Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast
time	Y[t]	F[t]	95% LB	95% UB	p-value (H0: Y[t] = F[t])	P(F[t]>Y[t-1])	P(F[t]>Y[t-s])	P(F[t]>Y[93])
81	217.48	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
82	209.39	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
83	211.73	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
84	221	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
85	203.11	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
86	214.71	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
87	224.19	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
88	238.04	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
89	238.36	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
90	246.24	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
91	259.87	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
92	249.97	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
93	266.48	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
94	282.98	276.6105	259.457	293.7641	0.2334	0.8765	1	0.8765
95	306.31	281.8283	254.0404	309.6162	0.0421	0.4676	1	0.8605
96	301.73	287.0828	249.6363	324.5293	0.2216	0.1571	0.9997	0.8596
97	314.62	297.1124	247.7281	346.4968	0.2436	0.4273	0.9999	0.888
98	332.62	305.0375	240.9191	369.1559	0.1996	0.3848	0.9971	0.8807
99	355.51	311.5568	232.3618	390.7518	0.1383	0.3011	0.9847	0.8677
100	370.32	319.0403	224.1553	413.9253	0.1447	0.2256	0.9529	0.8612
101	408.13	327.2768	215.3566	439.197	0.0784	0.2255	0.9403	0.8565
102	433.58	334.7724	204.7126	464.8323	0.0682	0.1345	0.9089	0.8483
103	440.51	342.0735	193.2033	490.9436	0.0975	0.1141	0.8604	0.8402
104	386.29	349.7572	181.2781	518.2363	0.3354	0.1455	0.8772	0.8337
105	342.84	357.4908	168.4977	546.484	0.4396	0.3826	0.8274	0.8274
106	254.97	365.0088	154.7235	575.2942	0.1525	0.5818	0.7777	0.8208
107	203.42	372.545	140.2719	604.8182	0.0768	0.8394	0.7119	0.8146
108	170.09	380.186	125.1977	635.1742	0.0532	0.9129	0.7268	0.8089
109	174.03	387.8004	109.3761	666.2248	0.0662	0.9373	0.6968	0.8035
110	167.85	395.3649	92.8334	697.8964	0.0702	0.9242	0.6578	0.7981
111	177.01	402.9524	75.6643	730.2404	0.088	0.9204	0.6118	0.7931
112	188.19	410.5612	57.8696	763.2528	0.1083	0.9028	0.5885	0.7883
113	211.2	418.1545	39.4293	796.8798	0.1421	0.883	0.5207	0.7838
114	240.91	425.7395	20.3725	831.1066	0.1857	0.8502	0.4849	0.7794
115	230.26	433.3341	0.7291	865.939	0.1788	0.8083	0.487	0.7752
116	251.25	440.9311	-19.4982	901.3605	0.2097	0.8151	0.592	0.7711
117	241.66	448.5229	-40.3038	937.3496	0.2034	0.7855	0.6641	0.7673

Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast Performance
time	% S.E.	PE	MAPE	Sq.E	MSE	RMSE
94	0.0316	0.023	0	40.57	0	0
95	0.0503	0.0869	0.0549	599.3559	319.9629	17.8875
96	0.0666	0.051	0.0536	214.5416	284.8225	16.8767
97	0.0848	0.0589	0.055	306.5147	290.2455	17.0366
98	0.1072	0.0904	0.0621	760.7953	384.3555	19.605
99	0.1297	0.1411	0.0752	1931.8856	642.2772	25.3432
100	0.1517	0.1607	0.0874	2629.6087	926.1817	30.4332
101	0.1745	0.247	0.1074	6537.2418	1627.5642	40.3431
102	0.1982	0.2951	0.1283	9762.9329	2531.494	50.314
103	0.222	0.2878	0.1442	9689.7536	3247.32	56.9853
104	0.2458	0.1045	0.1406	1334.6463	3073.4406	55.4386
105	0.2697	-0.041	0.1323	214.6471	2835.2078	53.2467
106	0.2939	-0.3015	0.1453	12108.5421	3548.5412	59.5696
107	0.3181	-0.454	0.1674	28603.2761	5338.1651	73.0627
108	0.3422	-0.5526	0.193	44140.3116	7924.9749	89.0223
109	0.3663	-0.5512	0.2154	45697.8021	10285.7766	101.4188
110	0.3904	-0.5755	0.2366	51763.0279	12725.6149	112.8079
111	0.4144	-0.5607	0.2546	51049.9519	14854.7447	121.88
112	0.4383	-0.5416	0.2697	49448.948	16675.4923	129.1336
113	0.4621	-0.4949	0.281	42830.173	17983.2263	134.1016
114	0.4858	-0.4341	0.2883	34161.9603	18753.6422	136.9439
115	0.5093	-0.4686	0.2965	41239.0773	19775.7074	140.6261
116	0.5328	-0.4302	0.3023	35978.9362	20480.1956	143.109
117	0.5561	-0.4612	0.3089	42792.2552	21409.8648	146.3211