| Structural Time Series Model | |||||
| t | Observed | Level | Slope | Seasonal | Stand. Residuals |
| 1 | 441 | 441 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | 449 | 446.717435759553 | 0.631581524911323 | 2.28256424044715 | 1.28552032556163 |
| 3 | 452 | 450.936884892431 | 1.33091070452850 | 1.06311510756910 | 0.824786520304844 |
| 4 | 462 | 458.505941824605 | 3.01370916188749 | 3.49405817539502 | 1.50557134359278 |
| 5 | 455 | 457.975868336966 | 1.94881762276254 | -2.97586833696630 | -0.81004119533735 |
| 6 | 461 | 459.82565306101 | 1.91822346769152 | 1.17434693898988 | -0.0221539072289018 |
| 7 | 461 | 460.948676253741 | 1.67009184831381 | 0.0513237462585317 | -0.177745130952903 |
| 8 | 463 | 462.453510808999 | 1.61824530133702 | 0.546489191001202 | -0.0370003039746671 |
| 9 | 462 | 462.415810484681 | 1.09724761496450 | -0.415810484680734 | -0.371061836623348 |
| 10 | 456 | 458.169627823973 | -0.586042051209288 | -2.16962782397310 | -1.19766015233759 |
| 11 | 455 | 454.911979830581 | -1.42807379879260 | 0.08802016941942 | -0.598838964653821 |
| 12 | 456 | 454.435710342627 | -1.12802594370617 | 1.56428965737335 | 0.213349828096414 |
| 13 | 472 | 466.539660706758 | 2.93352446978861 | 5.46033929324174 | 3.11429893793395 |
| 14 | 472 | 472.333068053376 | 3.82385843771013 | -0.333068053376204 | 0.628754787199817 |
| 15 | 471 | 474.169131701006 | 3.22512895415968 | -3.16913170100553 | -0.412671118049369 |
| 16 | 465 | 466.919213629184 | 0.0627718867572136 | -1.91921362918414 | -2.27857602087526 |
| 17 | 459 | 463.263401582976 | -1.0786267453378 | -4.26340158297648 | -0.818878003304833 |
| 18 | 465 | 463.129791559248 | -0.787445581474338 | 1.87020844075155 | 0.206052834730637 |
| 19 | 468 | 466.304765660056 | 0.430845874567361 | 1.69523433994399 | 0.86115228510595 |
| 20 | 467 | 466.637782201343 | 0.400795744756589 | 0.362217798656637 | -0.0213084368819316 |
| 21 | 463 | 463.394913169496 | -0.719041809530875 | -0.394913169496333 | -0.795544108216442 |
| 22 | 460 | 461.335589320017 | -1.13112980288854 | -1.3355893200174 | -0.292904831502631 |
| 23 | 462 | 462.129618898161 | -0.539906978781503 | -0.129618898161461 | 0.420399731696298 |
| 24 | 461 | 464.07688940452 | 0.221848233047964 | -3.07688940451952 | 0.544163749366548 |
| 25 | 476 | 468.857210326748 | 1.61929018550552 | 7.14278967325168 | 1.01147744044862 |
| 26 | 476 | 473.18582661213 | 2.45118923262705 | 2.81417338787011 | 0.591285847403206 |
| 27 | 471 | 471.876183737531 | 1.31016887344743 | -0.876183737530739 | -0.800951432985165 |
| 28 | 453 | 460.632410596199 | -2.48167323101260 | -7.63241059619914 | -2.70295580901936 |
| 29 | 443 | 450.948822191343 | -4.67146759276806 | -7.94882219134259 | -1.56976564679461 |
| 30 | 442 | 442.967884869600 | -5.68241377072582 | -0.967884869600482 | -0.719630490243377 |
| 31 | 444 | 439.803510622913 | -4.91347897782104 | 4.19648937708678 | 0.544874210730797 |
| 32 | 438 | 435.662199316235 | -4.67800505447973 | 2.33780068376455 | 0.166906082822629 |
| 33 | 427 | 428.472075448504 | -5.44363399106179 | -1.47207544850351 | -0.543462662979813 |
| 34 | 424 | 424.951713074043 | -4.85774232093182 | -0.951713074042544 | 0.416330734078912 |
| 35 | 416 | 419.049180447393 | -5.17571485051265 | -3.0491804473932 | -0.226352148221674 |
| 36 | 406 | 412.503573448653 | -5.59254499872304 | -6.50357344865279 | -0.297884665194414 |
| 37 | 431 | 417.872063340163 | -2.25051121001178 | 13.1279366598366 | 2.39238507208644 |
| 38 | 434 | 424.518620347288 | 0.461981402788573 | 9.48137965271222 | 1.9259584805049 |
| 39 | 418 | 418.11510287987 | -1.61935056808329 | -0.115102879869952 | -1.47023268191707 |
| 40 | 412 | 415.735838393516 | -1.84891811475748 | -3.73583839351554 | -0.163236195857756 |
| 41 | 404 | 412.07493888407 | -2.39769754880453 | -8.07493888406992 | -0.39230715566145 |
| 42 | 409 | 410.470923110357 | -2.15649409584885 | -1.47092311035693 | 0.172011285661586 |
| 43 | 412 | 408.078071021332 | -2.22836910839461 | 3.92192897866832 | -0.0510428035110751 |
| 44 | 406 | 403.726207326486 | -2.87334762218838 | 2.27379267351351 | -0.457333811828727 |
| 45 | 398 | 399.915115239961 | -3.15780732874464 | -1.91511523996091 | -0.201822993927957 |
| 46 | 397 | 396.874468319764 | -3.12230059034739 | 0.125531680236280 | 0.0252309015864529 |
| 47 | 385 | 390.621027444770 | -4.07085662535123 | -5.62102744476956 | -0.675619399800132 |
| 48 | 390 | 395.961886412081 | -1.21733590356288 | -5.96188641208143 | 2.03717677607598 |
| 49 | 413 | 400.725126501638 | 0.598757767332859 | 12.2748734983619 | 1.29548487253752 |
| 50 | 413 | 401.322779060104 | 0.598422292420102 | 11.6772209398959 | -0.000238153334255017 |
| 51 | 401 | 401.135821009633 | 0.360808326592136 | -0.135821009632864 | -0.168266825261693 |
| 52 | 397 | 400.63428833041 | 0.100534720478469 | -3.63428833041016 | -0.184976658984728 |
| 53 | 397 | 403.628541374877 | 0.974820632600847 | -6.62854137487691 | 0.623836780206533 |
| 54 | 409 | 408.294260091342 | 2.09257715934282 | 0.705739908657495 | 0.797157992682264 |
| 55 | 419 | 412.873588449291 | 2.84632530430536 | 6.1264115507089 | 0.535899269762868 |
| 56 | 424 | 419.184520747697 | 3.89555508416566 | 4.81547925230328 | 0.744415252872673 |
| 57 | 428 | 427.341475763359 | 5.18422601341692 | 0.658524236640769 | 0.9143116661655 |
| 58 | 430 | 431.044007844971 | 4.73662141662065 | -1.04400784497089 | -0.318086943579514 |
| 59 | 424 | 434.710742571535 | 4.41344429115632 | -10.7107425715351 | -0.230184651250061 |
| 60 | 433 | 440.468645878498 | 4.81997613508171 | -7.46864587849756 | 0.289950225207285 |
| 61 | 456 | 444.239996147269 | 4.50252966840195 | 11.7600038527313 | -0.226120888575190 |
