| Multiple Linear Regression - Estimated Regression Equation |
| TWG[t] = + 7.8669608182082 -0.186281824962715Infl[t] -0.049592609250319M1[t] + 0.81064029069286M2[t] + 0.891391168780046M3[t] + 0.770998865614126M4[t] + 0.517894168531413M5[t] + 0.334772607326373M6[t] + 0.475768985786509M7[t] + 0.748546349038621M8[t] + 0.753725636499254M9[t] + 0.544623317379412M10[t] + 0.258594454251616M11[t] + e[t] |
| Multiple Linear Regression - Ordinary Least Squares | |||||
| Variable | Parameter | S.D. | T-STAT H0: parameter = 0 | 2-tail p-value | 1-tail p-value |
| (Intercept) | 7.8669608182082 | 0.296099 | 26.5687 | 0 | 0 |
| Infl | -0.186281824962715 | 0.060129 | -3.098 | 0.002963 | 0.001481 |
| M1 | -0.049592609250319 | 0.359537 | -0.1379 | 0.890754 | 0.445377 |
| M2 | 0.81064029069286 | 0.373823 | 2.1685 | 0.034095 | 0.017048 |
| M3 | 0.891391168780046 | 0.37346 | 2.3868 | 0.020163 | 0.010082 |
| M4 | 0.770998865614126 | 0.373402 | 2.0648 | 0.043272 | 0.021636 |
| M5 | 0.517894168531413 | 0.373356 | 1.3871 | 0.170533 | 0.085266 |
| M6 | 0.334772607326373 | 0.373158 | 0.8971 | 0.373234 | 0.186617 |
| M7 | 0.475768985786509 | 0.373082 | 1.2752 | 0.207141 | 0.10357 |
| M8 | 0.748546349038621 | 0.373022 | 2.0067 | 0.049293 | 0.024647 |
| M9 | 0.753725636499254 | 0.372992 | 2.0208 | 0.047774 | 0.023887 |
| M10 | 0.544623317379412 | 0.373057 | 1.4599 | 0.149536 | 0.074768 |
| M11 | 0.258594454251616 | 0.372999 | 0.6933 | 0.490806 | 0.245403 |
| Multiple Linear Regression - Regression Statistics | |
| Multiple R | 0.533413911883252 |
| R-squared | 0.284530401390593 |
| Adjusted R-squared | 0.141436481668712 |
| F-TEST (value) | 1.98841713151481 |
| F-TEST (DF numerator) | 12 |
| F-TEST (DF denominator) | 60 |
| p-value | 0.0411896849717841 |
| Multiple Linear Regression - Residual Statistics | |
| Residual Standard Deviation | 0.646036995708778 |
| Sum Squared Residuals | 25.0418279894654 |
| Multiple Linear Regression - Actuals, Interpolation, and Residuals | |||
| Time or Index | Actuals | Interpolation Forecast | Residuals Prediction Error |
| 1 | 7.6 | 7.51559165251832 | 0.0844083474816785 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 8.40004118970663 | -0.100041189706625 |
| 3 | 8.4 | 8.424907520305 | -0.0249075203049971 |
| 4 | 8.4 | 8.30265239888945 | 0.0973476011105517 |
| 5 | 8.4 | 8.09052970329853 | 0.309470296701467 |
| 6 | 8.4 | 7.85524923110393 | 0.544750768896065 |
| 7 | 8.6 | 8.0185994285596 | 0.581400571440404 |
| 8 | 8.9 | 8.31931906555612 | 0.580680934443885 |
| 9 | 8.8 | 8.38597135525444 | 0.414028644745557 |
| 10 | 8.3 | 8.20108567337975 | 0.0989143266202461 |
| 11 | 7.5 | 7.76789416853141 | -0.267894168531413 |
| 12 | 7.2 | 7.38076525505552 | -0.180765255055524 |
| 13 | 7.4 | 7.39637128454216 | 0.00362871545784463 |
| 14 | 8.8 | 8.22866191074093 | 0.571338089259073 |
| 15 | 9.3 | 8.33735506257252 | 0.96264493742748 |
| 16 | 9.3 | 8.25980757914802 | 1.04019242085198 |
| 17 | 8.7 | 7.85208896734626 | 0.84791103265374 |
| 18 | 8.2 | 7.72671477187966 | 0.473285228120339 |
| 19 | 8.3 | 7.91987006132936 | 0.380129938670644 |
| 20 | 8.5 | 8.1945102428311 | 0.305489757168904 |
| 21 | 8.6 | 8.14194216455329 | 0.458057835446712 |
| 22 | 8.5 | 7.83969893295209 | 0.660301067047913 |
| 23 | 8.2 | 7.61141743556273 | 0.588582564437267 |
| 24 | 8.1 | 7.3993934375518 | 0.700606562448204 |
| 25 | 7.9 | 7.2827393713149 | 0.617260628685101 |
| 26 | 8.6 | 8.09267617851815 | 0.507323821481854 |
| 27 | 8.7 | 8.17901551135421 | 0.520984488645787 |
| 28 | 8.7 | 8.04930911694016 | 0.650690883059843 |
| 29 | 8.5 | 7.92473887908172 | 0.575261120918283 |
| 30 | 8.4 | 7.7229891353804 | 0.677010864619595 |
| 31 | 8.5 | 7.80437532985247 | 0.695624670147527 |
| 32 | 8.7 | 8.1255859675949 | 0.574414032405108 |
| 33 | 8.7 | 8.1773357112962 | 0.522664288703796 |
| 34 | 8.6 | 8.09676785140064 | 0.503232148599365 |
| 35 | 8.5 | 7.7604428955329 | 0.739557104467096 |
| 36 | 8.3 | 7.45900362153986 | 0.840996378460136 |
| 37 | 8 | 7.46902119627761 | 0.530978803722386 |
| 38 | 8.2 | 8.37955018896073 | -0.179550188960727 |
| 39 | 8.1 | 8.45471261229903 | -0.354712612299032 |
| 40 | 8.1 | 8.41069585736782 | -0.310695857367824 |
| 41 | 8 | 8.15945397853474 | -0.159453978534739 |
| 42 | 7.9 | 7.92417350634014 | -0.0241735063401384 |
| 43 | 7.9 | 8.03722761105587 | -0.137227611055867 |
| 44 | 8 | 8.30627933780872 | -0.306279337808726 |
| 45 | 8 | 8.29096762452346 | -0.290967624523459 |
| 46 | 7.9 | 8.07255121415548 | -0.172551214155481 |
| 47 | 8 | 7.7939736240262 | 0.206026375973806 |
| 48 | 7.7 | 7.62852008225594 | 0.0714799177440648 |
| 49 | 7.2 | 7.57706465475599 | -0.377064654755989 |
| 50 | 7.5 | 8.42239500870215 | -0.922395008702151 |
| 51 | 7.3 | 8.54971634303002 | -1.24971634303002 |
| 52 | 7 | 8.35667412812864 | -1.35667412812864 |
| 53 | 7 | 7.96758369882314 | -0.967583698823142 |
| 54 | 7 | 7.6540648601442 | -0.654064860144201 |
| 55 | 7.2 | 7.76711896485993 | -0.56711896485993 |
| 56 | 7.3 | 7.97097205287584 | -0.670972052875838 |
| 57 | 7.1 | 7.94262061184318 | -0.842620611843182 |
| 58 | 6.8 | 7.5938069240013 | -0.793806924001303 |
| 59 | 6.4 | 7.35248569886456 | -0.952485698864558 |
| 60 | 6.1 | 6.89643251015246 | -0.796432510152465 |
| 61 | 6.5 | 6.73693362417414 | -0.236933624174143 |
| 62 | 7.7 | 7.57667552337142 | 0.123324476628576 |
| 63 | 7.9 | 7.75429295043922 | 0.145707049560779 |
| 64 | 7.5 | 7.62086091952591 | -0.120860919525911 |
| 65 | 6.9 | 7.5056047729156 | -0.605604772915608 |
| 66 | 6.6 | 7.61680849515166 | -1.01680849515166 |
| 67 | 6.9 | 7.85280860434278 | -0.952808604342778 |
| 68 | 7.7 | 8.18333333333333 | -0.483333333333333 |
| 69 | 8 | 8.26116253252943 | -0.261162532529425 |
| 70 | 8 | 8.29608940411074 | -0.29608940411074 |
| 71 | 7.7 | 8.0137861774822 | -0.313786177482197 |
| 72 | 7.3 | 7.93588509344442 | -0.635885093444416 |
| 73 | 7.4 | 8.02227821641688 | -0.622278216416879 |
| Goldfeld-Quandt test for Heteroskedasticity | |||
| p-values | Alternative Hypothesis | ||
| breakpoint index | greater | 2-sided | less |
| 16 | 0.296154672993926 | 0.592309345987852 | 0.703845327006074 |
| 17 | 0.191059252023993 | 0.382118504047987 | 0.808940747976007 |
| 18 | 0.130449303832068 | 0.260898607664136 | 0.869550696167932 |
| 19 | 0.088839819125364 | 0.177679638250728 | 0.911160180874636 |
| 20 | 0.067118393519552 | 0.134236787039104 | 0.932881606480448 |
| 21 | 0.0424649560103514 | 0.0849299120207027 | 0.957535043989649 |
| 22 | 0.0228808291224942 | 0.0457616582449884 | 0.977119170877506 |
| 23 | 0.0198284642062840 | 0.0396569284125679 | 0.980171535793716 |
| 24 | 0.0311995682012476 | 0.0623991364024951 | 0.968800431798752 |
| 25 | 0.0204404216039552 | 0.0408808432079104 | 0.979559578396045 |
| 26 | 0.0124410688241746 | 0.0248821376483493 | 0.987558931175825 |
| 27 | 0.00911820082345796 | 0.0182364016469159 | 0.990881799176542 |
| 28 | 0.0078324604853171 | 0.0156649209706342 | 0.992167539514683 |
| 29 | 0.00592802052811803 | 0.0118560410562361 | 0.994071979471882 |
| 30 | 0.00508611444179216 | 0.0101722288835843 | 0.994913885558208 |
| 31 | 0.00472348704870728 | 0.00944697409741456 | 0.995276512951293 |
| 32 | 0.00400154416471797 | 0.00800308832943595 | 0.995998455835282 |
| 33 | 0.00334093321044252 | 0.00668186642088503 | 0.996659066789557 |
| 34 | 0.00312052222930809 | 0.00624104445861617 | 0.996879477770692 |
| 35 | 0.00851064347398992 | 0.0170212869479798 | 0.99148935652601 |
| 36 | 0.0292702595851261 | 0.0585405191702522 | 0.970729740414874 |
| 37 | 0.0417028796999313 | 0.0834057593998626 | 0.958297120300069 |
| 38 | 0.0321353217700569 | 0.0642706435401138 | 0.967864678229943 |
| 39 | 0.0368203691065129 | 0.0736407382130258 | 0.963179630893487 |
| 40 | 0.0411145233257457 | 0.0822290466514914 | 0.958885476674254 |
| 41 | 0.0435711345832487 | 0.0871422691664973 | 0.956428865416751 |
| 42 | 0.0549303439543742 | 0.109860687908748 | 0.945069656045626 |
| 43 | 0.0637457089956815 | 0.127491417991363 | 0.936254291004318 |
| 44 | 0.0643911626839482 | 0.128782325367896 | 0.935608837316052 |
| 45 | 0.06481201098607 | 0.12962402197214 | 0.93518798901393 |
| 46 | 0.061044180166856 | 0.122088360333712 | 0.938955819833144 |
| 47 | 0.0784747327606746 | 0.156949465521349 | 0.921525267239325 |
| 48 | 0.107222213216195 | 0.214444426432390 | 0.892777786783805 |
| 49 | 0.0776280930970073 | 0.155256186194015 | 0.922371906902993 |
| 50 | 0.117074899959319 | 0.234149799918638 | 0.88292510004068 |
| 51 | 0.376067655813818 | 0.752135311627637 | 0.623932344186182 |
| 52 | 0.84679426011697 | 0.30641147976606 | 0.15320573988303 |
| 53 | 0.882308309973954 | 0.235383380052092 | 0.117691690026046 |
| 54 | 0.883450922729672 | 0.233098154540656 | 0.116549077270328 |
| 55 | 0.869641671526748 | 0.260716656946504 | 0.130358328473252 |
| 56 | 0.806516852533455 | 0.386966294933091 | 0.193483147466546 |
| 57 | 0.788031693975442 | 0.423936612049115 | 0.211968306024558 |
| Meta Analysis of Goldfeld-Quandt test for Heteroskedasticity | |||
| Description | # significant tests | % significant tests | OK/NOK |
| 1% type I error level | 4 | 0.0952380952380952 | NOK |
| 5% type I error level | 13 | 0.309523809523810 | NOK |
| 10% type I error level | 21 | 0.5 | NOK |
