Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast
time	Y[t]	F[t]	95% LB	95% UB	p-value (H0: Y[t] = F[t])	P(F[t]>Y[t-1])	P(F[t]>Y[t-s])	P(F[t]>Y[32])
20	159	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
21	158	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
22	148	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
23	138	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
24	137	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
25	136	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
26	133	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
27	126	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
28	120	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
29	114	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
30	116	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
31	153	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
32	162	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
33	161	162.5799	160.0432	165.1049	0.11	0.6737	0.9998	0.6737
34	149	152.2646	148.3654	156.1342	0.0491	0	0.9846	0
35	139	142.0021	137.6989	146.2665	0.0838	6e-04	0.9671	0
36	135	139.9207	135.3124	144.4839	0.0173	0.6538	0.8952	0
37	130	138.4705	133.5978	143.2922	3e-04	0.9208	0.8424	0
38	127	135.4761	130.065	140.823	9e-04	0.9776	0.818	0
39	122	129.159	122.9925	135.2383	0.0105	0.7568	0.8458	0
40	117	123.8883	116.8989	130.7613	0.0247	0.7049	0.8663	0
41	112	118.3486	110.6747	125.8759	0.0492	0.6373	0.8712	0
42	113	120.1697	112.1431	128.0384	0.0371	0.9791	0.8505	0
43	149	156.3701	148.745	163.8852	0.0273	1	0.8103	0.071
44	157	164.824	157.1266	172.4149	0.0217	1	0.767	0.767
45	157	165.1994	156.2899	173.967	0.0334	0.9666	0.8261	0.7628
46	147	155.1034	144.6004	165.3971	0.0614	0.359	0.8774	0.0946
47	137	145.3074	133.7513	156.5938	0.0746	0.3844	0.8633	0.0019
48	132	143.6069	131.2165	155.6842	0.0298	0.8582	0.9188	0.0014
49	125	142.2786	129.191	155.014	0.0039	0.9432	0.9706	0.0012
50	123	139.1247	125.1752	152.6658	0.0098	0.9795	0.9604	5e-04
51	117	132.5232	117.5184	147.0336	0.018	0.9008	0.9224	0
52	114	127.0259	110.909	142.5497	0.05	0.8972	0.8972	0
53	111	121.4858	104.2779	137.989	0.1065	0.813	0.87	0
54	112	123.4754	105.6157	140.5888	0.0944	0.9235	0.8849	0
55	144	159.6787	142.6801	176.1498	0.031	1	0.8981	0.3912
56	150	168.2491	151.0194	184.964	0.0162	0.9978	0.9064	0.7682
57	149	168.6197	150.1015	186.5456	0.016	0.9791	0.898	0.7654
58	134	158.435	138.1074	178.0062	0.0072	0.8276	0.8739	0.3605
59	123	148.5073	126.745	169.3487	0.0082	0.9138	0.8604	0.1022
60	116	146.7042	123.8719	168.5123	0.0029	0.9834	0.9068	0.0846

Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast Performance
time	% S.E.	PE	MAPE	Sq.E	MSE	RMSE
33	0.0079	-0.0097	0	2.4962	0	0
34	0.013	-0.0214	0.0156	10.6579	6.5771	2.5646
35	0.0153	-0.0211	0.0174	9.0127	7.3889	2.7183
36	0.0166	-0.0352	0.0219	24.2134	11.5951	3.4052
37	0.0178	-0.0612	0.0297	71.7491	23.6259	4.8606
38	0.0201	-0.0626	0.0352	71.8434	31.6621	5.6269
39	0.024	-0.0554	0.0381	51.2512	34.4606	5.8703
40	0.0283	-0.0556	0.0403	47.4485	36.0841	6.007
41	0.0325	-0.0536	0.0418	40.3045	36.553	6.0459
42	0.0334	-0.0597	0.0436	51.4043	38.0381	6.1675
43	0.0245	-0.0471	0.0439	54.3188	39.5182	6.2863
44	0.0235	-0.0475	0.0442	61.2145	41.3262	6.4285
45	0.0271	-0.0496	0.0446	67.2305	43.3189	6.5817
46	0.0339	-0.0522	0.0451	65.6652	44.915	6.7019
47	0.0396	-0.0572	0.0459	69.0129	46.5215	6.8207
48	0.0429	-0.0808	0.0481	134.721	52.034	7.2135
49	0.0457	-0.1214	0.0524	298.5494	66.5349	8.1569
50	0.0497	-0.1159	0.056	260.005	77.2833	8.7911
51	0.0559	-0.1171	0.0592	240.9702	85.8984	9.2681
52	0.0624	-0.1025	0.0614	169.6754	90.0872	9.4914
53	0.0693	-0.0863	0.0625	109.9519	91.0331	9.5411
54	0.0707	-0.0929	0.0639	131.6853	92.881	9.6375
55	0.0526	-0.0982	0.0654	245.8211	99.5305	9.9765
56	0.0507	-0.1085	0.0672	333.029	109.2596	10.4527
57	0.0542	-0.1164	0.0692	384.933	120.2866	10.9675
58	0.063	-0.1542	0.0724	597.0678	138.6243	11.7739
59	0.0716	-0.1718	0.0761	650.6227	157.5872	12.5534
60	0.0758	-0.2093	0.0809	942.7488	185.6287	13.6246