Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast
time	Y[t]	F[t]	95% LB	95% UB	p-value (H0: Y[t] = F[t])	P(F[t]>Y[t-1])	P(F[t]>Y[t-s])	P(F[t]>Y[48])
36	17.7	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
37	19.8	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
38	22.2	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
39	20.7	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
40	17.9	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
41	20.9	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
42	21.2	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
43	21.4	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
44	23	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
45	21.3	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
46	23.9	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
47	22.4	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
48	18.3	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
49	22.8	23.4443	21.2407	26.19	0.3228	0.9999	0.9954	0.9999
50	22.3	24.6734	22.2404	27.742	0.0648	0.8843	0.9429	1
51	17.8	22.9204	20.7161	25.6827	1e-04	0.6701	0.9424	0.9995
52	16.4	21.0993	19.0139	23.731	2e-04	0.993	0.9914	0.9815
53	16	22.4476	20.0625	25.5178	0	0.9999	0.8384	0.9959
54	16.4	23.1543	20.5111	26.6313	1e-04	1	0.8647	0.9969
55	17.7	25.2815	21.9984	29.796	5e-04	0.9999	0.954	0.9988
56	16.6	25.3863	22.0098	30.0716	1e-04	0.9993	0.8409	0.9985
57	16.2	23.8466	20.7658	28.0748	2e-04	0.9996	0.8811	0.9949
58	18.3	26.9553	22.9345	32.8109	0.0019	0.9998	0.8468	0.9981
59	17.6	23.6985	20.4967	28.1689	0.0037	0.991	0.7154	0.991
60	15.1	19.6777	17.404	22.68	0.0014	0.9125	0.8158	0.8158

Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast Performance
time	% S.E.	PE	MAPE	Sq.E	MSE	RMSE
49	0.0598	-0.0275	0.0023	0.4151	0.0346	0.186
50	0.0635	-0.0962	0.008	5.6332	0.4694	0.6851
51	0.0615	-0.2234	0.0186	26.2189	2.1849	1.4781
52	0.0636	-0.2227	0.0186	22.0834	1.8403	1.3566
53	0.0698	-0.2872	0.0239	41.5713	3.4643	1.8613
54	0.0766	-0.2917	0.0243	45.6212	3.8018	1.9498
55	0.0911	-0.2999	0.025	57.4792	4.7899	2.1886
56	0.0942	-0.3461	0.0288	77.1986	6.4332	2.5364
57	0.0905	-0.3207	0.0267	58.4705	4.8725	2.2074
58	0.1108	-0.3211	0.0268	74.9146	6.2429	2.4986
59	0.0962	-0.2573	0.0214	37.1918	3.0993	1.7605
60	0.0778	-0.2326	0.0194	20.9552	1.7463	1.3215