Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast
time	Y[t]	F[t]	95% LB	95% UB	p-value (H0: Y[t] = F[t])	P(F[t]>Y[t-1])	P(F[t]>Y[t-s])	P(F[t]>Y[42])
41	14510.35	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
42	14289.23	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
43	14111.82	14215.5664	13660.5007	14770.632	0.3571	0.3974	0.3974	0.3974
44	13086.59	14173.9781	13204.2692	15143.6869	0.014	0.55	0.55	0.4079
45	13351.54	14150.4986	12806.4452	15494.5519	0.122	0.9396	0.9396	0.4198
46	13747.69	14137.2428	12457.6873	15816.7982	0.3247	0.8204	0.8204	0.4296
47	12855.61	14129.7589	12148.794	16110.7238	0.1037	0.6473	0.6473	0.4373
48	12926.93	14125.5338	11871.7882	16379.2794	0.1486	0.8653	0.8653	0.4434
49	12121.95	14123.1484	11620.289	16626.0077	0.0585	0.8256	0.8256	0.4483
50	11731.65	14121.8016	11389.3622	16854.2411	0.0432	0.9243	0.9243	0.4522
51	11639.51	14121.0413	11175.2326	17066.85	0.0494	0.9441	0.9441	0.4554
52	12163.78	14120.6121	10975.0099	17266.2142	0.1114	0.9389	0.9389	0.4582
53	12029.53	14120.3697	10786.4642	17454.2752	0.1095	0.875	0.875	0.4605
54	11234.18	14120.2329	10607.8571	17632.6087	0.0536	0.8783	0.8783	0.4624
55	9852.13	14120.1557	10437.8156	17802.4957	0.0116	0.9377	0.9377	0.4641
56	9709.04	14120.1121	10275.2416	17964.9825	0.0123	0.9852	0.9852	0.4656
57	9332.75	14120.0874	10119.2445	18120.9304	0.0095	0.9847	0.9847	0.467
58	7108.6	14120.0735	9969.0933	18271.0538	5e-04	0.9881	0.9881	0.4682
59	6691.49	14120.0657	9824.1804	18415.951	4e-04	0.9993	0.9993	0.4692
60	6143.05	14120.0613	9683.9954	18556.1271	2e-04	0.9995	0.9995	0.4702

Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast Performance
time	% S.E.	PE	MAPE	Sq.E	MSE	RMSE
43	0.0199	-0.0073	0	10763.3096	0	0
44	0.0349	-0.0767	0.042	1182412.8553	596588.0824	772.3911
45	0.0485	-0.0565	0.0468	638334.8237	610503.6629	781.3473
46	0.0606	-0.0276	0.042	151751.3545	495815.5858	704.1417
47	0.0715	-0.0902	0.0516	1623455.4691	721343.5624	849.3195
48	0.0814	-0.0849	0.0572	1436650.9871	840561.4666	916.8214
49	0.0904	-0.1417	0.0693	4004794.9165	1292594.8166	1136.9234
50	0.0987	-0.1693	0.0818	5712824.8959	1845123.5765	1358.3533
51	0.1064	-0.1757	0.0922	6157997.7292	2324331.8157	1524.5759
52	0.1137	-0.1386	0.0968	3829191.7649	2474817.8106	1573.1554
53	0.1205	-0.1481	0.1015	4371610.7763	2647253.5348	1627.0383
54	0.1269	-0.2044	0.1101	8329301.3985	3120757.5234	1766.5666
55	0.1331	-0.3023	0.1249	18216043.08	4281933.3354	2069.2833
56	0.1389	-0.3124	0.1382	19457556.6778	5365906.4313	2316.4426
57	0.1446	-0.339	0.1516	22918599.7119	6536085.9834	2556.577
58	0.15	-0.4966	0.1732	49160761.1222	9200128.1795	3033.1713
59	0.1552	-0.5261	0.194	55183736.7324	11905046.3297	3450.369
60	0.1603	-0.5649	0.2146	63632708.5802	14778805.3436	3844.3212