0.760023228835928 | -2.32288359277577e-05 |
37 | 0.76 | 0.76002321818775 | -2.32181877504178e-05 |
38 | 0.78 | 0.770023131417327 | 0.009976868582673 |
39 | 0.78 | 0.780032593887485 | -3.25938874846665e-05 |
40 | 0.78 | 0.780038564255358 | -3.85642553576426e-05 |
41 | 0.78 | 0.780038508118105 | -3.85081181053515e-05 |
42 | 0.78 | 0.780038448442761 | -3.84484427609078e-05 |
43 | 0.78 | 0.780455051428388 | -0.000455051428388198 |
44 | 0.78 | 0.779621276193467 | 0.00037872380653281 |
45 | 0.78 | 0.780038015608657 | -3.8015608656905e-05 |
46 | 0.78 | 0.780038211499479 | -3.82114994789129e-05 |
47 | 0.78 | 0.780038152437614 | -3.81524376142917e-05 |
48 | 0.78 | 0.780038093311392 | -3.80933113920401e-05 |
49 | 0.78 | 0.780038059627034 | -3.80596270337374e-05 |
50 | 0.78 | 0.790037999008657 | -0.0100379990086565 |
51 | 0.78 | 0.780028394295395 | -2.83942953950289e-05 |
52 | 0.78 | 0.780022378583233 | -2.23785832327295e-05 |
53 | 0.78 | 0.780022340334259 | -2.23403342589634e-05 |
54 | 0.78 | 0.780022305710441 | -2.23057104408175e-05 |
55 | 0.78 | 0.780438931665105 | -0.000438931665104558 |
56 | 0.78 | 0.779605187556237 | 0.000394812443763382 |
57 | 0.78 | 0.780021945761782 | -2.19457617823826e-05 |
58 | 0.78 | 0.780022168600366 | -2.21686003664123e-05 |
59 | 0.78 | 0.780022134403291 | -2.21344032913517e-05 |
60 | 0.78 | 0.780022100100842 | -2.21001008420263e-05 |
61 | 0.78 | 0.78002209120166 | -2.20912016595243e-05 |
62 | 0.8 | 0.790022006178277 | 0.00997799382172326 |
63 | 0.8 | 0.800031470392236 | -3.14703922359438e-05 |
64 | 0.8 | 0.800037442500757 | -3.74425007569901e-05 |
65 | 0.8 | 0.800037388102172 | -3.73881021722422e-05 |
66 | 0.8 | 0.80003733016256 | -3.733016255969e-05 |
67 | 0.8 | 0.800453930785277 | -0.000453930785276779 |
68 | 0.8 | 0.799620169576277 | 0.000379830423722916 |
69 | 0.8 | 0.800036898420833 | -3.68984208327650e-05 |
70 | 0.8 | 0.800037100130354 | -3.71001303544061e-05 |
71 | 0.8 | 0.800037042795801 | -3.70427958008568e-05 |
72 | 0.8 | 0.800036985389237 | -3.69853892373539e-05 |
73 | 0.8 | 0.80003695342162 | -3.69534216195788e-05 |
74 | 0.81 | 0.810036894518078 | -3.6894518078201e-05 |
75 | 0.81 | 0.81003676442704 | -3.67644270402590e-05 |
76 | 0.81 | 0.810036756592016 | -3.67565920158519e-05 |
77 | 0.81 | 0.81003669968837 | -3.66996883707227e-05 |
78 | 0.81 | 0.810036642813488 | -3.66428134876973e-05 |
79 | 0.81 | 0.810453242453454 | -0.000453242453453795 |
80 | 0.81 | 0.809619488455737 | 0.000380511544263107 |
81 | 0.81 | 0.810036212213141 | -3.62122131412068e-05 |
82 | 0.81 | 0.81003641702972 | -3.64170297201261e-05 |
83 | 0.81 | 0.810036360756299 | -3.63607562987589e-05 |
84 | 0.81 | 0.81003630440672 | -3.63044067202001e-05 |
Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
85 | 0.810036273494322 | 0.805834890158502 | 0.814237656830142 |
86 | 0.820072523500502 | 0.814128055302581 | 0.826016991698424 |
87 | 0.82010870059385 | 0.812823334826325 | 0.827394066361375 |
88 | 0.820144926870763 | 0.811726419684128 | 0.828563434057397 |
89 | 0.820181153177788 | 0.810761975214938 | 0.829600331140637 |
90 | 0.820217379484829 | 0.809891412712406 | 0.830543346257252 |
91 | 0.820670260170679 | 0.809508478198035 | 0.831832042143323 |
92 | 0.82028984439825 | 0.8083483051658 | 0.8322313836307 |
93 | 0.820326058413472 | 0.807650466838463 | 0.83300164998848 |
94 | 0.820362284712948 | 0.806990813249453 | 0.833733756176443 |
95 | 0.820398511019974 | 0.806363649927204 | 0.834433372112744 |
96 | 0.820434737327003 | 0.80576456565641 | 0.835104908997596 |