Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
Parameter | Value |
alpha | 1 |
beta | 0.313819645669102 |
gamma | 0 |
Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
3 | 0.60039 | 0.57093 | 0.0294599999999999 |
4 | 0.61342 | 0.591235126761412 | 0.0221848732385882 |
5 | 0.6348 | 0.611227175820359 | 0.0235728241796407 |
6 | 0.634 | 0.640004791151834 | -0.00600479115183428 |
7 | 0.62915 | 0.637320369720249 | -0.00817036972024876 |
8 | 0.62168 | 0.629906347189655 | -0.00822634718965465 |
9 | 0.61328 | 0.619854757829446 | -0.00657475782944617 |
10 | 0.6089 | 0.609391469657049 | -0.000491469657049382 |
11 | 0.60857 | 0.604857236823417 | 0.00371276317658309 |
12 | 0.62672 | 0.605692374847946 | 0.0210276251520545 |
13 | 0.62291 | 0.630441256722426 | -0.00753125672242605 |
14 | 0.62393 | 0.624267800406351 | -0.000337800406351119 |
15 | 0.61838 | 0.625181792002523 | -0.00680179200252318 |
16 | 0.62012 | 0.617497256046377 | 0.00262274395362350 |
17 | 0.61659 | 0.620060324624583 | -0.00347032462458341 |
18 | 0.6116 | 0.61544126858054 | -0.00384126858053979 |
19 | 0.61573 | 0.609245803035675 | 0.006484196964325 |
20 | 0.61407 | 0.615410671429468 | -0.00134067142946814 |
21 | 0.62823 | 0.613329942396514 | 0.0149000576034862 |
22 | 0.64405 | 0.632165873194089 | 0.0118841268059111 |
23 | 0.6387 | 0.651715345657407 | -0.0130153456574066 |
24 | 0.63633 | 0.642280874494939 | -0.00595087449493859 |
25 | 0.63059 | 0.638043373169516 | -0.00745337316951555 |
26 | 0.62994 | 0.629964358242419 | -2.43582424185318e-05 |
27 | 0.63709 | 0.629306714147414 | 0.00778328585258625 |
28 | 0.64217 | 0.638899262155814 | 0.0032707378441863 |
29 | 0.65711 | 0.645005683947153 | 0.0121043160528472 |
30 | 0.66977 | 0.663744256121924 | 0.00602574387807597 |
31 | 0.68255 | 0.678295252930635 | 0.00425474706936535 |
32 | 0.68902 | 0.692410476148354 | -0.00339047614835453 |
33 | 0.71322 | 0.697816478124828 | 0.0154035218751717 |
34 | 0.70224 | 0.726850405901751 | -0.024610405901751 |
35 | 0.70045 | 0.70814717704189 | -0.00769717704189066 |
36 | 0.69919 | 0.703941651669952 | -0.00475165166995228 |
37 | 0.69693 | 0.701190490026545 | -0.00426049002654472 |
38 | 0.69763 | 0.697593464556038 | 3.65354439620935e-05 |
39 | 0.69278 | 0.698304930096116 | -0.00552493009611643 |
40 | 0.70196 | 0.691721098491006 | 0.0102389015089935 |
41 | 0.69215 | 0.7041142669346 | -0.0119642669345997 |
42 | 0.6769 | 0.690549644924493 | -0.0136496449244932 |
43 | 0.67124 | 0.67101611819078 | 0.000223881809220394 |
44 | 0.66532 | 0.665426376700821 | -0.000106376700820809 |
45 | 0.67157 | 0.659472993602262 | 0.0120970063977381 |
46 | 0.66428 | 0.669519271863657 | -0.00523927186365691 |
47 | 0.66576 | 0.66058508542384 | 0.00517491457616004 |
48 | 0.66942 | 0.663689075282498 | 0.00573092471750158 |
49 | 0.6813 | 0.669147552046701 | 0.0121524479532990 |
50 | 0.69144 | 0.684841228957418 | 0.00659877104258255 |
51 | 0.69862 | 0.697052052947852 | 0.00156794705214769 |
52 | 0.695 | 0.704724105536185 | -0.0097241055361853 |
53 | 0.69867 | 0.69805249018237 | 0.000617509817629425 |
54 | 0.68968 | 0.701916276894536 | -0.0122362768945363 |
55 | 0.69233 | 0.689086292815184 | 0.00324370718481615 |
56 | 0.68293 | 0.692754231854577 | -0.00982423185457715 |
57 | 0.68399 | 0.680271194895003 | 0.00371880510499722 |
58 | 0.66895 | 0.682498228995365 | -0.0135482289953653 |
59 | 0.68756 | 0.663206528572596 | 0.0243534714274040 |
60 | 0.68527 | 0.689459126346756 | -0.00418912634675639 |
61 | 0.6776 | 0.685854496200954 | -0.00825449620095431 |
62 | 0.68137 | 0.675594073127994 | 0.00577592687200623 |
63 | 0.67933 | 0.681176672452378 | -0.00184667245237757 |
64 | 0.67922 | 0.678557150357705 | 0.000662849642294572 |
65 | 0.68598 | 0.678655165597582 | 0.00732483440241771 |
66 | 0.68297 | 0.687713842534334 | -0.00474384253433391 |
67 | 0.68935 | 0.683215131551099 | 0.00613486844890088 |
68 | 0.69463 | 0.69152037379396 | 0.00310962620604016 |
69 | 0.6833 | 0.697776235588103 | -0.0144762355881026 |
70 | 0.68666 | 0.681903308465222 | 0.0047566915347782 |
71 | 0.68782 | 0.686756051717223 | 0.00106394828277678 |
72 | 0.67669 | 0.688249939590334 | -0.0115599395903344 |
73 | 0.67511 | 0.67349220344414 | 0.00161779655586047 |
74 | 0.67254 | 0.672419899786064 | 0.000120100213935714 |
75 | 0.67397 | 0.669887589592646 | 0.00408241040735358 |
76 | 0.67286 | 0.672598730180158 | 0.000261269819842092 |
77 | 0.66341 | 0.671570721782445 | -0.00816072178244476 |
78 | 0.668 | 0.659559726964274 | 0.00844027303572614 |
79 | 0.68021 | 0.666798450457696 | 0.0134115495423041 |
80 | 0.67934 | 0.683217258182935 | -0.00387725818293527 |
81 | 0.68136 | 0.681130498393799 | 0.000229501606200944 |
82 | 0.67562 | 0.683222520506537 | -0.00760252050653742 |
83 | 0.6744 | 0.675096700214984 | -0.000696700214983803 |
84 | 0.67766 | 0.67365806200038 | 0.00400193799962001 |
85 | 0.68887 | 0.67817394876541 | 0.0106960512345895 |
86 | 0.69614 | 0.692740579773908 | 0.00339942022609208 |
87 | 0.70896 | 0.70107738462474 | 0.00788261537525958 |
88 | 0.72064 | 0.71637110418875 | 0.00426889581124967 |
Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
89 | 0.729390767559635 | 0.710603854339748 | 0.748177680779522 |
90 | 0.73814153511927 | 0.707122514750582 | 0.769160555487957 |
91 | 0.746892302678905 | 0.703335292179336 | 0.790449313178473 |
92 | 0.75564307023854 | 0.698831387107637 | 0.812454753369442 |
93 | 0.764393837798175 | 0.693522399482675 | 0.835265276113674 |
94 | 0.77314460535781 | 0.687398981185847 | 0.858890229529773 |
95 | 0.781895372917444 | 0.680476736355338 | 0.883314009479551 |
96 | 0.79064614047708 | 0.67277942458114 | 0.908512856373019 |
97 | 0.799396908036714 | 0.664332851747386 | 0.934460964326043 |
98 | 0.80814767559635 | 0.655162486076023 | 0.961132865116676 |
99 | 0.816898443155984 | 0.645292533978651 | 0.988504352333317 |
100 | 0.82564921071562 | 0.634745629104094 | 1.01655279232714 |