Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast
time	Y[t]	F[t]	95% LB	95% UB	p-value (H0: Y[t] = F[t])	P(F[t]>Y[t-1])	P(F[t]>Y[t-s])	P(F[t]>Y[34])
22	7.9	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
23	8.6	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
24	8.7	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
25	8.7	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
26	8.5	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
27	8.4	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
28	8.5	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
29	8.7	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
30	8.7	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
31	8.6	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
32	8.5	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
33	8.3	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
34	8	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
35	8.2	8.0088	7.5818	8.4358	0.1901	0.5161	0.0033	0.5161
36	8.1	8.1633	7.5305	8.796	0.4223	0.4547	0.0482	0.6935
37	8.1	8.4943	7.7337	9.2549	0.1548	0.8452	0.298	0.8986
38	8	8.6632	7.9022	9.4242	0.0438	0.9266	0.6629	0.9562
39	7.9	8.5908	7.7971	9.3846	0.044	0.9277	0.6812	0.9277
40	7.9	8.4054	7.5819	9.229	0.1145	0.8855	0.411	0.8327
41	8	8.2856	7.462	9.1093	0.2483	0.8206	0.1621	0.7517
42	8	8.3052	7.4674	9.143	0.2376	0.7624	0.1778	0.7624
43	7.9	8.407	7.5506	9.2634	0.1229	0.8242	0.3294	0.8242
44	8	8.487	7.6276	9.3464	0.1334	0.9097	0.4882	0.8666
45	7.7	8.4893	7.6298	9.3488	0.0359	0.8677	0.667	0.8677
46	7.2	8.4355	7.574	9.2969	0.0025	0.9529	0.8391	0.8391
47	7.5	8.3843	7.5231	9.2455	0.0221	0.9965	0.6626	0.8091
48	7.3	8.3749	7.5125	9.2373	0.0073	0.9766	0.734	0.8029
49	7	8.4021	7.5365	9.2678	7e-04	0.9937	0.753	0.8187
50	7	8.4337	7.5666	9.3008	6e-04	0.9994	0.8365	0.8365
51	7	8.4437	7.5769	9.3105	5e-04	0.9995	0.8905	0.8421
52	7.2	8.4308	7.5644	9.2972	0.0027	0.9994	0.8851	0.8351
53	7.3	8.412	7.5459	9.278	0.0059	0.997	0.8244	0.8244
54	7.1	8.4036	7.5375	9.2697	0.0016	0.9937	0.8195	0.8195
55	6.8	8.4092	7.5424	9.2759	1e-04	0.9985	0.8752	0.8226
56	6.4	8.4201	7.5528	9.2873	0	0.9999	0.8288	0.8288
57	6.1	8.4263	7.559	9.2935	0	1	0.9496	0.8323
58	6.5	8.4243	7.5572	9.2914	0	1	0.9972	0.8312
59	7.7	8.4182	7.5513	9.285	0.0522	1	0.9811	0.8278
60	7.9	8.4139	7.5471	9.2807	0.1226	0.9468	0.9941	0.8253
61	7.5	8.4143	7.5473	9.2812	0.0194	0.8775	0.9993	0.8255
62	6.9	8.4176	7.5505	9.2847	3e-04	0.981	0.9993	0.8274

Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast Performance
time	% S.E.	PE	MAPE	Sq.E	MSE	RMSE
35	0.0272	0.0239	0	0.0366	0	0
36	0.0395	-0.0077	0.0158	0.004	0.0203	0.1424
37	0.0457	-0.0464	0.026	0.1555	0.0653	0.2556
38	0.0448	-0.0766	0.0386	0.4399	0.159	0.3987
39	0.0471	-0.0804	0.047	0.4772	0.2226	0.4718
40	0.05	-0.0601	0.0492	0.2555	0.2281	0.4776
41	0.0507	-0.0345	0.0471	0.0816	0.2072	0.4552
42	0.0515	-0.0367	0.0458	0.0931	0.1929	0.4392
43	0.052	-0.0603	0.0474	0.2571	0.2	0.4473
44	0.0517	-0.0574	0.0484	0.2372	0.2038	0.4514
45	0.0517	-0.093	0.0525	0.623	0.2419	0.4918
46	0.0521	-0.1465	0.0603	1.5264	0.3489	0.5907
47	0.0524	-0.1055	0.0638	0.782	0.3822	0.6182
48	0.0525	-0.1284	0.0684	1.1555	0.4375	0.6614
49	0.0526	-0.1669	0.0749	1.9659	0.5394	0.7344
50	0.0525	-0.17	0.0809	2.0554	0.6341	0.7963
51	0.0524	-0.171	0.0862	2.0843	0.7194	0.8482
52	0.0524	-0.146	0.0895	1.5149	0.7636	0.8738
53	0.0525	-0.1322	0.0918	1.2364	0.7885	0.888
54	0.0526	-0.1551	0.0949	1.6994	0.834	0.9133
55	0.0526	-0.1914	0.0995	2.5894	0.9176	0.9579
56	0.0526	-0.2399	0.1059	4.0807	1.0614	1.0302
57	0.0525	-0.2761	0.1133	5.4115	1.2505	1.1183
58	0.0525	-0.2284	0.1181	3.7029	1.3527	1.1631
59	0.0525	-0.0853	0.1168	0.5158	1.3192	1.1486
60	0.0526	-0.0611	0.1146	0.2641	1.2787	1.1308
61	0.0526	-0.1087	0.1144	0.8359	1.2623	1.1235
62	0.0526	-0.1803	0.1168	2.3031	1.2994	1.1399