| ARIMA Parameter Estimation and Backward Selection | |||
| Iteration | ar1 | ar2 | ar3 |
| Estimates ( 1 ) | 0.4726 | -0.0929 | 0.0783 |
| (p-val) | (0 ) | (0.1115 ) | (0.1452 ) |
| Estimates ( 2 ) | 0.4671 | -0.0574 | 0 |
| (p-val) | (0 ) | (0.28 ) | (NA ) |
| Estimates ( 3 ) | 0.4422 | 0 | 0 |
| (p-val) | (0 ) | (NA ) | (NA ) |
| Estimates ( 4 ) | NA | NA | NA |
| (p-val) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) |
| Estimates ( 5 ) | NA | NA | NA |
| (p-val) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) |
| Estimated ARIMA Residuals |
| Value |
| 0.254999841063108 |
| 22.5704753263939 |
| 8.5538361276542 |
| 31.5450569410545 |
| 17.7736759247198 |
| 5.20794122567446 |
| -11.3052664161448 |
| -4.38296417522781 |
| -3.24357293509183 |
| -3.59447173306194 |
| -9.07717546139503 |
| -0.237510304276952 |
| -3.79048250331749 |
| -1.28852818788073 |
| -1.2399931014466 |
| -10.9922476455895 |
| 0.0560904973877996 |
| -6.76674336635801 |
| -1.69291819053285 |
| -12.8714759696248 |
| -1.75007656277450 |
| -1.33194181337876 |
| 0.672892629138289 |
| -1.33229303718508 |
| -3.65101185050935 |
| -2.17754119053706 |
| -5.33177317864391 |
| -0.465645476982843 |
| -0.667109095500052 |
| 5.38651311005367 |
| 19.6954267063271 |
| 16.5933386489706 |
| -0.361836397163017 |
| 1.38280885962979 |
| 2.63138432097463 |
| 0.272808587270220 |
| -12.5872796121033 |
| 11.2735640269813 |
| -10.2992951132404 |
| -1.7085590804204 |
| 4.07370279814512 |
| -3.53862284993835 |
| 8.08923392754014 |
| -6.45520490970472 |
| -9.15565711986153 |
| -0.939743014941143 |
| -11.6757529197378 |
| -3.69262184697271 |
| 0.485197738791726 |
| -14.6213410836070 |
| 1.59751217358615 |
| -0.626785308677057 |
| -1.84150297701851 |
| 2.18241341786734 |
| -4.06315161747463 |
| 0.0513749895540627 |
| -0.347879046826392 |
| 0.728515407183465 |
| -3.43853551602373 |
| 10.5177493347235 |
| -6.18784054750446 |
| 12.7576961791155 |
| -4.32851885018044 |
| 0.440890604368121 |
| 0.423039430394397 |
| -2.01632938316357 |
| -2.03047231271751 |
| 2.55126452711210 |
| -2.17380463739528 |
| -1.57137413037469 |
| 0.0939665308068811 |
| 0.788313296091303 |
| 1.41475271210706 |
| 0.834615671861229 |
| -0.449754651540275 |
| -4.1015330040992 |
| 1.52666896409127 |
| -0.848622420348676 |
| -0.94927845995636 |
| 2.06130776447975 |
| -2.97533764149449 |
| 2.11380636203364 |
| 1.80653278930436 |
| -3.26365093758582 |
| 5.56549479058071 |
| 3.31833254575224 |
| -4.51644846879719 |
| 2.34353271113162 |
| 0.706532789304333 |
| 2.95017855297516 |
| 0.839749048035571 |
| -1.62007196939965 |
| 1.76481821254305 |
| 0.252544854608573 |
| -1.44574488336582 |
| 1.56551791910800 |
| -0.53029246469373 |
| 2.05743158727449 |
| -0.534235437383586 |
| -0.871983912927703 |
| -0.403333190136834 |
| 0.827748905133888 |
| 0.0204958708345089 |
| -5.31141952197032 |
| 1.24624161337965 |
| 1.36189700860291 |
| -1.68274739529039 |
| -7.2229957634371 |
| 23.8803434597941 |
| 73.9695439298158 |
| -17.6253153765693 |
| -11.5106912889837 |
| 0.448004867503585 |
| -1.76877569056848 |
| -6.02920649055676 |
| -10.2738217328283 |
| -13.7131613847645 |
| 6.68018085815362 |
| 3.26844101119627 |
| -2.37925748565709 |
| -2.61297565459682 |
| -6.48639402442012 |
| -2.08780794288577 |
| -7.23785031479434 |
| -5.73071033303427 |
| 2.73789672279941 |
| -2.95557652099058 |
| -8.37330790738145 |
| 8.25874710948699 |
| 4.02115450053952 |
| -14.7655702092570 |
| 2.87297478285814 |
| 10.8588858806508 |
| -4.59592687933798 |
| -6.06007628413528 |
| 10.7534946476790 |
| -5.77011175121089 |
| -0.21696488434128 |
| 6.79729972094361 |
| -7.28227723680078 |
| 3.26468203147641 |
| 0.832638227897121 |
| 3.05101185050933 |
| 1.65781182175209 |
| 2.57100840123263 |
| 7.16776513510786 |
| -5.18665273411739 |
| 8.71265100231483 |
| 1.17524427448558 |
| -1.40568498643461 |
| 5.88882453144083 |
| -8.0863101335026 |
| -4.44446111287237 |
| -2.90017122483209 |
| -11.1165442749530 |
| 9.36149967869227 |
| -4.36352667175754 |
| 5.92950283411682 |
| -9.75702822426956 |
| 3.13234273723674 |
| 5.15527688538396 |
| 1.38981713856879 |
| 6.18262830965676 |
| -6.07282324355629 |
| 1.50344106248133 |
| 0.438358258097253 |
| -8.74504517680077 |
| 3.59921640251747 |
| 0.0986785956436051 |
| 2.39018027761352 |
| -8.89153343368889 |
| 6.74612856084042 |
| -6.34357637808887 |
| 0.974324495936571 |
| -5.75118910843588 |
| -5.32524297943689 |
| 0.233320839029204 |
| 2.42958084289046 |
| -4.13774588544686 |
| -3.1781073061328 |
| 6.35264081171482 |
| -0.284277809292234 |
| -6.38727961210327 |
| 0.87743417109209 |
| 5.36016361804991 |
| -5.85128506554213 |
| 4.61058363433875 |
| -5.36222839592847 |
| -5.62317561146097 |
| -1.17388852831286 |
| -8.43445032917299 |
| 1.75944681605193 |
| -0.518841191004441 |
| 10.4054759767891 |
| -3.74009509164728 |
| 1.60719815405301 |
| 3.05675500923681 |
| 0.257811821752085 |
| 0.824973207401172 |
| -5.39155656221618 |
| 1.62831243063232 |
| -7.74868921583325 |
| 5.40331609470385 |
| 3.41122172561381 |
| 2.90792357924266 |
| -2.16566013326889 |
| -1.06613029175844 |
| 0.748221647441056 |
| 1.77288400594657 |
| 5.41821949321303 |
| 71.4662783880632 |
| 79.5549725010292 |
| -51.1375412245011 |
| 6.76911677168516 |
| 3.44734468294956 |
| -11.5407219696333 |
| 6.45495826619629 |
| -17.7217042226517 |
| -4.84737887381539 |
| 2.54380522421502 |
| -1.30255547479811 |
| -0.143735687682749 |
| -2.92393952341314 |
| 3.84883142999416 |
| -6.80486360413863 |
| -10.3930167377364 |
| 0.703368384852809 |
| -4.57005342796754 |
| -14.8967712392108 |
| 9.11848423600458 |
| -5.61230581160271 |
| -0.356868061776026 |
| -7.45535559610681 |
| 3.1449844144106 |
| -5.99641154316316 |
| 3.67482381604771 |
| -6.50022092488376 |
| 3.82000258381765 |
| -6.94118953802547 |
| 5.3125928300218 |
| -2.17141520723459 |
| 2.06481821254300 |
| 18.8124095390010 |
| 29.1363832532801 |
| 4.78176225655341 |
| 24.0508556820117 |
| 6.33372390013318 |
| -3.41028673977996 |
| -5.96655090114672 |
| -19.8355183549774 |
| 1.31150441673805 |
| -11.3348630173189 |
| -7.47806952131947 |
| 0.337272434910744 |
| 7.64794255026442 |
| -10.5013505659781 |
| -4.2987393580338 |
| -5.84134022442765 |
| 2.33228715504117 |
| -6.52769402488758 |
| -5.35645866567666 |
| -8.16100279772797 |
| 2.88285197558827 |
| -3.2910023618586 |
| 0.461017454013984 |
| -0.392924223627119 |
| 5.06380765708235 |
| -3.28236716081273 |
| 3.64278933760926 |
| -8.81207297148063 |
| 3.52322272141521 |
| 0.421718026038036 |
| -3.87943733368087 |
| 10.5808572852408 |
| -18.8583582518176 |
| 8.28434804777385 |
| 18.0001242658283 |
| 4.74205961652291 |
| -9.69108311168003 |
| -2.0578692920958 |
| -3.26382216241785 |
| -7.8056908685785 |
| 5.86678977436316 |
| -1.47499245078251 |
| -10.3204290753499 |
| 2.69324972880895 |
| -6.97537268526014 |
| 0.230321626315401 |
| 2.22307118211342 |
| -1.43857918298102 |
| -0.804099692186355 |
| -7.17966084866197 |
| 0.427888529197389 |
| 6.9058417059311 |
| -8.83403246083247 |
| -2.00515909479896 |
| -0.0565459995913216 |
| -0.311953885847061 |
| -2.35348861458459 |
| -6.29621374680664 |
| 5.64831760454734 |
| -0.505107657549729 |
| -9.03502506796053 |
| 15.8213557398931 |
| -2.46493211798196 |
| -8.26296244430984 |
| 7.5109699019107 |
| -7.04100969000166 |
| 1.66614824009110 |
| -4.80197744396412 |
| 3.2429315517702 |
| -5.14853249633671 |
| 18.2127495495183 |
| -15.2732942549455 |
| 5.3280314453076 |
| 6.64885714861879 |
| -10.5516944616414 |
| 3.14727270727036 |
| 1.17250636156621 |
| -2.94171198666396 |
| 0.94903181644787 |
| -9.4386691069929 |
| -0.220579761752106 |
| 11.2088845856022 |
| -3.04851540090380 |
| -3.84275688394104 |
| 9.37925748565704 |
| -6.1568483762457 |
| -6.14243741185368 |
| -4.64102937553196 |
| 16.1414302993900 |
| -6.4443026561782 |
| 0.335124317113298 |
| -3.21315291252324 |
| -4.63477239135773 |
| 2.50086245915588 |
| 27.0373477026365 |
| -23.6638000377407 |
| 13.5594654663338 |
| 19.2508834397348 |
| -1.49414134958647 |
| 5.8693219696836 |
| -11.7527830258758 |
| 19.1300201025607 |
| -10.8842812522893 |
| 2.48489950708358 |
| -15.6010105554607 |
| 1.39361286785356 |
| 1.52483632438538 |
| -5.99296789058445 |
| 15.3920532922301 |
| -7.1654982335778 |
| 6.84978710520852 |
| -21.8142594250902 |
| 8.84930847447771 |
| 3.28990377053418 |
| -4.28486705341533 |
| -2.18441658045606 |
