| Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast | ||||||||
| time | Y[t] | F[t] | 95% LB | 95% UB | p-value (H0: Y[t] = F[t]) | P(F[t]>Y[t-1]) | P(F[t]>Y[t-s]) | P(F[t]>Y[57]) |
| 45 | 246057 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 46 | 235372 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 47 | 258556 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 48 | 260993 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 49 | 254663 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 50 | 250643 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 51 | 243422 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 52 | 247105 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 53 | 248541 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 54 | 245039 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 55 | 237080 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 56 | 237085 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 57 | 225554 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 58 | 226839 | 218804.1262 | 211693.9317 | 225914.3206 | 0.0134 | 0.0314 | 0 | 0.0314 |
| 59 | 247934 | 240285.2257 | 230451.0115 | 250119.44 | 0.0637 | 0.9963 | 1e-04 | 0.9983 |
| 60 | 248333 | 241453.8855 | 228897.944 | 254009.8271 | 0.1414 | 0.1559 | 0.0011 | 0.9935 |
| 61 | 246969 | 238595.351 | 222945.8214 | 254244.8806 | 0.1471 | 0.1113 | 0.0221 | 0.9488 |
| 62 | 245098 | 231920.9893 | 213696.6802 | 250145.2984 | 0.0782 | 0.0528 | 0.022 | 0.7533 |
| 63 | 246263 | 224081.7735 | 203396.4079 | 244767.1391 | 0.0178 | 0.0232 | 0.0334 | 0.4445 |
| 64 | 255765 | 225489.4917 | 202462.8523 | 248516.1311 | 0.005 | 0.0385 | 0.0329 | 0.4978 |
| 65 | 264319 | 226795.7554 | 201625.341 | 251966.1699 | 0.0017 | 0.012 | 0.0452 | 0.5385 |
| 66 | 268347 | 223587.7669 | 196387.246 | 250788.2878 | 6e-04 | 0.0017 | 0.0611 | 0.4437 |
| 67 | 273046 | 216314.9077 | 187198.6502 | 245431.1651 | 1e-04 | 2e-04 | 0.0811 | 0.267 |
| 68 | 273963 | 215217.8353 | 184294.8738 | 246140.7969 | 1e-04 | 1e-04 | 0.0829 | 0.2562 |
| 69 | 267430 | 206566.2759 | 173922.8559 | 239209.6959 | 1e-04 | 0 | 0.1271 | 0.1271 |
| 70 | 271993 | 199690.2951 | 163987.3499 | 235393.2403 | 0 | 1e-04 | 0.0681 | 0.0778 |
| 71 | 292710 | 221329.7173 | 182871.6831 | 259787.7515 | 1e-04 | 0.0049 | 0.0876 | 0.4148 |
| 72 | 295881 | 223131.3564 | 181897.6685 | 264365.0443 | 3e-04 | 5e-04 | 0.1155 | 0.4542 |
| Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast Performance | ||||||
| time | % S.E. | PE | MAPE | Sq.E | MSE | RMSE |
| 58 | 0.0166 | 0.0367 | 0 | 64559197.4855 | 0 | 0 |
| 59 | 0.0209 | 0.0318 | 0.0343 | 58503747.711 | 61531472.5983 | 7844.1999 |
| 60 | 0.0265 | 0.0285 | 0.0323 | 47322215.7399 | 56795053.6455 | 7536.2493 |
| 61 | 0.0335 | 0.0351 | 0.033 | 70117997.6501 | 60125789.6466 | 7754.0821 |
| 62 | 0.0401 | 0.0568 | 0.0378 | 173633611.1727 | 82827353.9518 | 9100.9535 |
| 63 | 0.0471 | 0.099 | 0.048 | 492006810.3127 | 151023930.012 | 12289.1794 |
| 64 | 0.0521 | 0.1343 | 0.0603 | 916606404.9689 | 260392855.0058 | 16136.6928 |
| 65 | 0.0566 | 0.1654 | 0.0735 | 1407993882.8103 | 403842983.4814 | 20095.8449 |
| 66 | 0.0621 | 0.2002 | 0.0875 | 2003388947.311 | 581570312.7958 | 24115.769 |
| 67 | 0.0687 | 0.2623 | 0.105 | 3218416837.4215 | 845254965.2584 | 29073.2689 |
| 68 | 0.0733 | 0.273 | 0.1203 | 3450994374.4253 | 1082140366.0917 | 32895.902 |
| 69 | 0.0806 | 0.2946 | 0.1348 | 3704392911.9588 | 1300661411.5806 | 36064.6837 |
| 70 | 0.0912 | 0.3621 | 0.1523 | 5227681139.0681 | 1602739852.1566 | 40034.2335 |
| 71 | 0.0887 | 0.3225 | 0.1644 | 5095144757.5858 | 1852197345.4015 | 43037.1624 |
| 72 | 0.0943 | 0.326 | 0.1752 | 5292510642.5761 | 2081551565.2132 | 45624.024 |
