Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast
time	Y[t]	F[t]	95% LB	95% UB	p-value (H0: Y[t] = F[t])	P(F[t]>Y[t-1])	P(F[t]>Y[t-s])	P(F[t]>Y[36])
24	204.2	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
25	196.6	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
26	198.8	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
27	207.5	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
28	190.7	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
29	201.6	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
30	210.5	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
31	223.5	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
32	223.8	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
33	231.2	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
34	244	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
35	234.7	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
36	250.2	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
37	265.7	265.7	237.771	293.629	0.5	0.8616	1	0.8616
38	287.6	281.2	218.7488	343.6512	0.4204	0.6867	0.9951	0.8347
39	283.3	296.7	192.1991	401.2009	0.4008	0.5678	0.9528	0.8084
40	295.4	312.2	159.2264	465.1736	0.4148	0.6444	0.9402	0.7865
41	312.3	327.7	120.5727	534.8273	0.4421	0.6201	0.8836	0.7683
42	333.8	343.2	76.7739	609.6261	0.4724	0.5899	0.8355	0.7531
43	347.7	358.7	28.2392	689.1608	0.474	0.5587	0.7887	0.7401
44	383.2	374.2	-24.7065	773.1065	0.4824	0.5518	0.77	0.7288
45	407.1	389.7	-81.7964	861.1964	0.4712	0.5108	0.745	0.719
46	413.6	405.2	-142.8073	953.2073	0.488	0.4973	0.7179	0.7103
47	362.7	420.7	-207.5482	1048.9482	0.4282	0.5088	0.7191	0.7026
48	321.9	436.2	-275.8536	1148.2536	0.3765	0.5802	0.6957	0.6957
49	239.4	451.7	-347.5782	1250.9782	0.3013	0.6249	0.6758	0.6894
50	191	467.2	-422.5931	1356.9931	0.2715	0.6921	0.6538	0.6837
51	159.7	482.7	-500.783	1466.183	0.2599	0.7195	0.6545	0.6784
52	163.4	498.2	-582.0438	1578.4438	0.2718	0.7305	0.6435	0.6736
53	157.6	513.7	-666.2812	1693.6812	0.2771	0.7197	0.631	0.6692
54	166.2	529.2	-753.409	1811.809	0.2895	0.7149	0.6174	0.6651
55	176.7	544.7	-843.348	1932.748	0.3017	0.7035	0.6096	0.6612
56	198.3	560.2	-936.0251	2056.4251	0.3177	0.6923	0.5917	0.6577
57	226.2	575.7	-1031.3729	2182.7729	0.335	0.6773	0.5815	0.6543
58	216.2	591.2	-1129.3286	2311.7286	0.3346	0.6612	0.5802	0.6512
59	235.9	606.7	-1229.8334	2443.2334	0.3462	0.6616	0.6027	0.6482
60	226.9	622.2	-1332.8327	2577.2327	0.3459	0.6507	0.6183	0.6454

Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast Performance
time	% S.E.	PE	MAPE	Sq.E	MSE	RMSE
37	0.0536	0	0	0	0	0
38	0.1133	0.0228	0.0114	40.96	20.48	4.5255
39	0.1797	-0.0452	0.0226	179.56	73.5067	8.5736
40	0.25	-0.0538	0.0304	282.24	125.69	11.2112
41	0.3225	-0.047	0.0337	237.16	147.984	12.1649
42	0.3961	-0.0274	0.0327	88.36	138.0467	11.7493
43	0.47	-0.0307	0.0324	121	135.6114	11.6452
44	0.5439	0.0241	0.0314	81	128.785	11.3483
45	0.6173	0.0446	0.0328	302.76	148.1156	12.1703
46	0.69	0.0207	0.0316	70.56	140.36	11.8474
47	0.7619	-0.1379	0.0413	3364	433.4182	20.8187
48	0.8329	-0.262	0.0597	13064.49	1486.0075	38.5488
49	0.9028	-0.47	0.0912	45071.29	4838.7215	69.5609
50	0.9717	-0.5912	0.127	76286.44	9942.13	99.7102
51	1.0395	-0.6692	0.1631	104329	16234.588	127.415
52	1.1063	-0.672	0.1949	112091.04	22225.6162	149.0826
53	1.172	-0.6932	0.2242	126807.21	28377.4747	168.4562
54	1.2366	-0.6859	0.2499	131769	34121.4483	184.7199
55	1.3001	-0.6756	0.2723	135424	39453.1616	198.6282
56	1.3627	-0.646	0.291	130971.61	44029.084	209.8311
57	1.4242	-0.6071	0.306	122150.25	47749.1395	218.5158
58	1.4848	-0.6343	0.3209	140625	51970.7695	227.971
59	1.5444	-0.6112	0.3336	137492.64	55689.1117	235.9854
60	1.6031	-0.6353	0.3461	156262.09	59879.6525	244.7032