Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast
time	Y[t]	F[t]	95% LB	95% UB	p-value (H0: Y[t] = F[t])	P(F[t]>Y[t-1])	P(F[t]>Y[t-s])	P(F[t]>Y[32])
20	22782	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
21	22067	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
22	21489	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
23	20903	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
24	20330	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
25	19736	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
26	19483	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
27	19242	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
28	20334	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
29	21423	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
30	22523	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
31	21986	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
32	21462	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
33	20908	20599.4381	19663.3344	21535.5418	0.2591	0.0355	0.0011	0.0355
34	20575	20521.0892	18861.6606	22180.5177	0.4746	0.3238	0.1265	0.1332
35	20237	20450.1451	18194.0148	22706.2755	0.4265	0.4568	0.347	0.1897
36	19904	20889.4768	18485.7038	23293.2499	0.2108	0.7026	0.6759	0.3203
37	19610	21126.5492	18707.8741	23545.2243	0.1095	0.8391	0.8701	0.3929
38	19251	21464.5494	19025.671	23903.4277	0.0376	0.9319	0.9444	0.5008
39	18941	21471.5571	18990.0265	23953.0878	0.0228	0.9603	0.9609	0.503
40	20450	21472.5989	18946.2856	23998.9122	0.2138	0.9752	0.8115	0.5033
41	21946	21277.4726	18747.2309	23807.7143	0.3023	0.7392	0.4551	0.4432
42	23409	21176.1709	18646.3764	23705.9654	0.0418	0.2754	0.1484	0.4124
43	22741	21045.9388	18497.5768	23594.3007	0.0962	0.0346	0.2348	0.3745
44	22069	21054.3905	18483.5685	23625.2124	0.2196	0.0992	0.378	0.378
45	21539	21065.4147	18475.032	23655.7974	0.36	0.2238	0.5474	0.3821
46	21189	21150.8246	18555.6571	23745.9921	0.4885	0.3847	0.6682	0.4071
47	20960	21193.0464	18598.4783	23787.6146	0.4301	0.5012	0.7649	0.4195
48	20704	21242.2493	18649.8	23834.6986	0.342	0.5845	0.8442	0.434
49	19697	21233.7897	18643.3129	23824.2664	0.1225	0.6557	0.8904	0.4315
50	19598	21224.6711	18636.0533	23813.2889	0.109	0.8763	0.9325	0.4287
51	19456	21187.7938	18600.002	23775.5857	0.0948	0.8857	0.9556	0.4177
52	20316	21170.6251	18582.2064	23759.0438	0.2588	0.9029	0.7074	0.4127
53	21083	21152.4713	18561.6394	23743.3031	0.479	0.7366	0.2741	0.4074
54	22158	21158.0992	18565.0629	23751.1356	0.2249	0.5226	0.0444	0.4092
55	21469	21163.6516	18569.0369	23758.2662	0.4088	0.2263	0.1167	0.4108
56	20892	21179.3664	18584.4933	23774.2396	0.4141	0.4134	0.2508	0.4155
57	20578	21186.169	18591.6697	23780.6684	0.323	0.5879	0.3949	0.4175
58	20233	21192.6695	18598.9544	23786.3846	0.2342	0.6789	0.5011	0.4194
59	19947	21189.4453	18596.4011	23782.4895	0.1738	0.7651	0.5688	0.4184
60	20049	21186.4678	18593.8878	23779.0478	0.1949	0.8256	0.6424	0.4175

Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast Performance
time	% S.E.	PE	MAPE	Sq.E	MSE	RMSE
33	0.0232	0.015	0	95210.4454	0	0
34	0.0413	0.0026	0.0088	2906.3784	49058.4119	221.4913
35	0.0563	-0.0104	0.0093	45430.8446	47849.2228	218.7447
36	0.0587	-0.0472	0.0188	971164.6148	278678.0708	527.8997
37	0.0584	-0.0718	0.0294	2299921.4856	682926.7538	826.3938
38	0.058	-0.1031	0.0417	4899800.8713	1385739.1067	1177.1742
39	0.059	-0.1179	0.0526	6403719.3833	2102593.4319	1450.0322
40	0.06	-0.0476	0.0519	1045708.5047	1970482.816	1403.7389
41	0.0607	0.0314	0.0497	446928.8873	1801199.0462	1342.0876
42	0.061	0.1054	0.0552	4985525.9111	2119631.7326	1455.8955
43	0.0618	0.0805	0.0575	2873232.4889	2188140.8923	1479.2366
44	0.0623	0.0482	0.0568	1029432.5214	2091581.8614	1446.2302
45	0.0627	0.0225	0.0541	224283.023	1947943.4892	1395.6875
46	0.0626	0.0018	0.0504	1457.3631	1808908.7659	1344.9568
47	0.0625	-0.011	0.0478	54310.6399	1691935.5575	1300.7442
48	0.0623	-0.0253	0.0464	289712.3281	1604296.6057	1266.6083
49	0.0622	-0.0724	0.0479	2361722.5469	1648851.0728	1284.076
50	0.0622	-0.0766	0.0495	2646058.9352	1704251.5096	1305.4698
51	0.0623	-0.0817	0.0512	2999109.818	1772401.9469	1331.3159
52	0.0624	-0.0404	0.0506	730384.0773	1720301.0534	1311.6025
53	0.0625	-0.0033	0.0484	4826.259	1638611.7775	1280.0827
54	0.0625	0.0473	0.0483	999801.5372	1609574.9484	1268.6902
55	0.0625	0.0144	0.0469	93237.6613	1543647.2402	1242.436
56	0.0625	-0.0136	0.0455	82579.4736	1482769.4166	1217.6902
57	0.0625	-0.0287	0.0448	369869.5742	1438253.4229	1199.272
58	0.0624	-0.0453	0.0448	920965.537	1418357.735	1190.9483
59	0.0624	-0.0586	0.0453	1543670.2974	1422998.941	1192.8952
60	0.0624	-0.0537	0.0456	1293833.0056	1418385.8719	1190.9601