Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast
time	Y[t]	F[t]	95% LB	95% UB	p-value (H0: Y[t] = F[t])	P(F[t]>Y[t-1])	P(F[t]>Y[t-s])	P(F[t]>Y[48])
36	17.7	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
37	19.8	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
38	22.2	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
39	20.7	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
40	17.9	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
41	20.9	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
42	21.2	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
43	21.4	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
44	23	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
45	21.3	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
46	23.9	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
47	22.4	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
48	18.3	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
49	22.8	22.6798	20.2968	25.7376	0.4693	0.9975	0.9675	0.9975
50	22.3	24.7522	21.9048	28.5068	0.1003	0.8459	0.9086	0.9996
51	17.8	22.5419	20.0127	25.8509	0.0025	0.557	0.8624	0.994
52	16.4	19.7855	17.6553	22.538	0.008	0.9213	0.9103	0.8549
53	16	23.0729	20.1668	27.0245	2e-04	0.9995	0.8594	0.991
54	16.4	23.4652	20.3229	27.8375	8e-04	0.9996	0.8451	0.9897
55	17.7	23.9501	20.5653	28.7641	0.0055	0.9989	0.8504	0.9893
56	16.6	25.7453	21.7812	31.6045	0.0011	0.9964	0.8208	0.9936
57	16.2	23.6745	20.1971	28.7036	0.0018	0.9971	0.8226	0.9819
58	18.3	27.0415	22.4468	34.1868	0.0082	0.9985	0.8056	0.9918
59	17.6	25.0314	20.987	31.1537	0.0087	0.9844	0.8002	0.9844
60	15.1	20.0061	17.3201	23.7469	0.0051	0.8963	0.8143	0.8143

Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast Performance
time	% S.E.	PE	MAPE	Sq.E	MSE	RMSE
49	0.0688	0.0053	4e-04	0.0144	0.0012	0.0347
50	0.0774	-0.0991	0.0083	6.0134	0.5011	0.7079
51	0.0749	-0.2104	0.0175	22.4861	1.8738	1.3689
52	0.071	-0.1711	0.0143	11.4613	0.9551	0.9773
53	0.0874	-0.3065	0.0255	50.0264	4.1689	2.0418
54	0.0951	-0.3011	0.0251	49.9178	4.1598	2.0396
55	0.1026	-0.261	0.0217	39.0642	3.2553	1.8043
56	0.1161	-0.3552	0.0296	83.6359	6.9697	2.64
57	0.1084	-0.3157	0.0263	55.8682	4.6557	2.1577
58	0.1348	-0.3233	0.0269	76.4138	6.3678	2.5235
59	0.1248	-0.2969	0.0247	55.2251	4.6021	2.1452
60	0.0954	-0.2452	0.0204	24.0696	2.0058	1.4163