Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast
timeY[t]F[t]95% LB95% UBp-value
(H0: Y[t] = F[t])
P(F[t]>Y[t-1])P(F[t]>Y[t-s])P(F[t]>Y[32])
2027.94-------
2125.23-------
2226.53-------
2327.21-------
2428.53-------
2530.35-------
2631.21-------
2732.86-------
2833.2-------
2935.73-------
3034.53-------
3136.54-------
3240.1-------
3340.5643.565340.478246.65250.02820.986110.9861
3446.1444.519638.872350.16680.28690.915310.9375
3542.8542.026633.943550.10970.42090.15930.99980.6798
3638.2241.045131.848450.24180.27360.35020.99620.5798
3740.1842.149532.269352.02980.3480.78220.99040.6578
3842.1942.795332.038453.55220.45610.68320.98260.6883
3947.5642.144730.377853.91160.18350.4970.9390.6333
4047.2641.649529.052254.24670.19130.17890.90570.5953
4144.0341.731428.459555.00330.36710.20710.81230.5952
4249.8342.087728.143656.03180.13820.39240.8560.61
4353.3541.89427.252256.53590.06260.1440.76320.5949
4458.941.531626.231456.83180.0130.0650.57280.5728
4559.6441.339125.483957.19440.01180.0150.53840.5609
4656.9941.384425.016657.75220.03080.01440.28450.5611
4753.241.533224.66958.39740.08760.03620.43920.5661
4853.2441.546324.17958.91360.09350.09420.64630.5648
4957.8541.484123.624559.34360.03620.09850.55690.5604
5055.6941.475923.147659.80410.06430.040.46960.5585
5155.6441.532222.750260.31430.07050.06980.26470.5594
5262.5241.552922.322860.78290.01630.07550.28040.5589
5364.441.557221.88761.22750.01140.01840.40270.5577
5464.6541.534521.43661.6330.01210.01290.20930.5556
5567.7141.561421.04562.07780.00620.01370.130.5555
5667.2141.600420.673662.52720.00820.00720.05260.5559
5759.3741.63120.295362.96670.05160.00940.0490.5559
5853.2641.634219.894763.37370.14730.05490.08310.555
5952.4241.61219.474863.74920.16930.15120.15240.5532
6055.0341.604419.078864.13010.12140.17330.15570.5521


Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast Performance
time% S.E.PEMAPESq.EMSERMSE
330.0362-0.06909.03200
340.06470.03640.05272.62585.82892.4143
350.09810.01960.04170.6784.11192.0278
360.1143-0.06880.04857.98145.07932.2537
370.1196-0.04670.04813.87914.83932.1998
380.1282-0.01410.04240.36644.09382.0233
390.14250.12850.054729.32527.69832.7746
400.15430.13470.064731.478110.67083.2666
410.16230.05510.06375.283610.07223.1737
420.1690.1840.075759.943215.05933.8806
430.17830.27350.0937131.238825.62115.0617
440.1880.41820.1207301.66248.62456.9731
450.19570.44270.1455334.921770.64738.4052
460.20180.37710.162243.533882.99649.1102
470.20720.28090.17136.114586.53769.3026
480.21330.28150.1769136.742289.67549.4697
490.21970.39450.1897267.844100.155910.0078
500.22550.34270.1982202.0414105.816210.2867
510.23070.33970.2057199.0287110.722110.5225
520.23610.50460.2206439.6207127.16711.2768
530.24150.54970.2363521.7919145.958712.0813
540.24690.55650.2508534.3261163.611812.7911
550.25190.62920.2673683.7487186.226413.6465
560.25670.61560.2818655.8506205.794114.3455
570.26150.42610.2876314.673210.149214.4965
580.26640.27920.2873135.1597207.26514.3967
590.27140.25970.2862116.8129203.914914.2799
600.27620.32270.2875180.2455203.069614.2502