Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast
time	Y[t]	F[t]	95% LB	95% UB	p-value (H0: Y[t] = F[t])	P(F[t]>Y[t-1])	P(F[t]>Y[t-s])	P(F[t]>Y[49])
37	8.9	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
38	8.8	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
39	8.3	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
40	7.5	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
41	7.2	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
42	7.4	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
43	8.8	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
44	9.3	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
45	9.3	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
46	8.7	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
47	8.2	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
48	8.3	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
49	8.5	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
50	8.6	8.7224	8.3834	9.0613	0.2396	0.9008	0.3268	0.9008
51	8.5	8.4165	7.8515	8.9815	0.386	0.2622	0.6569	0.386
52	8.2	7.8708	7.1423	8.5992	0.1878	0.0452	0.8408	0.0452
53	8.1	7.4103	6.6417	8.179	0.0393	0.022	0.7041	0.0027
54	7.9	7.4144	6.6403	8.1885	0.1095	0.0413	0.5145	0.003
55	8.6	8.5507	7.7743	9.3272	0.4505	0.9498	0.2646	0.551
56	8.7	9.0964	8.2928	9.9	0.1668	0.887	0.3098	0.9271
57	8.7	9.217	8.3467	10.0874	0.1221	0.8779	0.4259	0.9468
58	8.5	8.832	7.8806	9.7834	0.247	0.6072	0.6072	0.753
59	8.4	8.3358	7.3352	9.3364	0.45	0.3739	0.6049	0.3739
60	8.5	8.3784	7.3581	9.3987	0.4077	0.4835	0.5599	0.4077
61	8.7	8.5578	7.5282	9.5873	0.3933	0.5438	0.5438	0.5438

Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast Performance
time	% S.E.	PE	MAPE	Sq.E	MSE	RMSE
50	0.0198	-0.014	0	0.015	0	0
51	0.0342	0.0099	0.012	0.007	0.011	0.1048
52	0.0472	0.0418	0.0219	0.1084	0.0435	0.2084
53	0.0529	0.0931	0.0397	0.4757	0.1515	0.3892
54	0.0533	0.0655	0.0449	0.2358	0.1684	0.4103
55	0.0463	0.0058	0.0384	0.0024	0.1407	0.3751
56	0.0451	-0.0436	0.0391	0.1572	0.1431	0.3782
57	0.0482	-0.0561	0.0412	0.2673	0.1586	0.3982
58	0.055	-0.0376	0.0408	0.1102	0.1532	0.3914
59	0.0612	0.0077	0.0375	0.0041	0.1383	0.3719
60	0.0621	0.0145	0.0354	0.0148	0.1271	0.3565
61	0.0614	0.0166	0.0339	0.0202	0.1182	0.3438